Where the New England Patriots Stand in early NFL Power Rankings and Super Bowl Odds

Though we are still months away from the first training camp practice snap being taken across the NFL landscape, the experts and oddsmakers are already beginning to prognosticate the possibilities for the upcoming season.

For the New England Patriots, the outlook [by consensus] is…not great, but not terrible.

In contrast to New England’s uncharacteristically aggressive approach in 2021, the free agency frenzy has largely avoided the front offices of One Patriot Place, Foxboro, Massachusetts. With moderate cap flexibility [at best], the Pats have taken a more conservative approach to their offseason, thus far. The team has retained the services of key veterans such as safety Devin McCourty, special teams captain Matthew Slater, kicker Nick Folk, running back James White and offensive lineman Trent Brown.

From outside the organization, the Pats recently raised some eyebrows (in a good way) by signing hybrid defender Jabrill Peppers to a one year, team-friendly deal. They have also made a handful of low-risk, potentially high-reward additions, including receiver/running back Ty Montgomery, cornerback Terrance Mitchell and linebacker Mack Wilson, via trade with the Cleveland Browns. Lastly, the Patriots have welcomed back Super Bowl XLIX hero Malcolm Butler to the cornerback corps on a two-year deal for the upcoming season.

Still, with teams such as the Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins making offseason headlines with some high-profile acquisitions, the Pats seem to be stuck in the middle when it comes to roster renovations. In addition, the Patriots coaching staff has been significantly poached of talents such as Josh McDaniels, Bo Hardegree, Carmen Bricillo, Mick Lombardi, as well as ex-Director of Player Personnel Dave Ziegler. When adding all these ingredients into the mix, it apparently makes for a bland cocktail of hope for the Pats’ 2022 prognosis.

Using four prominent national outlets for our power rankings roundup — Sports Illustrated, NFL.com, ESPN and USA Today — the Patriots ranged from 10th to 15th in the league.

Here's a roundup of the 2022 preliminary power rankings (including the comments from each outlet), along with SI Fan Nation’s analysis.

Sports Illustrated

Rank #13

“Bill Belichick’s coaching staff was picked apart once again, this time leaving him without an offensive or defensive coordinator. The egalitarian approach is fascinating and could guard against teams gathering tendencies on play-callers if they don’t know exactly who is dialed into the headset. Matt Patricia and Joe Judge are both in the mix with Josh McDaniels now in Las Vegas. On the field, the Patriots followed up an explosive 2021 free agency with a far more timid one this time around, adding Ty Montgomery into the fold to help Mac Jones on checkdown throws out of the backfield. With another year in the system, Jones and the Patriots should be increasingly efficient and competitive after starting the long, post–Tom Brady turnaround process a year ago.” -Connor Orr

ESPN

Rank #15

“Nothing should be more important than protecting Mac Jones, and in turn opening holes for running backs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. Now there's a major void at left guard after Ted Karras signed with the Bengals in free agency. In 2016, the Patriots drafted Joe Thuney in the third round and he was a plug-and-play starter from day one. Finding this year's version of Thuney would be ideal in a draft that appears deep with interior linemen.” -Commentary by Mike Reiss

*ESPN also suggested the Patriots next offseason move would be adding a starting left guard.

NFL.com

Rank: #13

“While the Bills were busy inking Von Miller to a megadeal, the Pats mostly stood, well, pat in the first week of free agency. Bill Belichick seemingly had no interest in keeping J.C. Jackson in the building (the Pro Bowl cornerback signed with the Chargers), and the move to trade sturdy right guard Shaq Mason for a fifth-round draft pick served as a head-scratcher for many Patriots fans still stinging from an embarrassing playoff blowout loss in Buffalo. The team did keep some continuity on its offensive line with the re-signing of Trent Brown on Monday. Looking ahead to the draft: Targeting an impact wide receiver makes a lot of sense.” -Dan Hanzus

USA Today

Rank #10

“They've been as quiet in free agency this year as they were audacious in 2021. But oh to be a fly on the wall in the offensive meeting room as Matt Patricia and Joe Judge – neither with much coaching experience on that side of the ball – try to fill McDaniels' void.” -Nate Davis

SI Fan Nation’s Analysis:

Rank #12

“While the aforementioned moves may not provide the ‘splash’ for which the Patriots’ fan base has been clamoring, it is important to remember that the roster building period for the upcoming season is not yet officially two weeks old. There is still plenty of time for the Patriots to improvise their squad at key positions of need. The additions of Mack and Peppers add some much-needed speed and versatility to the second and third levels of the Pats defense. The re-signings of McCourty, Slater and White will be key to maintaining some continuity, while Malcolm Butler’s return has the potential to be a high-reward signing. In the final analysis, it is a bit unfair to judge the Patriots offseason until the 2022 Draft is in the books. With this draft class being strong in the areas in which the Patriots are seeking help, their performance in late-April will be much better criteria on which the team should be evaluated.” -Mike D’Abate

The Opinion of the Oddsmakers:

While the Patriots were largely ‘middle-of-the-pack’ in the power rankings, they fell a bit below the equator when it comes to Super Bowl odds. Per BetOnline.ag**, the Patriots currently have rank 18th in the odds to win Super LVII at +3500. Their division rival Buffalo Bills top the list at +650, followed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+825), Kansas City Chiefs (+975), Green Bay Packers (+1000) and the defending Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams (+1200) rounding out the top five.

For the Conference title, the Pats rank 12th in the overall race for the AFC. BetOnline has New England at +2000 to be crowned kings of the AFC. As was the case with Super Bowl odds, the Bills sit atop the AFC list at +425. The Chiefs (+590), Los Angeles Chargers (+775), Denver Broncos (+975), Cincinnati Bengals (+1100), Cleveland Browns (+1100), Baltimore Ravens (+1200), Las Vegas Raiders (+1200), Miami Dolphins (+1400), Tennessee Titans (+1600) and Indianapolis Colts (+1600) finished ahead of New England in the current sport book.

With the reigning AFC East champions welcoming premium pass-rusher Von Miller to Western New York, and the Dolphins adding offensive lineman Terron Armstead and wideout Tyreek Hill, the Pats have slipped to third in the division at +425. Buffalo is the favorite at -190, while Miami has overtaken the Pats for second place, with their odds set at +350. The New York Jets remain last in the odds for Division title contention at +2500.

**Odds based on BetOnline.ag; Mar 31 Thu 2022