Revisiting 2023 Jaguars Predictions: Where Did We Go Wrong?

The end of a season always brings reflection. Reviewing what things went right, what things went wrong, and where questions may still remain.

Such is the case with the 2023 Jacksonville Jaguars, who saw their season end early after a 9-8 record and a second-place finish in the AFC South.

So what did we predict about the 2023 season? What did we get wrong and what did we nail? We take a look back and review below.

Prediction No. 1: Trevor Lawrence reaks franchise single-season record for touchdown passes, passing yards

What we said:

The Jaguars have everything in place for Trevor Lawrence to join the 5,000-yard club this season. They are returning Doug Pederson, offensive coordinator Press Taylor and quarterbacks coach Mike McCoy. They are returning a 1,000-yard receiver in Christian Kirk, two legitimate weapons in Zay Jones and Evan Engram, and a 1,000-yard rusher in Travis Etienne. They are also adding a Pro Bowl-level talent in Calvin Ridley, who could establish himself as one of the NFL's best receivers this season.

As a result, we have Lawrence breaking the two major Jaguars passing records: touchdown passes, which Blake Bortles holds with 35 from the 2015 season; and passing yards, which Bortles holds with 4,428. Our prediction is that Lawrence smashes both records, finishing with north of 5,000 yards and hitting 40 passing touchdowns.

What happened: Well ... this one didn't happen. Trevor Lawrence in general didn't have the season anyone thought he would. He completed 65.6% of his passes for 4,016 yards, 21 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, while ranking outside the top-15 in EPA/Play. Offensive line issues, turnovers, mistakes from the skill room, and Lawrence's own injuries all contributed to a disappointing season.

Ultimately, Lawrence's season ranked No. 4 in franchise history in passing yards (one spot behind his 2022 season) and No. 5 in passing touchdowns after finishing No. 2 in 2022. Lawrence was closer to breaking each record in 2022, so this was a miss.

Prediction No. 2: Calvin Ridley leads team in every major receiving category

What we said:

Christian Kirk was the Jaguars' clear No. 1 wide receiver a year ago, but we have that changing this year with the addition of former Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley. Ridley looked like a legitimate alpha receiver during the offseason, training camp and preseason, showing off rare game-changing ability the Jaguars didn't even have on last year's top-10 offense.

Kirk will still get his targets; so too will Zay Jones and Evan Engram. But Kirk's outside snaps are going to see a big dip with the addition of Ridley, whose presence could force the Jaguars into more 13 personnel looks with just one isolated receiver outside. Ridley will take away targets and snaps from everyone, but likely Kirk most especially. And with that as a reality, it makes the most sense to see Ridley finish as the top receiver.

What happened: Calvin Ridley ended up leading the team in receiving yards (1,016) and touchdown catches (eight) but second in catches (76), targets (136), and yards per game. Ridley had a solid season numbers wise, but maybe he wouldn't have led the team in receiving yards if Christian Kirk wasn't hurt for the final five games of the season.

Ridley had a good season, but it did feel underwhelming by most people's expectations, including Ridley's own. Maybe this changes next year if Ridley returns and has another offseason with Trevor Lawrence, but this one was a 50/50 hit.

Prediction No. 3: Travon Walker and Josh Allen combine for 16 sacks

What we said:

One thing the Jaguars must see happen in 2023 is a leap forward from their young pair of edge rushers. The Jaguars poured a top-10 pick into Josh Allen and last year's No. 1 pick into Travon Walker, but last year didn't see the duo light up the stat sheet as the Jaguars finished the year bottom-10 in sacks. A year after the duo combined for 10.5 sacks, we have their production increasing to 16 sacks between the two of them.

The pair had a strong training camp, but it still feels as if the Jaguars don't have the complete pass-rush unit to produce big-time results for any one player. It wouldn't be a shock if Allen hit double-digit sacks and Walker finished somewhere between six to eight sacks. Walker had several plays wiped out due to penalties last year and missed a number of near-sack in his own right, but he also had one of the lowest pass-rush win rates in the league among qualifying edge rushers. He should improve, but it is both more important and more probable for him to improve his down-to-down efficiency than it is for him to hit double-digit sacks.

What happened: Well ... that escalated quickly. This is one of my biggest whiffs, with Josh Allen breaking the prediction all by himself with 17.5 sacks -- the most in a season in franchise history. Only 17 other Jaguars in franchise history have ever hit 17.5 sacks in their entire Jaguars careers, but Allen did it in one season.

Travon Walker also smashed preseason expectations, finishing the year with 10 sacks. This comes just one year after Walker recorded 3.5 sacks, and his 6.5-sack increase was among the most of any second-year pass-rushers in 2023.

Prediction No. 4: Jaguars win AFC South, earn No. 2 seed

What we said:

There is a very real chance the Jaguars finish the 2023 regular-season with equal or more wins as the Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, and Buffalo Bills. The Bengals and Bills have several legitimate divisional foes who will push them, with the Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets, and Miami Dolphins chief among them. As for the Jaguars, they will play six games vs. a weak AFC South and four more games against a weak NFC South.

The Chiefs are the biggest threat to the No. 1 seed, though, and a Week 2 game vs. Kansas City could be the ultimate deciding factor. The Jaguars will have their work cut out for them vs. the Chiefs after Patrick Mahomes diced up their defense on two different occasions last year, especially with DaVon Hamilton ruled out. It seems like Chris Jones is unlikely to play, too, which obviously helps the Jaguars, but a likely Chiefs win could help decide exactly how the Jaguars finish 2023.

What happened: This one is obvious. Not only did the Jaguars not win the AFC South or earn the No. 2 seed, but they missed the playoffs entirely after losing five of their last six games. I put too much stock in the Jaguars naturally improving thanks to the continuity on both sides of the ball. This proved to be more of a detriment than a positive.

Prediction No. 5: Pass defense finishes as a bottom-10 unit

What we said:

The Jaguars' defense is hoping that consistency and continuity will produce improved results this fall. Jacksonville is more or less running it back on defense after a year in which the Jaguars' defense finished No. 26 in DVOA largely because of a pass defense that finished No. 30 in DVOA and finished bottom-seven in passing yards allowed per game, missed tackles, sacks, and sack percentage. The Jaguars are bringing back 11 of 11 starters, with the only change being the loss of Arden Key and a loss of Dawuane Smoot for four games.

Maybe a second year in the system helps the Jaguars work out any kinks that led to coverage busts a year ago. Maybe K'Lavon Chaisson finally turns the corner and helps alleviate the loss of Key. Maybe Caldwell is able to scheme up enough pressure to make up for any depth shortcomings up front. But the Jaguars are relying on a lot of maybes. For now, our bet is that the Jaguars' pass defense has another year of below-average results. Teams being forced to pass against them likely won't help their case, but the bed has been made in this regard.

What happened: The Jaguars' pass defense finished the season No. 10 in EPA/Play and No. 21 in success rate vs. the pass, so this was a miss. But it is worth remembering that the pass defense fell apart over the second half of the season, finishing No. 22 and No. 29 in EPA/Play and success rate vs. the pass respectively after their Week 9 bye. Over the second-half of the year, it was a bottom-10 pass defense.

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