Saints Passing Game Should Take Center Stage Against Falcons
New Orleans Saints playoff hopes depend on beating the Atlanta Falcons at home this afternoon. The Saints (8-8) will win the NFC South if they beat the Falcons (7-9) and Tampa Bay loses at Carolina. They could also get in as a wild-card if the Buccaneers win by beating Atlanta and getting loses by Green Bay at Chicago AND Seattle at Arizona.
A massively underachieving unit to start the year, the New Orleans offense has had a far more effective offense over the second half of the campaign. The Saints average 22.1 points and 333.3 yards of total offense per game, ranking 14th in the league. Their greatest improvements have been in the red zone, where they've at least risen to the middle of the pack.
Atlanta defeated the Saints, 24-15, back in Week 12 and now stand in the way of a postseason chance. Under former New Orleans coordinator Ryan Nielsen, the Falcons rank 11th in total defense with 316 yards allowed and ninth in points surrendered at 20.3. They are only 28th in turnovers forced (16), but their defense ranks third on both third downs and in the red zone.
New Orleans looks likely to be without dynamic RB Alvin Kamara, who is dealing with a high ankle sprain. Even if Kamara can play, he'll probably be extremely limited. This will put more pressure on the Saints passing attack to bring home a win against their most bitter rival.
Atlanta Pass Defense
Atlanta Falcons safety Jessie Bates III (3) runs for a touchdown after intercepting a pass against the New Orleans Saints. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY
The Falcons rank eighth against the pass, giving up 200 yards per contest. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 61% of their throws against them, with the Falcons intercepting only eight passes. Atlanta has recorded 39 sacks, but have a more impressive 94 QB hits.
Most of Atlanta's pressure comes off the edge. Arnold Ebiketie leads them with six sacks and has 16 pressures. Bud Dupree has 21 pressures and 5.5 sacks. Lorenzo Carter has three sacks with 11 pressures. Sixteen-year veteran Calais Campbell has 5.5 sacks and 15 QB hits on 21 pressures.
Not to be outdone, former Saint DT David Onyemata has four sacks, 21 pressures, and a team-high 16 QB hits from the inside. Another former Saint, LB Kaden Elliss, has added four sacks to go along with nine pressures. Rookie DE Zach Harrison has contributed three sacks with his nine pressures.
Elliss is a smart player, but both he and fellow inside LB Nate Landman can be a liability in open space in man coverage. It's allowed opposing backs and tight ends to get easy catches. Safety Richie Grant, who has an interception and six passes broken up, will also factor in covering tight ends but isn't strong in man coverage.
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) is tackled by Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell (24) and safety Richie Grant (27). Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY
Safety Jessie Bates is one of the finest in the game. Bates has six of Atlanta's eight interceptions, has a team-high 11 passes broken up, leads the team in tackles, and has forced three fumbles. He has elite awareness and range in off-ball duties but the fluid coverage skills to step into the slot.
Fourth-year CB A.J. Terrell is the Falcons' best cover man. A physical corner, Terrell doesn't have an interception but has broken up 10 passes and gives up less than 54% completion rate when targeted. Promising rookie CB Clark Phillips has earned more playing time as the season has progressed and allows just 41.4% completion percentage in man coverage.
Second-year CB Dee Alford gives up a 63% completion rate, but has broken up six passes and is dependable either outside or in the slot. The third overall choice in the 2020 draft, Jeff Okudah was a colossal bust with the Detroit Lions. He's been serviceable in his first year with the Falcons, but is still the weak link of the cornerback unit.
New Orleans Passing Attack
Dec 18, 2022; New Orleans Saints receiver Rashid Shaheed (89) catches a long touchdown pass behind Atlanta Falcons safety Richie Grant (27). Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY
Derek Carr has completed 67.9% of his throws with 21 touchdowns and 8 interceptions for a Saints passing game that ranks 12th in the league with 234 yards per game. Carr has six 300-yard outings this season, but early on had a lot of stretches of inaccuracy and indecisiveness. He's recently shown a much greater grasp of the offense and is spreading the ball around extremely well.
With WR Michael Thomas (knee) about to miss his seventh straight game, second-year wideouts Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed have been Carr's top targets. Shaheed is the best deep threat and has 43 catches for 654 yards and four touchdowns. However, Carr and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael don't use Shaheed enough on underneath routes to let him use his elite open field elusiveness.
