Analyze This - Current Postseason Odds Have Patriots Statistically Sitting Pretty
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The more things change, the more they stay the same.
After a disappointing 7-9 finish to the 2020 NFL season, many seemed all too eager to dismiss the New England Patriots as legitimate contenders in the league’s landscape for the foreseeable future. Starting the 2021 season 2-4 did little to change the minds of New England’s detractors, as certain regions of NFL fandom giggled with delight. The Patriots were no longer a threat. At best, they would be middle-of-the-pack.
Yet, to paraphrase Michael Corleone, ‘…just when you thought they were out, they pulled you back in.”
Winners of seven straight, the Patriots continue to flex their muscle in the AFC. Through thirteen games in 2021, the New England Patriots have not only exceeded the expectations of their fan base, but they have also returned to national prominence. The Pats entered their bye week with a record of 9-4, atop the AFC East division, as well as just one notch below the Kansas City Chiefs in the win column for the top seed in the AFC playoff picture.
While New England continues to win with the familiar formula of smart, complementary football in all three phases, as well as exemplary coaching, their on-field success has led to a significant increase in their chances of qualifying for the 2021 postseason.
In fact, the Patriots enter Week 15 with a chance to earn a spot in the postseason:
Per NFL Communications, New England clinches playoff berth with:
(as of Saturday, December 18, 2021)
- NE win + MIA loss or tie + CLE loss + BAL loss OR
- NE win + MIA loss or tie + CLE loss + DEN loss or tie + PIT loss or tie OR
- NE win + MIA loss or tie + CLE-LV tie + DEN loss + BAL loss OR
- NE win + MIA loss or tie + DEN-CIN tie + BAL loss
NOTE: There are other scenarios for New England that involve multiple ties.
Not only are the Patriots back to their winning ways, they are also back to being mentioned as serious contenders to bring home the franchise’s seventh Super Bowl championship.
And, the numbers support that claim.
The New York Times, FiveThirtyEight and Football Outsiders utilize advanced analytics to provide numerous playoff odds and scenarios for NFL teams. Based on each of their statistical models, the Patriots are among the top five teams when ranked for potentially making the playoffs, winning their division, earning a first-round bye and winning Super Bowl LVI.
Heading into Saturday’s matchup with the Indianapolis Colts, here is a look at the Pats’ postseason prognostications
(as of December 14, 2021)
New York Times:
Make Playoffs: 99%
Win Division: 80%
First-round bye: 47% (first in AFC)
Win Super Bowl: 13% (second in NFL, tied with Kansas City Chiefs)
Cred: New York Times
The New York Times projections show that the Patriots chances of making the playoffs have increased by forty percentage points in the past five weeks. During that same span, only the Kansas City Chiefs (49 percentage-point increase) and the San Francisco 49ers (50 percentage-point increase) have experienced a greater rise in postseason stock.
FiveThirtyEight
Make playoffs: 98%
Win division: 80%
First-round bye: 47% (first in AFC)
Win Super Bowl: 15% (third in NFL)
FiveThirtyEight uses the Elo Rating system, which is a measure of strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent in determining playoff probability. In short, Elo assigns each team a power rating (the NFL average is around 1500). In both their traditional Elo rating, as well as a quarterback-adjusted rating (based on the team’s likely starter in its next game and how much better or worse that QB is than the opponent’s top starter, the Patriots and fourth in the NFL, behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1st), Kansas City Chiefs (2nd) and Green Bay Packers (3rd).
Football Outsiders
Make playoffs: 99.7%
Win division: 84.9%
First-round bye: 64% (first in AFC)
Win Super Bowl: 29.2% (first in NFL)
In addition to providing New England with the best odds for clinching a first-round-bye, as well as winning the Super Bowl, Football Outsiders also places the Pats in five of their most-likely Super Bowl LVI scenarios.
Which team currently is best-positioned to match up with the Pats at SoFi Stadium on Sunday, February 13? According to Football Outsiders, it is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have a 17.8% chance to meet New England for this season’s Lombardi Trophy.
Despite the excitement surrounding the speculation, the Patriots will be singular in focus as they enter the final stretch of the 2021 regular season. With four games remaining, New England has set its sights squarely on the Indianapolis Colts, and their showdown on Saturday night at 8:20pm at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.
As for the future beyond that, do not expect the New England Patriots to think of anything more than one game at a time.
