Predicting Long-Term Contract for T.J. Hockenson

Is T.J. Hockenson going to receive a long-term contract extension from the Detroit Lions?

T.J. Hockenson is certainly deserving of a long-term contract extension with the Detroit Lions, the team that drafted him No. 8 overall in the 2019 NFL Draft.

Since then, the 6-foot-5, 248-pound tight end has been a steady contributor for the Lions. In fact, he's hauled in a total of 160 passes for 1,673 yards and 12 touchdowns in three seasons (40 games) in the Motor City.

His best season came in his Pro Bowl campaign in 2020, during which the Iowa product amassed 67 receptions for 723 yards and six touchdowns.

Going into Hockenson's fourth season as a pro, Detroit general manager Brad Holmes and the team's front office have a decision to make regarding the former first-rounder: whether or not to pick up the fifth-year option in his rookie contract. The deadline to do so is May 2.

The answer is likely a resounding yes from the organization.

If Holmes & Co. do go in that predicted direction, it's projected that Hockenson's fifth-year salary will add up to a fully guaranteed $9.3 million.

If that figure seems kind of steep, remember, it's the case because of Hockenson's status as a one-time Pro Bowler.

It begs the question: Shouldn't the Lions just extend him to lessen the financial burden over the long haul, including to minimize the early salary-cap hits from the contract?

To me, it would seem like the best-scenario for Detroit, when it comes to handling the future of the soon-to-be fourth-year pro.

Now, you're probably wondering about the kind of contract Hockenson could be in the market for. 

Well, for starters, he shouldn't get as lucrative of a deal as the Baltimore Ravens' Mark Andrews, the Kansas City Chiefs' Travis Kelce or the San Francisco 49ers' George Kittle -- all of whom are better blocking tight ends and subsequently, more well-rounded players at the position. Those guys have contracts that average $14-$15 million a year.

Among tight ends, Hockenson is a tier below the Kelce's and the Kittle's of the world. 

A more accurate player comp for "Hock" is New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry. Henry signed a three-year deal with the Patriots an offseason ago that pays him approximately $12.5M a season.

While Hockenson doesn't have as big of a track record of being productive as Henry, who was drafted by the then-San Diego Chargers in the second round of the 2016 NFL Draft, he is younger than the former Charger (Hock will be 25 in 2022), and he does possess more upside as a pass-catcher. 

So, a contract in the neighborhood of Henry's is definitely feasible. 

At this juncture, I'm going to say Hockenson receives an extension of four years, $48 million, which would allow the Iowa native to remain a member of the Lions through the 2027 season (when you factor in the fifth-year option).