Saints Battered Passing Game Must Find Plays Against Panthers Defense
The New Orleans Saints limp into Week 14 against the Carolina Panthers with a 5-7 record and dragging a three-game losing streak. Beyond the metaphorical limping is the fact that the Saints are also a battered squad.
Defenders Marshon Lattimore, Marcus Maye, and Malcolm Roach are on injured reserve while Cam Jordan and Pete Werner are dealing with injuries that could sideline them. On offense, WRs Michael Thomas (IR/knee) and Rashid Shaheed (thigh) are unavailable, while QB Derek Carr is a big question with rib injuries and his second concussion in less than three weeks.
New Orleans owns an 11th-ranked offense that averages 348.3 yards per contest. However, ranking 26th in the red zone, poor play-calling, and inconsistent execution has limited them to only 21.4 points per outing, ranking just 19th.
The Saints will host a 1-11 Carolina Panthers squad that ranks seventh in total defense, but are 30th against opponents in the red zone. Carolina surrenders only 306 yards per game, but rank 31st in points allowed at 26.1 per contest.
No matter the QB situation, the Saints must be able to establish a rushing attack against a Carolina squad vulnerable in that area. Despite their beat up receiving corps, they must also be able to make plays through the area against a Panthers unit much more formidable in that category.
Carolina Pass Defense
New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) is pressured by Carolina Panthers linebacker Brian Burns (0). Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY
The Panthers rank fourth against the pass, surrendering only 181 yards per game. To be fair, Carolina has faced the second fewest pass attempts in the NFL. They've still held seven opponents to under 200 yards through the air and have allowed only one quarterback to throw for as many as 250 yards.
Carolina has only 19 sacks, third fewest total in the league. Despite this, edge rusher Brian Burns is one of the NFL's most respected pass rushers. Burns has a team-high six sacks this season to go along with 15 QB hits. Coming off a career-best 12.5 sacks last season, Burns has an impressive combination of power and agility to create chaos.
Complementing Burns along the edge is the speedy Yetur Gross-Matos, who has 2.5 sacks and just five QB hits. Gross-Matos has had disappointing production, but has the athleticism for game-changing plays. Amare Barno and Marquis Haynes are two excellent athletes that provide depth along the edge.
Former seventh overall draft choice (2020) Derrick Brown has never made a big difference as a pass rusher. However, he has 11 QB hits despite just one sack and has the pure power to collapse a pocket. Linemates DeShawn Williams, Nick Thurman, Bravvion Roy, and former Saint Shy Tuttle have done little more than tie up blockers inside.
The ability of the interior linemen to tie up blockers has freed up inside LBs Frankie Luvu and Kamu Grugier-Hill to be very effective on inside blitzes. Luvu is an outstanding all-around defender. He has 3.5 sacks, but has also broken up five passes in coverage and has eight tackles for loss. Grugier-Hill is a similar type of player, while former Falcon Deion Jones is a terrific athlete in open space.
New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) is sacked by Carolina Panthers linebacker Frankie Luvu (49). Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY
Injuries at cornerback have helped opposing quarterbacks complete 64% of their throws against Carolina coverage. The Panthers have allowed six pass catchers to have at least 70 yards, with three 100-yard outings. They also have just six interceptions, among the fewest in the league.
Versatile S/CB Jeremy Chinn has missed most of the last seven games with his own injuries and is a question for this week. Outside of him, the Panthers have gotten top-tier CBs Donte Jackson and Jaycee Horn back in the lineup. Horn, who's been back for just two games, is a potential lock-down corner that's struggled with injuries throughout his three-year career.
Jackson is an underrated corner who's had his ups and downs this year. He's allowed over 65% completion rate when targeted in 2023, but had 14 career interceptions coming into the season. Former Jacksonville first-round choice C.J. Henderson has been a huge disappointment and has allowed over 72% completion rate against him this season. However, former Rams CB Troy Hill was a nice offseason addition to the secondary. Hill has allowed only 58% completion percentage when targeted and has an interception to go along with five passes broken up.
Even if Chinn is sidelined, the Panthers have a quality pair of safeties in Xavier Woods and former Saint Vonn Bell. Woods is a prototype centerfielder, while Bell is a playmaker in deep support and a quality slot coverage option. The addition of Chinn would give Carolina a playmaker that can line up in several positions.
