Polar Pats: Patriots Prep for Potentially Frigid Conditions on Saturday versus Bills

Brace yourselves, winter is coming.

While the aforementioned pop culture reference might be a bit past its prime, the wrath of ‘old man winter’ will be felt on Saturday as the New England Patriots take on the Buffalo Bills at 8:15pm ET at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York.

In addition to being a playoff matchup between two bitter division rivals, Saturday night’s Wild Card Weekend showdown may be played in some of the coldest game time temperatures in the team’s history.

Should the current forecast hold true, this game may stand beside the 2004 divisional round matchup with the Tennessee Titans for the coldest game ever played by the Patriots. It also has the potential to be just the third single-digit kickoff in team history (including 2004 against the Titans and December 1989 versus Pittsburgh.)

At present, the National Weather Service is predicting partly cloudy skies with minimal winds, along with a possible low temperature of 2 degrees at the time of Saturday night’s kickoff.

YIKES! …or should I say, ‘Brrrrrrr.’

With the frigid temperatures in Western New York are certain to have, at least, a marginal effect on game play, it will not be the first time that these two teams have met in weather conditions, which significantly factored into the action on the field. In fact, just over one month ago, the Pats and Bills took the field at Highmark Stadium amidst grueling sustained winds of 25-35 miles per hour (mph), with gusts up to 60 mph. As a result, the Patriots wisely shelved their passing game, opting instead to run the ball 46 times for 222 yards. Conversely, the Bills did not alter their gameplan to account for the elements as quarterback Josh Allen attempted 30 passes, yet completed only 15. Buffalo paid the price for doing so, dropping the Week Thirteen contest 14-10.

Weather conditions, however, were not a factor in their second meeting. In a post-Christmas Day matchup at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts, running back Damien Harris was the lone bright spot for the Pats. The Alabama product carried the ball 18 times for 103 yards and three touchdowns. However, quarterback Mac Jones finished the game completing just 14 of 32 passes for 145 yards and two interceptions. Still, the story of the day for New England would be costly penalties, and the inability of both the Patriots offense and defense to make plays when most needed. For the second straight week, the Patriots could not overcome an early, self-inflicted deficit, falling to the Bills 33-21 in Week Sixteen in Foxboro.

In their first matchup, the Patriots found success by winning their battles in the trenches. A superior game plan, combined with more-experienced coaching also played a role in New England’s victory. Two weeks later, Buffalo earned their victory by demonstrating greater talent on both sides of the ball. Ironically, Saturday’s rubber match, with a spot in the conference semifinals to be awarded to the winner, will be decided on a middle ground…at least in terms of the weather. Neither wind, nor precipitation is expected to affect the outcome. However, freezing temperatures can impact several elements, including player conditioning, field surface and ball control.

Most notably, a close eye will be kept on the quarterbacks. Though the edge of playing during sub-freezing temperatures goes to Allen, the Bills’ QB still has his struggles with frigid temperatures. The four-year veteran recently told reporters that the toughest part of playing in cold weather is managing his feet. “I've got bad circulation in my feet,” Allen said. For a quarterback who relies heavily on his movement outside the pocket to make plays, the compromising of feeling in his extremities could be problematic.

For Patriots quarterback Mac Jones, the arctic conditions will present a new challenge for the rookie; one which he must meet if the Patriots wish to remain competitive on Wild Card Weekend. The problem is that Jones has minimal experience playing in such frigid temperatures.

“I think just take each day day-by-day and try not to focus on it too much,” Jones told reporters prior to New England’s Week Twelve matchup with the Tennessee Titans. “[You] just wear whatever you're supposed to wear and take the advice from the older people that have played a lot in the cold. [I’m] just trying to figure it out. It's just another challenge, but you just have to look at it positively…as if it was raining or really windy or whatever the situation is. It's football, and you're going to have days where it's cold and days where it's. windy and days when it's raining, so you have to be ready for all situations.”

Though Week Twelve was played in cold conditions, the temperatures on Saturday will be unlike anything Jones has ever seen as a pro. His ability to make throws in such a climate will be a determining factor in the success on Saturday.

In the final analysis, Saturday night’s game will be played, regardless of the weather conditions. From a Patriots perspective, head coach Bill Belichick is confident that his team will be prepared to brave the cold, even in the most extreme circumstances.

“We’ve practiced in just about everything we could, any type of conditions we could have and played in quite a few as well,” Belichick told reporters on Wednesday. “There’s no way to turn the temperature down, up, or anything else. It is what it is out there. I think, over the course of the year, we’ve dealt with, again, almost everything. I have a lot of confidence in our players. Through the course of their careers, they’ve dealt with multiple situations of all various types, so, hopefully, we’re prepared for that.

Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels echoed Belichick’s remarks, and also added that the passing game would not be impacted by low temperatures.

“The temperature will be what it will be,” he said. “We’ve certainly played and practiced in cold weather. Maybe we haven’t practiced in that type of weather yet this year, but I’d say it’s been below 20 degrees at times. It is what it is. You’ve got to dress appropriately for it and go out there and coach and play.”

Still, the Pats toughest opponent on Saturday will not be the weather conditions. It will be the defending AFC East Champions, a team which is strong in all three phases of the game. No one knows this as well as Belichick, himself.

“I’m more worried about the Bills than the weather.I think the Bills are what we have to focus on and that’s who we have to beat. The weather is the weather.”

In the words of Herodotus, Belichick and the Patriots will need to avoid being ‘stayed neither by snow nor rain nor heat nor darkness from accomplishing their appointed course’ on Saturday night. Otherwise, the offseason may be arriving sooner than expected.