Post-Belichick, Where's Patriots' Job Rank in NFL?
For some of the NFL's damned, the turnover hasn't stopped just because their season has.
The New England Patriots officially turned the page in the franchise ledgers on Thursday, ending one of the longest, most continuous, and exhilarating chapters in NFL history by parting ways with head coach Bill Belichick after 24 straight seasons of collaboration on Thursday.
Belichick's ousting is part of a flurry of moves across the amateur and professional coaching ranks, coming hours after the tenures of fellow headset legends Pete Carroll (Seattle Seahawks) and Nick Saban (University of Alabama) likewise ended. On the NFL level, "Black Monday" has been extended to a week and has eaten away at a quarter of the league's managers: as of Thursday, eight teams, including the Patriots, are searching for new head coaches. Some opportunities, however, are built better than others.
Where does the Patriots situation rank?
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8. Carolina Panthers
Carolina has two things going for it: the NFC South is weak enough that mediocrity secures a playoff spot and home game and there may be an avenue for more creative control with general manager Scott Fitterer fired alongside Frank Reich.
But Carolina just worked through a two-win slog where they didn't even have the comfort of their own draft pick to cheer them up. That selection was shipped to Chicago for the right to select new franchise quarterback Bryce Young, who hardly looked NFL-ready in 16 starts this season.
Combine that with trigger-happy management (with Reich ditched after only 11 games), Carolina's situation hardly seems stable. Every availability presents some of a fixer-upper, but the Panthers could be whimpering for a while at their current pace.
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7. Las Vegas Raiders
Frankly, the Raiders are so low because their best move would be to promote interim coach Antonio Pierce, whose nine-game stint (5-4) won over some of the franchise cornerstones like Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby.
If Pierce isn't retained, it stands to reason that some of loyalists may move on. Adams, for example, nets over $17 million in cap savings if he's traded after June 1.
Promoting Pierce would also give the Raiders more time to ponder what they should do with some of their more polarizing franchise faces: Josh Jacobs struggled in a year on the franchise tag while oft-injured Jimmy Garoppolo is a $28.5 million cap hit next season.
6. New England Patriots
The Belichick era will be long debated in New England, especially the argument over whether he or Tom Brady was more responsible for the team's unprecedented run of success.
While fully discounting Belichick's role is ridiculously foolhardy, one can argue that Brady's final Foxborough hours masked festering issues that produced visible blemishes in this woebegone season that proved that New England is far from "one move away" from happy days returning. Those woes were either addressed with the wrong personnel (i.e. making JuJu Smith-Schuster WR1), befallen by bad luck (injuries to Calvin Anderson and Riley Reiff), or ignored entirely (not drafting a blocker with the first three rounds last year).
One also can't count out the mental factor that comes with succeeding a New England legend: someone had to lineup on the Boston Bruins' blue line when Bobby Orr retired or take to the Fenway Park mound when Pedro Martinez went to Queens. Hiring within (i.e. Jerod Mayo) would likely alleviate some of that stress but it's still worth wondering what coach in his right mind would subject himself to this brand of pressure.
Speaking from a sense of foreign affairs, elite coaches stayed away from the AFC East for years to avoid dealing with Belichick and Brady twice a year. Now, the cleat's on the other foot, as prospects may be wary of the idea of seeing Josh Allen and Tua Tagovaila (not to mention a healed Aaron Rodgers) for nearly a quarter of the schedule.
Not all is cursed in New England, however: there are enough valuable cornerstones on defense, which produced a respectable year despite losing Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon. A defensive expert (again, such as Mayo) could be inspired to ride the pass rush to victory, similar to what transpired in Cleveland this season.
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5. Tennessee Titans
An NFL franchise will never flat-out announce that it's embarking on a rebuild. But firing an established, culture-creating commodity like Mike Vrabel is perhaps the closest anyone will come to such bluntness.
The best thing one can say about the Titans job is that there's a chance to be patient: Nashville blues are set to become prevalent over the next few years, especially with the AFC South run by CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans until further notice. But management will likely be content to roll with the punches with the idea of returning to respectability by the time their new stadium is ready to open in 2027. Until then, the Titans might be getting ready to tighten their belts, as there are too many holes for a robust cap picture (over $71 million to spend) to be used on a home run signing.
