Jones, Patriots QBs Named Top ‘Overperformers’ by NFL.com
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New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones had quite the rookie season in 2021.
For the first time since 1993, the New England Patriots invested first-round draft capital in a quarterback. While the ‘93 iteration of the team chose Drew Bledsoe with the first overall selection, the Patriots selected Jones from the University of Alabama at number 15 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Selecting a quarterback so early in the draft seemingly indicated that the Patriots were sending a clear message. Like Bledsoe before him, Jones would be the Patriots’ plan for the future of the position.
At present, the future looks bright in Foxboro.
While Jones’ rookie campaign was far from perfect, he made quite the impression on his coaches, teammates and fans with stellar play on the field. Moreover, he turned the heads of many NFL analysts. While expectations can be a bit unreasonable for rookie quarterbacks, the 23-year-old not only lived up to his expectation, an argument can be made that he exceeded them. In fact, the argument has been made by a prominent NFL analyst.
According to NFL Network Analytics Expert Cynthia Frelund, Jones put New England’s quarterbacks at the top of her annual list of overperforming / underperforming units in 2021. For the past few seasons, Frelund has identified over performing and underperforming units, using her self-created model, to measure the difference between preseason expectations and actual game outputs.
In order to come up with the preseason expectation rankings, Frelund projects each team's win share by unit. “Preseason projections are more subjective than postseason win-share metrics,” Frelund explains. ‘The preseason rankings blend more certain factors (veteran personnel, free-agent signings, salaries) with less certain clues (how the new draft class is likely to impact production, how injuries will come into play). Actual game outputs are calculated based on the unit's actual win share in each game played.”
Based on her analysis, the Patriots quarterbacks, meaning Mac Jones, finished the season ranked 15th, climbing 11 spots from their preseason win-share ranking of 26th.
“There was plenty of uncertainty around the QB position back when the Patriots decided to install a rookie starter, prompting the release of veteran Cam Newton. But Mac Jones -- who took all but 14 pass attempts for the team this season -- far exceeded the preseason ranking given to this unit. The 15th overall selection in last April's draft (and the fifth QB chosen in Round 1) not only fared as the best rookie passer this season, but he also ranked in the top five in the NFL in several metrics, driving his value of 15th to finish the season.
“Per Next Gen Stats, Jones had a 71.4 completion percentage against two-safety shells, second in the league behind Kyler Murray’s 72.8. On quick passes, he had a 77.4 completion percentage, ranking fifth, and his 74.4 completion percentage on play-action was second only to Jimmy Garoppolo (75.4%).”
Frelund’s complete rankings are available HERE.
The 23-year-old led all rookies with a 67.6 completion percentage and a 92.5 passer rating, while compiling 3,801 yards and 22 touchdowns. He completed at least 70 percent of his attempts in nine games and twice threw for 300-plus yards through the air. Jones was the centerpiece of a rookie class, which was chosen as the best in the NFL this past year by Pro Football Focus (PFF). His PFF grade ranked 12th among quarterbacks. The Alabama product was also selected to the PFWA's All-Rookie team along with teammate Christian Barmore.
Jones was widely viewed as the Offensive Rookie of the Year front-runner before enduring a few rough late-season outings. Down the stretch, Jones clearly had his struggles. He was less accurate, made more rookie mistakes and had difficulty when defenses were able to adjust to take away his preferred routes and targets. However, he regularly maintained his poise, his focus and his drive to constantly improve. Those qualities will continue to make him the ideal steward of New England’s timing-based passing game, predicated on vertical routes and completions from quick, accurate throws. Overall, his performance in 2021 has provided palpable hope of a bright future for New England at the quarterback position.
Jones was recently named to the 2022 Pro Bowl as an alternate. The NFL equivalent of their ‘all-star-game’ will be held on Sunday, February 6 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. He will also serve as the AFC’s quarterback representative in the annual Skills Showdown event.O Jones is expected to compete, on Thursday, February 3, in “Precision Passing,” “Thread the Needle,” and ‘Epic Pro Bowl Dodgeball” competitions.
