And Then, There Were Two: Patriots Postseason Odds Still High Heading Into Final Two Weeks of 2021 Season
Despite a 33-21 loss to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, the New England Patriots still find themselves in relatively good standing when it comes to their postseason hopes.
At 9-6 through fifteen games in the 2021 NFL season, the Patriots are highly-likely to be bound for the playoffs. However, their reign as favorites for the AFC East Division have taken a significant hit, as have their chances for a top seed in the Conference.
With two weeks remaining in the regular season, here is a look at the Patriots playoff chances and clinching scenarios, heading into Week Seventeen.
For the Division: A Must-Win in Week Seventeen
Despite the insistence of some that the AFC East is ‘weak', three of the four teams in the Division would qualify for the postseason if it began today. As a result, the Division is now a three team race.
AFC East Standings (as of Tuesday, December 28):
1. Bills (9-6)
2. Patriots (9-6)
3. Dolphins (8-7)
4. Jets (4-11)
In spite of losing two straight, the Patriots still have a path to claim the AFC East title. In addition to a victory over Jacksonville on Sunday, New England would need Buffalo to lose at least one of its final two games. Unfortunately for the Pats, Buffalo closes the season with a relatively easy slate; home matchups against the Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets. Should the Bills win both of their remaining matchups, they would repeat as Division champions.
Winners of seven straight games, the Miami Dolphins have returned to the postseason discussion. Miami’s 20-3 victory over the New Orleans Saints on Monday night pushed them into the third and final wild-card spot in the AFC. The Dolphins already hold a victory over the Patriots, having defeated New England in Week One at Gillette Stadium. They still have a shot at first place in the AFC East, as well. The Dolphins would need to win both of their remaining games, (including their Week Eighteen matchup with the Patriots) with the Bills losing their final two regular-season games.
Conference Shuffle
With Week Sixteen now in the books, the Patriots will enter the penultimate week of the 2021 season as the sixth-seeded team in the AFC. At present, the Kansas City Chiefs are the only AFC team that has clinched a playoff spot.
AFC Playoff Picture (as of Tuesday, December 28):
1. Kansas City Chiefs (11-4; AFC West winner)
2. Tennessee Titans (10-5; AFC South leader)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (9-6; AFC North leader)
4. Buffalo Bills (9-6; AFC East leader)
5. Indianapolis Colts (9-6; first wild card)
6. New England Patriots (9-6; second wild card)
7. Miami Dolphins (8-7; third wild card)
In the hunt: Baltimore Ravens (8-7), Los Angeles Chargers (8-7), Las Vegas Raiders (8-7), Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7-1), Cleveland Browns (7-8), Denver Broncos (7-8)
Pats Playoff Hopes — Still Pretty Good
While their loss to Buffalo was far from ideal, the Patriots still have control of their own postseason fate. Though their chances to contend for the top spots in the Division and Conference have decreased, New England’s prospects of qualifying for the postseason are strong. According to the analytics of FiveThirtyEight, the Pats are close to being a statistical lock to return to the postseason, in some capacity.
FiveThirtyEight uses the Elo Rating system, which is a measure of strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent in determining playoff probability. In short, Elo assigns each team a power rating (the NFL average is around 1500). In both their traditional Elo rating, as well as a quarterback-adjusted rating (based on the team’s likely starter in its next game and how much better or worse that QB is than the opponent’s top starter) the Patriots are currently ranked ninth in the NFL.
Here are the Patriots postseason odds, per FiveThirtyEight, as of Tuesday, December 28
Make playoffs: 94% (-3% change from previous week)
Win division: 10% (-56% change from previous week)
First-round bye: 0.4% (-22.6% change from previous week)
Win Super Bowl: 2% (-7% change from previous week)
Courtesy, FiveThirtyEight, 28 Dec 2021
Win, and Get In…probably
The Patriots may clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars coupled with a loss by either the Miami Dolphins (at Tennessee Titans) or the Las Vegas Raiders (at Indianapolis Colts). Though the Colts are entering Week Seventeen as one of the hottest teams in the NFL, their chances of victory may have dipped a bit. Starting quarterback Carson Wentz was placed on COVID-19/Reserve on Tuesday. However, there is a chance that Wentz may be able to suit up this weekend. Also on Tuesday, the NFL and NFLPA adopted the new CDC guidelines that reduce the quarantine time to five days (previously, ten days) for all COVID-19 positive players who are asymptomatic, including those who are unvaccinated.As Wentz is unvaccinated, Tuesday’s news may provide some hope for his Week Seventeen status.
The Patriots host the Jacksonville Jaguars at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts at 1:00pm ET for the first game of the calendar year in 2022, on Sunday, January 2.