Franchise face Derrick Henry is all but certain to move on. His successor Tyjae Spears seems like a day two steal, but the most potent offensive veteran appears to be the aging DeAndre Hopkins. Discussing such weaponry may be null-and-void considering the franchise quarterback conundrum: flashes of brilliance emerged from rookie Will Levis though there was nothing to suggest he's a surefire hit.
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4. Washington Commanders
Not so long ago, Washington would've been dead last on this, but a long-awaited change in ownership (Daniel Snyder giving way to Josh Harris and partners) has provided at least some hope to the idea that there's a plan to make things right in Landover.
No team has more irons in the offseason fire than the Commanders: having accepted their fate around mid-autumn, Washington built an offseason budget by turning Montez Sweat and Chase Young's massive contracts into picks and cap space. As a result, Washington has nine picks to barter with come spring, including three of the first 40 and the second overall choice that will likely be used on a quarterback to replace Sam Howell. Their offseason budget is the highest in the NFL, as Over the Cap puts them atop the available cap space list at over $75.5 million.
A crowded NFC East hints at a lengthy renovation, but it's not like there's much of a new-century benchmark to live up to in the nation's capital.
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3. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle-based Frasier Crane had little interest in the Seahawks' affairs, but the title track of his eponymous sitcom, "Tossed Salads and Scrambled Eggs," featuring a bizarre combination that somehow flows smoothly with the proper musical touch, could describe the modern team perfectly.
By no means should the Seahawks' recent endeavors panned out as well as they did: the team moved on from franchise legend Russell Wilson and replaced him with metropolitan washout Geno Smith. Speaking of former New York Jets, trading for Jamal Adams hampered the team's ability to maneuver in the draft and free agency But things worked themselves to the tune of a Wilson trade that eventually yielded Devon Witherspoon. While time will tell if Smith is welcomed back for a third year under center, both the rushing (Kenneth Walker/Zach Charbonnett) and receiving (D.K. Metcalf/Jaxon Smith-Njigba) are set up handsomely.
Was that more Carroll's expertise and panache or are the current Seahawks well-constructed, overachieving, or possibly both? Time will tell, but there's a lot of foundation progress to get excited about here.
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2. Atlanta Falcons
Somehow, Atlanta perfectly prepared for the post-Matt Ryan with one exception: replacing Ryan himself.
Atlanta stocked up on high-profile young talents under general manager Terry Fontenot, as Tyler Allgeier, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, and more have all arrived at various stages of the past three drafts. Whether that's enough to save Fontenot remains to be seen, but it at least sets up a strong foundation ... one that the new coach better be willing to use considering the criticisms surrounding the ousted Arthur Smith's snap distributions.
Whoever is making the picks come draft weekend is also sitting pretty: Atlanta is picking eighth (emerging victorious in a four-way draft board tie among seven-win teams) and owns four selections among the first 79 thanks to the Calvin Ridley trade that netted Jacksonville's third-rounder. Again, residing amongst the mediocrity in the NFC South also gives any newcomer a chance to succeed and win immediately.
But whoever dons Atlanta's headset better be ready to start from scratch at quarterback: Desmond Ridder's dramatics have clearly worn thin and Taylor Heinicke probably hit his ceiling in Washington.
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1. Los Angeles Chargers
New-century Charger football has centered around the question of how this team, perpetually blessed with high-octane, name-brand talent, is unable to stand as a consistent contender.
Injuries certainly have taken their toll (only five players started all 17 games last season) but there's no reason that a team blessed with one of the league's supposed rising passing talents (Justin Herbert), yardage-eating weapons (Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler), and a fearsome pass rush (Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack) should only be winning five games. No currently coach-less roster is more battle-ready (which helps, considering Los Angeles is in the red when it comes to 2024 cap space) and that's even before the fifth overall pick in this spring's draft joins the roster.
The Chargers are also losing any semblance of a SoCal culture battle: while they've sputtered around SoFi Stadium, they've watched their Ram roommates win a Super Bowl, tear it all down, and get back to the playoffs. That sets up a modest goal for a new coach, who also has an opportunity to succeed in an AFC West where Denver and Las Vegas are preparing to go back to the drawing board and Kansas City suddenly looks a lot more beatable than it did a year ago.
With all that in mind, the Chargers job likely won't be bestowed to just anyone: it reeks of a spot given to a "professional," someone well-versed in championships affairs, someone who can teach the abstract art of winning to a historically snakebitten franchise so well-versed in being "one play away."
Know anybody?
