Saints Runners May Carry the Key to Victory Against Giants
The New Orleans Saints broke a three-game losing streak with a 28-6 home win over the Carolina Panthers last week. Now 6-7, the Saints try to stay at least tied for first in the NFC South when they host the 5-8 New York Giants this Sunday.
New Orleans has struggled offensively much of the year. They rank 13th in total yardage with 337.5 per game. However, bad play-calling, poor execution, and red zone woes have plagued them all season. The Saints average only 21.9 points per outing, rank 22nd in the red zone, and 19th on third downs.
Facing New Orleans is a Giants defense that's also struggled in several categories. New York ranks 26th in total defense, giving up 24.2 points and 361.4 yards per game. They've allowed 28 or more points in six contests this year, but are actually near the top of the league with 22 turnovers forced. Twelve of those turnovers have come during their three-game winning streak to pull them back within unlikely playoff contention.
Most of the ire of Saints fans is directed at QB Derek Carr, coach Dennis Allen, and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael. Rightfully so, but the Saints have also been unable to sustain a consistent running attack. With a battered corps of receivers and an erratic Carr, they'll need to run for a realistic chance at beating the Giants.
New York Run Defense
November 5, 2023; Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (8) is tackled by New York Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II (97), cornerback Deonte Banks (25), and defensive tackle A'Shawn Robinson (91). Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY
The Giants rank 29th against the run, giving up an average of 135.1 yards per game. Opponents have averaged 4.8 per carry against them, which is 31st in the league. Eleven runners have gained at least 70 yards against New York, including two 100-yard outings.
Fifth-year DT Dexter Lawrence is the most powerful presence on the Giants front line. One of the league's better run defenders, Lawrence consistently pushes double-teams into opposing backfields. He's recorded four tackles for loss, but also clogs inside rushing lanes.
End A'Shawn Robinson was an excellent offseason acquisition for New York. Robinson is a big-bodied power defender that plays end in the Giants base 3-4 front, but is equally effective at tackle when they go to a four-man line. Former Buccaneer Rakeem Nunez-Roches adds that same versatility, while DE Jihad Ward can play with his hand in the ground or as a stand-up rusher outside.
Nov 19, 2023; New York Giants linebacker Bobby Okereke (58) strips the ball from Washington running back Brian Robinson Jr. (8). Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Inside LB Bobby Okereke was another key offseason addition. Leading the Giants with 119 tackles, including nine for loss, Okereke has shown terrific play awareness. Micah McFadden is second on the team with 11 tackles for loss and has 79 total stops. He can play either inside or outside.
Fifth overall choice in the 2022 draft, Kayvon Thibodeaux has come into his own as a pass rusher. He's also an underrated run defender that diagnoses plays quickly and explodes into the backfield. Often injured Azeez Ojulari returned to the lineup a few weeks ago. His presence opposite Thibodeaux allows the team to move McFadden and the athletic Isaiah Simmons around the formation.
Safeties Xavier McKinney and Jason Pinnock are each capable of making plays in the tackle box. Corners Deonte Banks and Adoree' Jackson aren't heavily involved in run support, but are physical defenders that can cut down runners before getting to the second level.
New Orleans Rushing Attack
Sep 30, 2018; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs past New York Giants defenders for a touchdown. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY
The Saints rank just 20th in the NFL with an average of 104.5 rushing yards per game. Worse yet, their 3.7 per carry ranks a lowly 28th and has led to many of their red zone struggles. They've been held to less than 100 rushing yards in seven contests.
The offensive line's inability to control the point of attack is more the culprit for rushing issues than the inability of their backs. There's been an improvement since veteran Andrus Peat took over for Trevor Penning at left tackle. Most of the Saints rushing success have come on off-tackle plays behind RT Ryan Ramczyk or Peat. Ramczyk has been severely limited in practice with a knee injury. There is an immense drop-off there if he can't play, with the Saints likely turning to Landon Young.
A bigger concern is the lack of push from the interior blocking. Guards Cesar Ruiz, James Hurst, and C Erik McCoy and all underperformed compared to their abilities and past accomplishments. McCoy and Ruiz, in particular, have both been inconsistent at best. When they perform well, however, each have excellent power and the agility to pull outside as lead blockers on off-tackle runs or screens.
Nov 26, 2023; New Orleans Saints Taysom Hill (7) runs against the Atlanta Falcons. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY
Alvin Kamara is the team's leading rusher despite missing the first three games with a suspension. Kamara has 564 yards on the ground with a team-best five touchdowns. He's an outstanding cutback runner with elite vision and balance. However, he's only averaged 3.9 per carry and has just one game with over 70 yards on the ground.
Versatile bulldozer Taysom Hill should return to the lineup this week after being sidelined last Sunday with a foot injury. Hill is averaging 4.9 per carry and is second to Kamara with 346 rushing yards and four scores. Most of his carries come on predictable direct snaps, yet defenses still have a hard time stopping him. Hill runs with tremendous power, but also has impressive burst into the open field.
Jamaal Williams was brought in last offseason to be the power complement to Kamara. In nine games, Williams has only 190 yards, no touchdowns, and an average of just three yards per carry. Still, he has good power between the tackles, can push a pile, and a nose for the goal line.
What to Watch
Oct 3, 2021; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs away from the grasp of New York Giants linebacker Lorenzo Carter (59). Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY
Against Carolina last week, Kamara and Williams combined for 11 rushes, 72 yards, and a touchdown through the first quarter and first play of the second. Over the final three quarters, the two backs got only 12 carries and managed 27 yards.
New Orleans must remain patient with the run and open up holes up front against a New York defense that's struggled against the run. If Ramczyk is out then look for the Saints to focus running plays behind Peat and Hurst on the left side.
It'll be difficult to run inside against New York interior defenders Lawrence and Robinson. If they can have some success with it, then that could force the Giants to pinch their defense inside and open up more outside room for Kamara.
Additionally, a productive running game will also set up play-action for Carr and the passing attack and slow the blitz-heavy Giants strategy. With a receiving corps that's still shorthanded, a ground attack might be the best chance for New Orleans offensive success.
