Patriots Live on 'Edge' in Mel Kiper's Final NFL Mock Draft; Who's the Pick?

As the New England Patriots seek to restart their own championship affairs, Mel Kiper Jr. believes that they'll turn to a reigning two-time winner of a prestigious football title.

In his final mock draft before the 2023 selections kick off on Thursday night (7 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN/NFL Network), the longtime ESPN draft analyst deals Georgia edge rusher Nolan Smith to the Patriots in the 14th slot. If the Patriots were to go with Smith, it'd be the second time over the last six years that they'd use their opening pick on a defender, joining Kyle Dugger from 2020, and their first defensive first-round choice since Malcolm Brown in 2015.

Smith would join a formidable New England edge headlined by the valuable efforts of Matthew Judon. They tied third with the Dallas Cowboys with 54 sacks and led the league with 73 hurries (at a rate of 10.8 percent of defensive snaps). Nonetheless, Kiper believes it can be better, appreciating the fit between Smith and a Patriots group that now has to deal with the divisional aerial antics of Aaron Rodgers in New York in addition to the familiar ways of Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa.

"Smith strikes me as exactly the type of edge defender the Patriots would love to have," Kiper says. "He could rack up 10 sacks per season for Bill Belichick & Co. I love this fit."

Entering college as a defensive end (earning the Anthony Muñoz Award for the best high school lineman in the country), Smith primarily worked as an outside linebacker and played a role in two national title runs. He notably had seven tackles, two for a loss, in the 2021-22 national title victory over Alabama and earned his first interception in the annual rivalry get-together with Florida earlier that season.

Though a pectoral injury cut his senior season short, Smith has been a touted defensive prospect. NFL.com's Lance Zierlein compared him to current Indianapolis Colt Samson Ebukam.

"Smith is hard to move off of his spot due to his technique and leverage, and he can be disruptive when firing into gaps," Zierlein writes. "He can get off the mark as a rusher, but lacks the counters and contact balance to consistently assault the pocket at a high rate.

"Smith falls below the size standards some team might have for a 3-4 outside linebacker, but he plays team-first defense with quality technique that should help him translate to the pros."

The Patriots' hypothetical decision to go offense is indirectly brought about by the New York Jets' aforementioned trade for Rodgers. Kiper argues that Tennessee offensive lineman Darnell Wright would be a decent fit for the Patriots but the fact the Green Bay Packers leaped ahead of them in the Rodgers deal put them in a better position to land his blocking services.

Geoff Magliocchetti is on Twitter @GeoffJMags

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