What Are the Odds: Predicting Christian Kirk's 2022 Over/Unders

Can Christian Kirk hit these figures in his first year as a Jaguar?

After an offseason flurry of moves at the wide receiver position, it has come time to make predictions on which receivers will explode on the stat sheet, and which will potentially see their production fall off.

The Jacksonville Jaguars made a bold move to improve their receiver room this offseason, signing former Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Christian Kirk to a four-year, $72 million deal with $37 million guaranteed. But after signing Kirk to his big deal, what exactly should the expectations be for his production?

According to BetOnline, Kirk has been given some rather conservative over/unders for his first year as a Jaguar, with the site placing his 17-game production along the lines of 67 catches, 839 yards and four touchdowns. 

For context's sake, Kirk's career numbers averaged out for a 17-game season would have him averaging 72 catches for 881 yards and five touchdowns, which would put him just above all of these marks. Considering he did that while mostly playing out of position or as a second or third option, that bodes well for his chances to hit those figures in 2022.

Some over/unders for #Jaguars WR Christian Kirk for the 2022 season via @betonline_ag

Receptions: 67.5
Receiving yards: 839.5
Touchdowns: 4.5

— John Shipley (@_John_Shipley) July 13, 2022

But what do we make of each prediction, and what bets would we place? We break it down below. 

Receptions

If Kirk is going to hit any of these overs, this truly feels like the one. Not only is he set to play a premium position in the Jaguars' offense (slot receiver), but he is the Jaguars' best pure separator among their starting wide receivers and thus should receive a healthy volume of targets. There is a very real chance that Kirk is the Jaguars' focal point in between the 20s, helping them move the chains and get down the field. 

There is also the clear notion that Kirk is going to be who the Jaguars zero in on during high-leverage situations like third-downs. Kirk is looked at by the Jaguars as the best option to be Trevor Lawrence's safety valve to convert those critical downs, which alone should suggest he gets ample chances to produce.

"So when you start looking at free agency, you got somebody that plays multiple positions, somebody that is going to be a good third down, a big third down option for us going into the third downs, and he's just going to be somebody that helps out and be the security blanket for the most part on those most crucial downs for Trevor," Jaguars wide receivers coach Chris Jackson said this offseason. 

With this in mind, it is important to note that Pederson never coached any receivers with the Eagles who put up gaudy volume reception numbers. The only receiver to catch more than 67 passes in a season during Pederson's five-year tenure was Jordan Matthews, who caught 73 passes in 2016. Alshon Jeffery caught 65 in 2018, while Nelson Agholor caught 64 and 62 passes in 2018 and 2017 respectively. 

But when you factor in Kirk's past production and the role he is set to play in Jacksonville, the over feels like the right move here.

Receiving yards

Another number that few Pederson wide receivers have hit in the past is the 839-yard mark. Pederson only coached two wide receivers with the Eagles who recorded more than 800 yards: Jeffery (843 in 2018) and Matthews (804 in 2016). A big reason for this is the volume the tight ends received in Pederson's offense, along with the fact that the scheme allows the offense to spread the ball around to the entire skill room on a week-to-week basis. 

In a 17-game season with Lawrence as his quarterback, though, this doesn't seem like too hard of a figure for Kirk to hit. He only has one season in his career with more than 710 yards in a season (982 in 2021), but he will likely see a higher volume of targets in Jacksonville than he did in the last two years with the Cardinals. 

The important thing in this aspect is for Kirk to take advantage of his big-play chances. He is a vertical slot receiver who can stretch the field and track passes downfield from the middle of the field; the type of receiver that Lawrence didn't have last season. As long as Kirk cashes in on those big-play chances -- of which there will likely be many considering Lawrence's gun-slinging tendencies -- then he has a chance to hit this mark.

"He’s great. Just from a football IQ sense, I think he’s really quarterback friendly. The way he sees the field, different coverages unfold, the way he runs his routes, I just think he’s quarterback friendly," Lawrence said this offseason 

"And then obviously his speed is something that we really needed and it’s going to help us a lot. You guys saw today, he can fly and locate a ball, all those things. [He’s] really talented and we get along really well. Like I said, [we have] similar personalities and demeanor."

If Lawrence and Kirk can have the same connection on the field that they have had off the field so far, he could very well be the first Pederson receiver to creep close to 1,000 yards.

Touchdowns

This is a tough one, in large part because touchdowns are a truly fluky stat that can fluctuate wildly from year to year. Catching touchdowns is a skill, but there are a lot of factors that go into touchdowns and there are enough reasons to think Kirk could be the Jaguars' third option in the passing game in the red zone considering that is where Marvin Jones and Evan Engram are likely going to do a lot of damage. 

Four wide receivers caught more than four touchdowns in one season for Pederson from 2016-20: Jeffery (nine in 2017), Agholor (eight in 2017), Jeffery (six in 2018), and Greg Ward (six in 2020). Meanwhile, Kirk has caught more than four touchdowns in just two of his four seasons: six in 2020 and five in 2021. 

This one feels like 4.5 is just right, so I would probably lean toward the under. With that said, Kirk becoming the Jaguars'big-play option and turning some of those explosive catches into touchdowns is certainly a possibility since he may be the Jaguars' best vertical threat.