Key Matchup Detroit Lions Must Win Against Pittsburgh Steelers

The Lions’ ground game, led by Jahmyr Gibbs, should be able to succeed against a Steelers run defense that will be without both EDGEs T.J. Watt (lung) and Nick Herbig (hamstring) Sunday afternoon.

Pittsburgh, which has given up the 14th-most rushing yards this season (1,692), has permitted at least 200 rushing yards in two of its past three games, including 249 yards in Week 13 against the Bills.

Watt, a four-time first-team All-Pro defender, will miss only the 13th game of his nine-year career. The Steelers own just a 2-10 record in games played without Watt.

When both Watt and Herbig have been active the past three seasons, the Steelers have allowed a 44.8 percent offensive success rate, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Without the two of them, that number increases to 52.2 percent – a percentage ranking at the very bottom of the NFL for that span. Pittsburgh, without both defenders, has also permitted a league-worst 50 percent third-down conversion rate.

All of the above should bode well for Gibbs, who has rushed for 5.5 yards a carry and 1,100 total yards this season. The 23-year-old, by the way, has produced 385 of those yards and eight of those touchdowns while running around the edges this season.

Yet, it’s also important to note the third-year back is coming off a measly 38-yard effort on the ground against the Rams. And Detroit’s ground game produced just 70 total yards in Los Angeles, including an inefficient 3.5 yards per carry. It paled in comparison to the Rams’ 159 total yards on the ground and 5.5 yards per rush attempt.

In addition, Gibbs will still have to deal with Pittsburgh All-Pro defensive tackle Cameron Heyward. Although Heyward is now 36 years old, he is still having a mightily productive season. In fact, he’s recorded the highest Pro Football Focus overall grade among all interior defensive linemen (90.1). And on top of that, he’s earned an impressive 83.0 run-defense mark, the third-best run-defense grade among 126 qualified interior linemen.

Subsequently, it won’t be easy for Gibbs to consistently get to the second and third levels against Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Teryl Austin’s unit. However, with both Watt and Herbig out plus familiarity with Austin from his days in Detroit, the Lions should be able to have a productive day on the ground with Gibbs leading the way.

I like the odds of the dual-threat runner bouncing back from a subpar effort against the Rams and three straight games with under 70 rushing yards. And at this present juncture, I’m willing to predict that Gibbs records 79 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries against the Steelers.

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