ESPN Projects the New York Jets to Miss the Playoffs, Have a Losing Record

The New York Jets are taking a step back in terms of their record according to a simulation run by ESPN. In doing so, however, the Jets actually have a better finish in the AFC East.

ESPN ran a simulation of the NFL season, a total of 20,000 times according to the study’s author Seth Walder. If that name sounds familiar, Walder was a Jets reporter and occasional Tim Tebow biographer for the New York Daily News for several years before moving to ESPN where he explains numbers and provides analysis. His Twitter bio is here.

Walder picked out one of the simulations, No. 3,869 to be exact, to project the storylines for the season.

For the Jets, this projection has a final record of 5-11. This is good enough to be tied for second place in the AFC East along with the New England Patriots.

The division is won by the 11-5 Buffalo Bills. The rebuilt Miami Dolphins are projected to go 4-12.

The Jets start the season with a 28-7 loss at the Buffalo Bills, so no reason to watch Sunday’s season opener. Then they get crushed in Week 2, 59-28, in their home opener against the San Francisco 49ers. So take the dog for a long walk the following weekend too.

But all is not lost! Or is it?

The Jets rebound to win four of their next six games. They do in part by beating the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 8. This puts the Jets at 4-4 on the year.

They then don’t win again till Week 13, including a pair of losses to the Dolphins. They get that win at the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 13 then close out the year with all losses.

Another Jets season, according to ESPN, without the playoffs.

The full projections from ESPN (after 20,000 simulations) have the Jets win-loss record at 6.8-9.2, so a repeat of the 7-9 season. They have a 23 percent chance of making the playoffs and an. 11.1 percent chance of winning the AFC East.