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Denzel Mims is going to be a game-changer for the New York Jets. That game just may not be this year.

There is no denying that Mims can be a very special player for the Jets and fits the need for this team in terms of a wide receiver with speed who can stretch the field. Mims should absolutely contribute this year. But for an offense that is still very much growing, it certainly would be a lot to ask the Jets second round pick in the NFL Draft to be a prolific part of the offense as a rookie.

The over/under on touchdowns for Mims in 2020 stands at 5.5. It sounds very achievable and could well be, but getting 6.5six touchdowns as a rookie is a challenge. And since this is a new offense in many ways, featuring a line that will need time to gel, it may take time to get things clicking.

In 2019, the numbers weren’t so great.

Last year, wide receiver Jamison Crowder led the Jets with six touchdowns. Wide receiver Robby Anderson and tight end Ryan Griffin were tied for second with five receiving touchdowns each.

Through last year, in the 60 years that the organization has been in existence, a player has topped the six receiving touchdown number just 57 times. So to think that Mims, as a rookie, would be able to do that for an offense that is still coming together, might be a bit of a stretch. It is no slight on his talent, just simply a difficult task.

Complicating the issue is the fact that there may not be much of an offseason in the NFL given the COVID-19 pandemic, a situation that could well limit the rookie players from assimilating quickly into the playbook and the scheme.

The kid has talent and production, that much is clear.

Last year as a senior at Baylor, Mims had 66 catches for 1,020 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. If he realizes his vast potential, then Mims could and should have double-digit touchdown seasons throughout his NFL career.

Consider how hard it is for a rookie to put up big numbers, even when on a good team. The top wide receiver taken in the 2019 NFL Draft, Marquise Brown, had 46 catches for 584 yards and seven touchdowns for the Baltimore Ravens, who won their division. The next wide receiver taken, N'Keal Harry who went No. 32 to the New England Patriots, had 12 receptions for 105 yards and two touchdowns (in seven games). The Patriots as well won their division

The first wide receiver to go in the second round, Deebo Samuel to the San Francisco 49ers at No. 36, had 57 catches for 802 yards and three touchdowns. The 49ers, of course, made the Super Bowl.

None of the three wide receivers mentioned had poor years or were on pace for a poor season. It is simply a hard transition for most rookies to make and expecting Mims to make a massive jump from Baylor to the Jets is simply unreasonable. That the three wide receivers above all were on playoff teams and none had more than seven touchdowns (or were on track to do so) shows how much of a challenge it might be for Mims to top 5.5 touchdowns on a rebuilding team.

Given his size and speed, however, he clearly will be an impact player for a Jets team desperate for a playmaker. There just simply will be a learning curve along the way.