History says the New York Jets will be getting two late picks from the Seattle Seahawks
In trading Jamal Adams, it appears that the New York Jets got quite a return, including two first round picks from the Seattle Seahawks. They are picks that are projected, at least for this upcoming season, to be in the backend of the first round.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Seahawks are slated to win the NFC West and have the fifth best record in the league. Good news for Seattle fans but it means that the Jets will likely be picking at the back of the first round.
The data, according to Aaron Schatz of FootballOutsiders, projects Seattle’s natural pick in the 2021 NFL Draft to be at No. 28. The trade for Adams, an All-Pro safety, marginally increases the Seahawks win total.
“Seattle goes from 8.7 mean wins to 8.9 mean wins in our projections, but that’s enough to move them from eighth to fifth in the league,” Schatz said. “We already had Seattle has our NFC West favorites because of Russell Wilson and our expectation of some regression from the San Francisco 49ers. We would expect that pick the Jets are getting in 2021 to be pretty low in the first round.”
History doesn’t help matters either for an argument that Seattle will be picking early in the first round.
In the last five years, Seattle has held a natural first round pick four times. They picked no lower than No. 27 (happened twice in 2018, 2020) and held an average draft position rank of 28.5.
Rounding that number up to No. 29, the picks in the recent five years at that slot have been:
2020: Tennessee Titans – Isaiah Wilson (OT, Georgia)
2019: Seattle Seahawks – L.J. Collier (LB, Texas Christian; in 11 games had 3 tackles)
2018: Jacksonville Jaguars -Taven Bryan (DT, Florida; 53 career tackles, 3 sacks, 11 quarterback hits in two years)
2017: Cleveland Browns – David Njoku (TE, Miami; in 36 games with 20 starts has 1.066 receiving yards and nine touchdowns)
2016: Arizona Cardinals - Robert Nkemdiche (DT, Mississippi; 44 tackles, 3 sacks and 10 quarterback hits over four seasons)
There are certainly some solid players there. Bryan has produced well in Jacksonville in a non-glamorous role and Njoku has solid production but tremendous athleticism. Wilson was considered a bit of a project but thought to be a solid offensive tackle with upside.
History says that the Jets won’t get a like-for-like impact player late in the first round to replace Adams. But they can add quality and starting level pieces if they draft well.
The Jets sent Adams and a fourth round pick in 2022 to the Seahawks for starting safety Bradley McDouglad, first rounds picks in 2021 and 2022 and a third round pick in 2022.
Football Outsiders is the original football analytics site and was founded in 2003. All of their projections and opinions about the 2020 NFL season can be found in the new book Football Outsiders Almanac 2020, which is available in electronic version at FootballOutsiders.com and in print version at Amazon.com