New Orleans Passing Game
New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) passes the ball as Carolina Panthers linebacker Justin Houston (50) pursues. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
The Saints average over 243 yards per contest with their passing attack, ranking 10th in the league. Derek Carr has five 300-yard outings. On paper, that's an impressive statistic. The reality is that Carr has had issues with indecisiveness, accuracy, and flat-out missing open receivers.
If Carr can't go because of concussion issues, the team will turn to Jameis Winston. Capable of big plays, for either team, Winston can put up huge numbers but can also make crippling mistakes. Carr has been a limited participant in practice on Wednesday and Thursday and will get the start if he continues to pass concussion protocols.
No matter who starts at QB, Taysom Hill should see a specific package of snaps behind center. Hill is obviously a force as a runner, but can also beat defenses with his arm on occasion. He's completed five of eight throws for 72 yards and a score. Hill has also rounded into a bona-fide threat as a pass catcher, pulling in 26 of 33 targets for 229 yards and another touchdown.
Second-year WR Chris Olave will continue to be the focus of the passing attack, but especially so with a depleted receiving corps. Olave has 68 receptions for 890 yards and three scores. He has four 100-yard games and three more with at least 85, possessing both deep speed and route precision.
Hill (foot/left hand) missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday while Olave missed Thursday's session with an illness. Both are expected to play, but their statuses are worth watching closely for an offense already shorthanded in targets.
New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) catches a pass against the Carolina Panthers. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
With Thomas on injured reserve and Shaheed unlikely to play, someone else needs to step up to alleviate extra coverage on Olave. Rookie sixth-round choice A.T. Perry would be the likely candidate among the wideouts. Perry has flashed ability but has just four catches for 75 yards in only five games of experience.
Lynn Bowden Jr., Keith Kirkwood, and Marquez Callaway will round out the receiving corps. Bowden, who will also take over Shaheed's punt return duties, has valuable versatility. Kirkwood and Callaway have multiple years of experience in the system, but neither have ever shown the ability to get consistent separation.
Expect RB Alvin Kamara to be heavily involved as a receiver. Kamara has 60 receptions for 413 yards in nine games, tops among all running backs. More than just a check-down target, Kamara also creates serious mismatches when he lines up out wide or from the slot.
Fourth-year TE Juwan Johnson needs to step up for the offense. Johnson has the ability to create matchup advantages with his athleticism and route tree. However, he has only 18 receptions for 142 yards in eight games. He also has five crucial drops in the last two games alone.
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) in the open field against Carolina Panthers cornerback Myles Hartsfield (38) and safety Xavier Woods (25). Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY
Foster Moreau is a more traditional in-line tight end, but can still be an effective target on short and intermediate routes. Moreau has 13 catches for 143 yards with a score and had a couple key receptions last week. Expect veteran TE Jimmy Graham to also be activated for the second straight game. Graham has just two receptions this season, both for touchdowns, and presents a big target with excellent hands in the red zone.
Pass protection has slightly improved from an offensive line that was a turnstile early in the year. New Orleans quarterbacks have been sacked 27 times this season, but just seven in the last six games with a few of those a result of Carr holding the ball too long.
Tackles Ryan Ramczyk and Andrus Peat have held up against edge rushers very well. Interior protection from C Erik McCoy and guards Cesar Ruiz and James Hurst are still prone to breakdowns, especially against inside stunts and twists.
What to Watch
New Orleans Saints receiver Chris Olave (12) crosses the goal line after a big play against Carolina but was ruled to have stepped out of bounds earlier on the play. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 18, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) crosses the goal line but was ruled to have stepped out of bounds earlier on the play in the fourth quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
When these teams met in Week 2, a 20-17 New Orleans victory, the Panthers recorded four sacks and seven QB hits while intercepting Carr once. Peat and Ramczyk must contain Burns and Gross-Matos on the edge, but the Saints must also handle inside blitzes from Luvu and Grugier-Hill.
Olave has come up big against Carolina, catching 20 passes for 293 yards in three meetings between the teams. He and Kamara will be counted on heavily. The two have combined for 180 targets. With Thomas and likely Shaheed out, Hill (33 targets) and Johnson (32) have 65 combined targets while no one else has even 15.
New Orleans will certainly look to establish their rushing attack, but the team has moved the ball more effectively between the 20s through the air most of the year. To do so successfully again, their pass protection must be stout, they'll need to rely on stars Olave and Kamara, with complementary players stepping up to make some sort of contribution.
