Sports Performance Psychologist Says The Patriots 'To Be Average At Best Next Year' And Thinks Jets Could Be Playoff-Bound

If the mental side of sports is any indicator, the New England Patriots are on the decline. So says a leading sports psychologist, who thinks the Patriots return to the Super Bowl may be a long way’s off.

This was a disappointing season for the Patriots, who over the last month of 2019 saw their season plummet, culminating in a Week 17 loss to the Miami Dolphins and then last weekend with a loss in the AFC Wild Card to the Tennessee Titans. There are questions about the Patriots – legitimate ones – concerning their future.

To this end, sports psychologist Dr. John F. Murray grades each teams on a series of metrics, ranking them based on mental performance. Things such as turnovers and improper execution as well as blown assignments can lead to a low ranking on Dr. Murray’s analytics, which is known as the Mental Performance Index (MPI).

And the Patriots, who were uncharacteristically sloppy this year for a Bill Belichick coached team, had a poor MPI during the second half of the season.

After Week 8, New England was second in Murray’s MPI rankings across the NFL as they held an 8-0 record after beating the Cleveland Browns. They finished the season seventh following their loss to the Dolphins, part of a 2-3 stretch to close out the year. It was quite a drop in performance from the Patriots, who were sloppy, heavily penalized and had a number of glaring mistakes over the second half of the season and in the playoffs.

“There are certainly opportunities in the AFC East, Jets included. The Patriots might have seen their best days,” Dr. Murray told Sports Illustrated.

“Bill Belichick will always be competitive but the status of Tom Brady, the non-existent receiving corps, and the horrible finish - losing to lowly Miami - spells trouble in Patriots land, and huge opportunity for the Jets, Bills and Dolphins. While I think the Patriots will continue to be competitive, it will be a long time before we see them in a Super Bowl again. I expect them to be average at best next year.”

Dr. Murray is one of the nation’s foremost sports psychologist and a highly-quoted authority on the impact of the mental side on sports, is the developer of the MPI. He is author of The Mental Performance Index: Ranking the Best Teams in Super Bowl History and recently won the World Series of Handicapping utilizing his MPI analytic to make picks.

The love from Dr. Murray for the New York Jets is founded on the team’s strong close to the year.

After a 1-7 start, the Jets finished the season 6-2 in their final eight games. This 7-9 record has the Jets pointing up in 2019.

They return a starting franchise quarterback in Sam Darnold and now will have a second full offseason in head coach Adam Gase’s system.

Plus, the Jets figure to have roughly $70 million in salary cap space and the No. 11 pick in the NFL Draft. They might not quite be a playoff-caliber team but they are building their way there.

“The Jets are a work in progress and a nice feel good story. They finished strong, improved in key areas, and have a still developing potential superstar at quarterback,” Dr. Murray said.

“But we all know what they say about potential. It means you haven’t done anything yet. If they can get some blocking for [Darnold], continue to reduce turnovers, greatly improve on careless penalties, and play with more precision and confidence, they have a chance to make the playoffs in 2020. It is only a chance, but not a bad one.”

Dr. Murray’s full Mental Performance Index (MPI) for the NFL at the end of Week 17:

1. Ravens

2. Chiefs

3. Saints

4. Packers

5. 49ers

6. Eagles

7. Patriots

8. Titans

9. Seahawks

10. Bills

11. Rams