Olave leads the team by a wide margin in receptions (84), yards (1,067), and targets (135) while catching four touchdowns. A terrific route runner with good speed, Olave has five 100-yard games and three more with at least 85 yards. His elite upside has been somewhat delayed by drops or disappearances in crucial moments.
New Orleans Saints receiver Chris Olave (12) catches a pass over Atlanta Falcons cornerback Jeff Okudah (1). Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY
Carr has shown steadily growing confidence in rookie sixth-round WR A.T. Perry. A big-bodied target with good athleticism, Perry has nine catches for 193 yards and two scores in eight games. Wideout Lynn Bowden has good versatility and is very effective in the open field after short receptions. Keith Kirkwood and Marquez Callaway get little separation, but can be effective in traffic or the red zone on occasion.
New Orleans will likely be without versatile star RB Alvin Kamara. Even if Kamara is able to play, expect him to be a limited player. That affects the passing game almost as badly as the running attack. Kamara has 466 receiving yards and is second I'm targets (86) and catches (75) on the team.
Jamaal Williams will probably shoulder much of the rushing load, but is little more than an occasional target on screens or check-downs in the passing game. If rookie sixth-round RB Kendre Miller (ankle/illness) can go, he could provide an underrated X-Factor. Miller has missed the last seven contests and has only 83 yards rushing. However, he's shown explosive traits as a receiver out of the backfield with nine receptions for 111 yards.
Taysom Hill (7) of the New Orleans Saints catches a pass over Atlanta Falcons cornerback Dee Alford (20). Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
A versatile player who should play a big role is Taysom Hill. Best known as a power runner, Hill has also scored twice on 29 receptions for 263 yards, both career-bests. He's also a passing threat when he lines up behind center, forcing defenses to account for him in every capacity.
The Saints did a fantastic job at attacking the middle of the field with their tight ends against Tampa Bay. It's not an aspect of their offense they've used often enough this season. A perfect example of this is 37-year-old TE Jimmy Graham, who has four touchdowns on only six receptions despite his big frame, sure hands, and ability to shield defenders from contested throws.
Juwan Johnson had the best game of his four-year career against Tampa Bay, pulling in eight passes for 90 yards. Johnson has had a rough year with nagging injuries and drops, but has 34 receptions for 328 yards and four touchdowns. As a converted wideout, his route tree and athleticism is usually a mismatch for most linebackers and several safeties. Foster Moreau (20 catches, 190 yards) is a more traditional in-line tight end but a viable short and intermediate target.
New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson (83) breaks the tackle attempts of Atlanta Falcons safeties Richie Grant (27) and Erik Harris (23). Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
The Saints will be starting their third right tackle with veteran Cameron Erving replacing Landon Young (knee), who replaced Ryan Ramczyk (knee). Andrus Peat is not a long-term answer at left tackle, but has brought some stability to the position since replacing a benched Trevor Penning.
While the tackles will be tested against Atlanta's speedy edge rush, a big issue all season for the Saints have been interior pass protection. Guards Cesar Ruiz, James Hurst, and C Erik McCoy all have proven ability. However, each have been a human turnstile for pass rushers individually and collectively have often been helpless against interior twists and stunts.
What to Watch
New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws a pass against the Atlanta Falcons. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
When these teams met back in Week 12, the Saints rolled up nearly 450 yards of total offense. They advanced well into Atlanta territory on eight of their nine drives. However, they managed just five field goals, one missed field goal, and turned the ball over twice inside the Atlanta 10-yard line. One of those turnovers resulted in a 92-yard interception return for a touchdown by Bates in the 24-15 loss.
Carr threw for 304 yards in that Week 12 game at Atlanta. Olave pulled in seven of his throws for 114 yards, but eight different players caught passes that day. Shaheed should also be a huge factor, but Johnson and Graham could take advantage of mismatches in the Falcons secondary.
Likely to be without or dealing with a very limited Kamara, the Saints must still find a way to establish some balance with the run. New Orleans also needs to give Carr stout protection against a Falcons defense that will aggressively test them.
Simply put, this is the exact reason why the Saints pursued Derek Carr so heavily last offseason. Carr has played well over the second half of the season. His ability to deliver in the biggest moment of the year may be the determining factor in whether New Orleans gets the win then scoreboard watches to see if their season continues.
