Saints Offense Must Continue Momentum Against Rams in Huge Showdown
Week 16 of the NFL season kicks off with the New Orleans Saints traveling to play the Los Angeles Rams. Both teams are 7-7 and in the thick of the playoff chase. The Saints are looking for their third straight win to stay at least tied on top of the NFC South. The Rams have won four of five and a win here would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Saints in the wild-card chase.
To put it politely, New Orleans has been extremely erratic on offense this season. They've pulled it together slightly over the second half of the year and have scored 24 points or more in six of their last eight outings. Injuries have taken a toll on the unit recently. Despite that, they played perhaps their most efficient game of the year with a shorthanded squad last week against the Giants.
The Rams have been known for offensive prowess under head coach Sean McVay. However, their defense has been just as responsible for their recent winning streak. Los Angeles has allowed 20 points or fewer in five of their last six outings while showing the ability to cause havoc at the line of scrimmage.
Can a New Orleans offense that's had issues with injuries, play-calling, execution, and red zone efficiency take advantage of the vulnerabilities in the Los Angeles defense? Here's how the two units match up in a huge showdown for both teams.
Rams Defensive Statistics
Nov 20, 2022; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) is tackled by Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald (99) and linebacker Ernest Jones (53). Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
Total Defense
• 22.1 points per game (19th)
• 337 yards/game (18th)
• 12 turnovers forced (30th)
Passing
• 226.1 yards/game (21st)
• 59.8% completion percentage
• 30 sacks
Rushing
• 110.8 yards/game (14th)
• 4.2 per carry (15th)
Los Angeles DT Aaron Donald is still one of the NFL's most feared defenders. Offenses design their game plans around the hope of being able to minimize the damage he creates. Donald has six sacks, 21 QB hits, 28 pressures, and 13 tackles for loss. No matter where he lines up along the line, he requires the attention of multiple offensive linemen.
Rookie DT Kobie Turner has developed into a disruptive interior complement to Donald. Turner has 5.5 sacks and 11 QB hits with five stops for loss on the year. Quick off the snap, he's often able to slice between blockers into opposing backfields, but can get pushed off the ball at times when bigger blockers can engage him. Jonah Williams and Bobby Brown round out a thin but effective rotation up front.
Nov. 26, 2023; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) is sacked by Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald (99). © Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK
Michael Hoecht (4.5 sacks) and rookie Byron Young (6 sacks) have turned out to be a couple of young edge rushing complements to Donald. The two have also combined for 23 QB hits and 11 tackles for loss. Inside LB Ernest Jones (3.5 sacks) has also been very effective on inside blitzes.
Jones leads the Rams with 125 tackles, including 11 for loss. He's a good athlete with even better instincts that put him constantly in the middle of the action. Jones is complemented by LB Christian Rozeboom in the middle. Rozeboom has a career-best 65 tackles, but is often targeted by opponents with success when he drops into open field.
Los Angeles linebackers are an aggressive group most effective when attacking downhill. They swarm to the ball well, but have proven to be vulnerable in open space. The Rams have allowed only one 100-yard rusher, but coverage on short and intermediate routes has been an issue.
Nov 19, 2023; Los Angeles Rams linebacker Ernest Jones (53) and safety Quentin Lake (37) tackle Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet (26). Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
Pass coverage in general has been a weakness for the Rams. They've allowed only three quarterbacks over 270 yards this season, all over 300, but have surrendered six 100-yard receiving games with six more outings over 70 yards.
Veteran CB Ahkello Witherspoon has been a stabilizing influence for a young L.A. secondary. Witherspoon has three of the team's eight interceptions, along with 13 passes broken up and 41.6% completion percentage allowed. Second-year corners Cobie Durant and Derion Kendrick have shown potential with 13 passes broken up, but have allowed a combined 61% completion percentage and four touchdowns when targeted.
Safety may be a bigger issue for the Rams. Veteran John Johnson is a heavy hitter and has good instincts, but has very limited range and coverage skills. Quentin Lake must show improved awareness. Jordan Fuller is emerging as the playmaker out of this group. Also able to cover the slot, Fuller is second on the team in tackles and has an interception on top of six passes broken up and three forced fumbles.
Saints Offensive Statistics
Oct 29, 2023; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws a long pass against the Indianapolis Colts. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY
Total Offense
• 22.1 points per game (12th)
• 334.5 yards/game (14th)
• 17 turnovers (12th)
• 3rd Down Efficiency = 17th
• Red Zone Efficiency = 21st
Passing
• 231.3 yards/game (14th)
• 29 sacks
Rushing
• 103.2 yards/game (19th)
• 3.7 per carry (29th)
Derek Carr has completed 67.4% of his throws with 16 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Carr has five 300-yard games and is capable of hitting any throw, but has often been guilty of indecisiveness and poor accuracy this season. However, he's been extremely efficient in two of his last three outings, showing a much better grasp of the offense.
