Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat Giants on Monday Night
GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers will carry a three-game winning streak into Monday night’s game at the New York Giants. If the Packers can make it four in a row, they’d have the third-longest winning streak in the NFL.
Imagine that after a four-game losing streak dropped them to 2-5.
Here are three reasons why the Packers will get it done and maintain their spot in the NFC playoff race.
1. Beating the Blitz
Back in October, you might have put this one as a reason why the Packers would lose. But the Jordan Love-led Packers offense has been playing beyond its years from this perspective.
Last week against the Chiefs, Love was blitzed on 41.0 percent of his dropbacks and ripped them for 12-of-16 for 97 yards, one touchdown and a rating of 110.7, according to Pro Football Focus. Against the Lions, Love was blitzed on 42.4 percent of his dropbacks. While he was only 7-of-14, he threw for 118 yards and one touchdown. Chargers coach Brandon Staley saw a young quarterback and went on the attack. Big mistake. Blitzed 60.5 percent of the time, Love was 16-of-24 for 156 yards.
All that sets the stage for a matchup against the Giants and their esteemed defensive coordinator, Don Martindale. Only the Vikings have blitzed more frequently than the Giants this season.
“Coach Martindale’s a guy that I’ve had experience going against quite a few times when he was in Baltimore,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “He kicked the crap out of us when I was in Tennessee and he was in Baltimore. That was a humbling day, but he’s a guy that he does a great job just putting people in position.
“You never feel easy going against a team that he’s coaching because you know he can deploy a number of different blitzes and a number of different looks, and I’m certain that coming off a bye week there’s going to be something that they haven’t put on tape.”
Love hasn’t always beaten the blitz – he’s completed 60.7 percent of his passes – but he hasn’t really been beaten, either. According to PFF, he hasn’t thrown an interception against the blitz this season. As you’d expect, opposing coordinators have put Love to the test. He – and the rest of the offense – has gotten better with each week.
“It’s going to be a challenge,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “It’s going to be a road environment, so we’ll kind of see how that atmosphere is. But we’ve faced a lot of teams like this this year. There’s been a bunch this season that will bring their all-out pressures at any minute.
“So, it’s been good for us training the guys into that and it’s been really good for Jordan of just different answers that he can get into, whether it’s protection or working different routes down the field. It’s good for all them just to keep progressing and keep communicating and seeing different things.”
The progress, as in all things related to the passing game, is obvious and provides optimism that the Packers will have success against the Giants.
“I think we did some good things against it,” Love said of last week vs. the Chiefs. “We knew the first time we played them it was a lot of what their plan was, was to pressure us. So, I think we did a good job of handling it, picking it up, scoring some points on it and then, obviously, it goes back to them whether they want to do it again.”
2. Pass Rush
At the time of his torn ACL, Giants quarterback Daniel Jones was the most-frequently sacked quarterback in the NFL with a sack rate of 15.8 percent. That’s nothing. His replacement, rookie Tommy DeVito, has been sacked 21.1 percent of the time.
If you think Green Bay’s offensive line has been something of a house of cards, then the Giants’ offensive line is a pile of rubble after the house has been bulldozed. Giants quarterbacks have absorbed 69 sacks. That’s the fifth-most in the NFL over the last 35 years – and only nine short of Arizona’s 78 in 1997.
And there are five games to go.
DeVito has thrown 105 passes and been sacked 28 times. By contrast, Love has thrown 408 passes and been sacked 24 times.
Right tackle Evan Neal, the seventh pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, was supposed to pair with left tackle Andrew Thomas, the fourth pick of the 2020 draft, to provide a formidable duo on the edge. Thomas is a high-quality player but Neal has missed most of the season due to injuries and is out for Monday night.
According to PFF, Thomas has allowed three sacks, left guard Justin Push has allowed five in seven games, rookie center John Michael Schmitz has allowed three in nine games, right guard Ben Bredeson has allowed four in 11 games and right tackle Tyre Phillips has allowed two in six games.
Giants quarterbacks have been pressured on 28.8 percent of their dropbacks, worst in the league, according to SportRadar. They’ve gone from bad (5.8 sacks per game allowed for the season) to worse (6.7 sacks per game allowed the last three games). Bad protection and a rookie quarterback is as bad a combination as slathering mayo on a brat.
While just 21st in sack percentage, Green Bay’s pass rush has been strong all season. According to SportRadar, Joe Barry’s unit has pressured the quarterback on 23.7 percent of the dropbacks, the fifth-highest rate in the league.
Anything less than a feeding frenzy by Rashan Gary, Preston Smith and Kenny Clark would be a disappointment.
3. Situational Dominance
The Giants have won two in a row but are having a terrible season. They’ve been outgained by 105.7 yards per game, worst in the league by almost 30 yards and about 80 yards worse than the one-win Panthers.
On a per-play basis, the Giants on offense are 31st in yards, 30th in passing and 32nd in sacks. Defensively, they are 29th in yards, 31st in rushing and 31st in sacks.
So, there are advantages almost everywhere you look.
Where Green Bay has a huge edge is against New York’s offense in the two key situations. The Giants are 31st on third down (30.9 percent conversions) and 31st in the red zone (40.0 percent touchdowns). While Green Bay’s defense is just 25th on third down, it’s strength in the red zone (48.8 percent touchdowns) is the big reason why it ranks ninth in points allowed despite being 19th in yards.
