Saints Run Defense vs. Buccaneers Rushing Attack
Last Thursday's embarrassment to the Los Angeles Rams has left the New Orleans Saints on the brink of playoff elimination. Wild-card possibilities are all but gone. Therefore, the 7-8 Saints need to win their final two games and the 8-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers must lose their remaining two for the Saints to take the NFC South title.
New Orleans can take care of step one in both scenarios when they travel to face the Buccaneers this Sunday. For the Saints to stay alive, they'll need to return to form on defense after an abysmal showing against the Rams. They come into Week 17 ranked 14th in total defense, allowing 321.6 yards and 19.8 points per game. However, they've also been particularly putrid against the run over the last half of the season.
The Saints take on a Buccaneers squad that manhandled them in all phases during a 26-9 win at New Orleans back in Week 4. Tampa Bay ranks 23rd in total offense, averaging 21.7 points and 316.3 yards per outing. The Buccaneers have had to rely on their passing game most of the year thanks to one of the worst rushing attacks in the league. However, it's a running game that's come to life during their current four-game winning streak.
Tampa Bay Running Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White (1) breaks away from a tackle attempt by New Orleans Saints linebacker Pete Werner (20). Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY
The Buccaneers average only 89.3 yards per contest on the ground, which ranks 30th in the NFL. Their 3.4 per carry is the worst in the league and they've been held to under 100 yards in 10 of 15 games.
Second-year RB Rachaad White has assumed the lead back role for the Buccaneers. He leads the team with 873 yards on the ground and has six of their eight rushing scores. White is averaging just 3.6 per carry, but is an elusive back with good vision and burst. He's been on a roll recently, with two 100-yard outings and two more with over 80 yards in the last five games.
Three-year veteran Chase Edmonds is White's primary backup. Edmonds has just 42 carries for 133 yards and no touchdowns. Undrafted rookie power back Sean Tucker (15-23) is a power back who rounds out the depth chart. Return specialist Deven Thompkins can also be a valuable weapon on jet sweeps and reverses.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White (1) runs the ball against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports
Baker Mayfield is not known as a running quarterback. However, Mayfield is nimble enough to scramble for yardage when a passing play breaks down. He has 157 yards and a score with his legs this season, including a crucial 31 yards on the ground against the Saints in Week 4.
Tampa Bay's offensive line is built more for pass protection than rushing yardage. However, LT Tristan Wirfs is one of the best overall tackles in the game. Second-year RT Luke Goedeke has developed into a solid player on the other side.
Rookie RG Cody Mauch is a mauler, while C Robert Hainsey and LG Aaron Stinnie are solid technicians in the middle. Backup TE Ko Kieft is basically an extension of the offensive line, whether lining up as a fullback or outside the tackles.
New Orleans Run Defense
Dec 19, 2021; New Orleans Saints linebacker Demario Davis (56) and defensive end Carl Granderson (96) tackle Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones (27). Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
The Saints have been almost embarrassing against the run the last half of this season. They've given up 127 yards per game on the ground and 4.5 per carry to rank 25th in both categories. Opponents have averaged 145 yards rushing against the Saints over the last 10 contests, most in the NFL over that span.
Defensive tackle has performed better than last year, but still needs better production. Rookie first-round choice Bryan Bresee has the look of a potential star, but can get maneuvered out of position by savvy run blockers. Nathan Shepherd has been the position's most consistent against the run, but Khalen Saunders hasn't been much of a factor until recently. As a whole, Saints defensive tackles have just nine tackles for loss and need better penetration to disrupt opposing running games.
It's at the edge where the New Orleans defense has been especially vulnerable against the run. Future Hall of Famer Cam Jordan has had a drastic decline in his effectiveness and has been dealing with a severe ankle injury for a month. Carl Granderson has had a breakout year as a pass rusher and is good in pursuit of the ball. However, Granderson can get blown off the ball when teams run off-tackle plays right at him.
Veteran DE Tanoh Kpassagnon is a quality backup, but has played more than anticipated because of injuries to ineffective rookie second-round pick Isaiah Foskey. Zack Baun has played far better since being used as a rush end over off-ball linebacker. His undersized frame has allowed opponents to run effectively at him. Payton Turner, a 2021 first-round choice, may be activated after being on injured reserve for 14 games.
Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) is brought down by New Orleans Saints linebacker Demario Davis (56). © Robert Scheer/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK
Demario Davis has shown that he can still be a top-tier linebacker. Davis leads the team with 108 tackles, including nine for loss, and still possesses elite instincts. While still tenacious in pursuit, he's lost a step sideline-to-sideline. This has allowed opposing backs to beat him to the corners, especially since the defensive ends have often put up little resistance to off-tackle plays.
Davis has gotten no help from his running mate at linebacker. While Pete Werner is second on the team in tackles (80), only three of them have been for loss. Werner has regressed badly in his third season and has been a major liability in the open field.
New Orleans defensive backs remain aggressive in run support. However, poor tackling and bad angles to the ball has haunted the defense. This is particularly true at safety, where Tyrann Mathieu and rookie Jordan Howden have allowed several chunk plays. Corners Alontae Taylor, Paulson Adebo, and Isaac Yiadom have also missed some crucial tackles on the second level.
What to Watch
Sep 18, 2022; New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94) stops Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White (29). Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
The Saints will certainly need to contain Tampa Bay star wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin while forcing Baker Mayfield into mistakes. However, the Buccaneers have manhandled New Orleans the last three times these teams have met. The Buccaneers rushed for 114 yards when they beat the Saints in Week 4, providing just enough threat to move the chains and set up play-action passes.
Tampa Bay may focus their running plays to the left side, behind Tristan Wirfs and right at Carl Granderson. Even if the Saints stack their defense to that side, they'll need to win the line of scrimmage to prevent cutbacks from Rachaad White and rushes to the other side.
New Orleans defensive tackles need to be dominant. Not just as pass rushers, but to stifle Tampa Bay's running game to make them one-dimensional. Even on off-tackle runs, interior penetration will be crucial to disrupting the Tampa Bay offense
