So you’re saying there isn’t a chance?
With a Thursday night loss to the Denver Broncos, the New York Jets are not mathematically eliminated from the playoff hunt. Technically, they are still in. But the chance of them breaking their postseason slide? Next to nil.
With only a Monday night game left remaining on the Week 4 schedule, the Jets have a 3.0 percent chance of making the playoffs according to Football Outsiders. They hold a .8 percent chance of winning the AFC East (the Buffalo Bills at 4-0 have a 71.3 percent chance of winning the division and an 86.9 percent shot at the playoffs).
The loss to the Broncos, a 37-28 result where the Jets (briefly) led in the fourth quarter, saw the Jets playoff chances drop by 2.4 percent over the week. Denver is now 1-3 with the Thursday night win.
The Jets now have the worst playoff chances not just in the AFC (the Houston Texans, also 0-4, have an 8.8 percent chance) but in the entire NFL. Two winless teams in the NFC, the 0-3 Atlanta Falcons (13.7 percent) and the New York Giants (also at 0-4 but at 9.2 percent in the messy NFC East) all hold significantly better odds than the Jets.
The good news keeps rolling along…the Jets now have the best odds at the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft (17.8 percent) as well as securing a top five pick overall (57.3 percent).
One thing to watch as the season unfolds. In July, the Jets traded All-Pro (and disgruntled) safety Jamal Adams to the Seattle Seahawks for safety Bradley McDougald and draft picks. In the deal, the Jets get first round picks over the next two seasons.
The Seahawks currently have the longest odds in the NFL at a top five pick a .2 percent. Looks like the Jets will be picking at the beginning and the end of next spring’s draft.