Carr gets his top target back this week. Second-year WR Chris Olave is slated to return after missing last Sunday with an ankle injury. Olave has 72 receptions on 116 targets for 918 yards and four touchdowns. He has four 100-yard games and three more of at least 85 yards.
Nov 26, 2023; New Orleans Saints receiver Chris Olave (12) catches a pass over Atlanta Falcons cornerback Jeff Okudah (1). Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Speedster Rashid Shaheed also returned last week after missing two games. Shaheed has 36 catches for 570 yards and three scores with another on a punt return. His blazing speed stretches defenses, but he's also an underrated route runner with tremendous skills after the catch.
With Michael Thomas still on injured reserve, Olave and Shaheed will see most of the targets in the receiving corps. Lynn Bowden Jr. and rookie A.T. Perry have made a few plays, but must show more consistency to earn Carr's trust.
The tight ends have been used more in the offense recently. Juwan Johnson has had a rough year with drops, but has 22 catches for 190 yards with two touchdowns and can test defenses with his athleticism. Foster Moreau (18-164 yards) has been a reliable target in short and intermediate areas.
Jimmy Graham has been vastly underutilized, but has four touchdowns on his six catches. Graham has shown that he can still dominate defensive backs with his physicality, especially near the goal line.
Nov 20, 2022; New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson (83) makes a reception against the Los Angeles Rams. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY
The ultimate wild-card, Taysom Hill, should see a lot more activity after being used mostly as a decoy in returning from a foot injury last week. Hill is the team's most reliable power runner and has 347 yards with four scores on the ground. He's also caught 27 passes for 233 yards and a touchdown and completed five passes for 72 yards and another score.
The running game has been inconsistent, at best, all season. However, the focal point of the entire attack remains RB Alvin Kamara. He's the team's leading rusher with 630 yards and five touchdowns, but has averaged just 3.9 per carry and has only one game with more than 80 yards on the ground. Jamaal Williams has been more effective in recent weeks between the tackles. This would allow the Saints to use Kamara's versatility more if it can continue.
Kamara has 68 receptions for 446 yards and a score. He leads all NFL backs in targets and catches despite missing the first three games of the year. Kamara's elite balance, vision, and outstanding receiving skills are a huge challenge for even the most athletic defenses.
Nov 20, 2022; New Orleans Saints tight end Taysom Hill (7) runs the ball against the Los Angeles Rams. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
The Saints have been much better in pass protection over the last month after a putrid start to the year. However, they still struggle with inside twists and stunts. Guards Cesar Ruiz, James Hurst, and C Erik McCoy must also get a more consistent push for their running backs.
New Orleans will be without star RT Ryan Ramczyk (knee) for the second straight game. Landon Young did an outstanding job as his replacement last week and will be under pressure to duplicate that performance. Veteran Andrus Peat has been better than expected at left tackle since replacing a benched Trevor Penning. Peat can struggle with athletic edge rushers, but is a powerful blocker who can stifle defenders.
The Saints have used two tight ends on several alignments in recent weeks. Expect them to continue doing so this week to leave an extra blocker to assist Young or Peat in pass protection while allowing the other to run routes on passing plays.
What to Watch
Nov 20, 2022; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs against the Los Angeles Rams. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
Eliminating Aaron Donald is next to impossible, but the Saints must find a way to minimize his impact. New Orleans may try to bait Donald inside on traps and misdirection plays with their running plays to Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill. It's crucial that they develop a rushing attack to set up play-action and avoid being one-dimensional.
Getting Kamara in open space against the L.A. linebackers is a must. Not just as a check-down, but also on option routes out of the backfield and from the slot. This will not only test the limited range of the Rams defenders, but also spread them out from sideline-to-sideline.
Carr must get rid of the ball quickly and decisively. Especially with Ramczyk out, New Orleans pass protection will be severely tested against Donald and their aggressive front seven. Saints tight ends could play a pivotal role in this week's game plan. They'll be able to challenge the Rams safeties and linebackers while giving Carr an immediate outlet if they can get quick separation.
Olave back in the lineup should be huge. The Rams don't have anyone that can match up with both he and Shaheed. Either, or even both, could have big days against a vulnerable Los Angeles secondary. However, both wideouts need to be used on a full route tree, rather than just on deep throws (Shaheed) or long-developing patterns.
