Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose to Cowboys in Wild-Card Game
GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Dallas Cowboys have everything in their favor entering Sunday’s NFC wild-card game against the Green Bay Packers.
They’re No. 1 in scoring and No. 5 in turnover differential. They have a 7-0 edge in Pro Bowlers and almost impeccable health. They’re undefeated at home and built to win the Super Bowl.
The Cowboys are 7.5-point favorites at SI Sportsbook. Here’s why the Cowboys not only will win the game but perhaps do so in lopsided fashion.
1. Cowboys’ Offensive Firepower
While Green Bay’s defense played much better in the final two games of the season, it’s easy to see the Cowboys putting up 40.
Quarterback Dak Prescott is a top MVP candidate who led the NFL in touchdown passes, was second in rating and third in yards. Tony Pollard topped 1,000 rushing yards and led all running backs in yards per touch. Receiver CeeDee Lamb led the NFL in receptions by a huge margin. Jake Ferguson finished ninth among tight ends with 71 receptions. Brandin Cooks added eight touchdowns.
Where do you start if you’re defensive coordinator Joe Barry? When the Packers were upset at home by the Buccaneers last month, Barry started with Mike Evans. Evans was held in check but quarterback Baker Mayfield had the game of his life.
Thus, Barry can’t be too preoccupied with Lamb. At the same time, he’s got to figure out a way to limit his production – perhaps without Jaire Alexander.
Three pertinent notes on Lamb:
First, he ranked third in the league with 15 receptions on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield.
Second, he ranked first in the league with 69 receptions, 907 yards and eight touchdowns while in the slot. Can Keisean Nixon keep Lamb in check?
Third, he forced 20 missed tackles, fifth-most among receivers.
“They do a great job of putting him in different positions to get the football,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “I think Dak’s playing at a really high level. You could argue he’s playing as well as anybody in the league. And there’s guys around him as well that take pressure off of him. They’ve got multiple people around him, but he’s an incredible talent, and it jumps off the screen. His ability to get YAC is as good as anybody.”
Add it all together, the Cowboys’ top-ranked scoring offense finished second on third down. Green Bay’s defense finished 25th.
2. Takeaways and Taking Away Big Plays
The Cowboys finished fifth in points allowed because they make big plays and limit big plays.
Over the last eight games, the Packers have only six giveaways; three of those came in the embarrassing loss at the Giants. The Cowboys finished 12th with 26 takeaways, including eighth with 17 interceptions.
It starts up front with a powerful pass rush spearheaded by Micah Parsons, who will line up here, there and everywhere. He ranked seventh with 14 sacks and fourth with 33 quarterback hits.
“Micah’s a freak show, a game-wrecker and you better know where he’s at,” LaFleur said.
Cornerback DaRon Bland led the NFL with nine interceptions and set a league record with five pick-sixes.
“Elite ball skills,” receiver Romeo Doubs said.
Turnovers will be huge because they’re always huge. Big plays will be critical, too. Green Bay finished third in the league with 40 completions of 25-plus yards. Dallas ranked fourth with 23 completions allowed of 25-plus yards.
“Really good defense. Definitely one of the best defenses we’ve seen all year,” quarterback Jordan Love said. “But, going back to Kansas City game, Detroit, those are two games we played with really good defenses, as well. Keeping that mindset, we have to play our best ball. Obviously, going into the playoffs, the room for error shrinks. We’ve got to be able to take advantage of every play, execute every play and be able to play at a high level against them. They do a really good job.”
3. Special Teams
As if there aren’t enough mismatches on offense and defense, there’s special teams. In Rick Gosselin’s annual rankings, the Cowboys finished 12th and the Packers plunged to 29th.
While Green Bay’s Keisean Nixon was the All-Pro returner, pint-sized KaVontae Turpin averaged 29.2 yards per kickoff return to help the Cowboys finish third in average starting position after a kickoff.
“He’s a tremendous challenge,” Packers special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia said. “He’s got great speed, he’s got great vision, he can make you miss and he can score. He can go the distance. He’s really fast, anyway, but he’s extremely fast in that particular stadium. … He has this slow and then go pace to him, and he’s just really a good player. We’ll see how it works out, but he’s a challenge.”
The Cowboys have advantages in almost every phase.
Kickoff: Dallas’ Brandon Aubrey will take Nixon out of the game. He ranked first in touchback percentage. Can Green Bay take Turpin out of the game? Perhaps not. Green Bay’s Anders Carlson ranked last in touchback percentage, though the coverage unit was strong.
“He hasn’t [given up return opportunities] in that stadium, unless you’re just bound and determined to return it,” Bisaccia said of Aubrey.
Punt: Dallas’ Bryan Anger ranked second with a net average of 44.9 yards. Green Bay’s Daniel Whelan was 27th with a 39.7 net.
“He can almost put it anywhere he wants,” Bisaccia said of Anger. “He’s been in the league a long time. He’s got a tremendous throwing arm. He’s got a bunch of fakes in his basket, as well.”
Kicker: Aubrey was 36-of-38 on field goals, a 94.7 percent success rate that was third-best in the league. He made a 60-yarder. He was 49-of-52 on extra points. Carlson missed a league-high 11 kicks. He was 27-of-33 on field goals, ranking ninth-worst at 81.8 percent, and 34-of-39 on extra points, ranking third-worst at 87.2 percent.
“Every kick has its own story,” Carlson said. “That’s something I’ve talked about the whole year. No matter if it’s a perfect ball, an A-plus ball or a miss, the next kick’s going to be a new story. So, just writing the story the best way I can.”
Plus, the Cowboys tied for the league lead with three blocks.
