NFL Week 13 Showdown: Key Factors That Could Decide Rams vs. Saints

The New Orleans Saints will try to extend their winning streak to three games when they host the Los Angeles Rams in the Superdome this afternoon. New Orleans, 4-7, won their first two games under interim coach Darren Rizzi before last week's bye.

The Rams enter this game with a 5-6 record. After starting the year 1-4, Los Angeles went on a three-game winning streak before dropping two of their last three, including last week at home against the Eagles.

This is the 80th all-time meeting between the Saints and Rams franchises, two old NFC West rivals from 1970 to 2001. The Rams have a 35-44 advantage in the series, but the gap is much more narrow (19-20) when these teams play in New Orleans. The Saints are 3-1 against the Rams in the Superdome since their return to Los Angeles in 2016, with the only loss being the thievery in the 2019 NFC Championship Game.

Both squads have had streaky seasons, putting each in essentially a must-win situation this afternoon. The winner remains clinging to somewhat thin hopes in the NFC playoff chase, while the loser is all but relegated themselves to watching the postseason from home.

Here are some of the biggest keys to a Saints victory.

Key Player: Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) fights for extra yards against the Los Angeles Rams | Matthew Emmons-Imagn Images

It's no secret that Kamara is the key to the 11th-ranked New Orleans offense. In fact, a strong case could be made that he IS the offense with wideouts Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed still out with injuries. His accomplishments with so much extra defensive attention on him this year make it that much more impressive.

Kamara is having a terrific year, even in spite of little help around him and inconsistent blocking in front of him. He has 782 rushing yards, well on pace for his first 1,000-yard campaign. Kamara also has 443 receiving yards on a team-high 55 catches.

In six career games against the Rams, Kamara has averaged just 48.3 yards rushing but over five catches and 51.5 yards as a receiver. He's been held in check the last four meetings against Los Angeles, managing an average of only 30 yards on the ground.

This season, Los Angeles ranks 28th against the run, allowing 144.8 yards per game and 4.6 per carry. In their six losses, they have given up 172 yards on the ground and 5.3 per rush. The Rams are also 25th in receiving production versus running backs.

Detroit's Jahmyr Gibbs and Philadelphia's Saquon Barkley are the two backs Los Angeles has faced that have Kamara's comparative overall skills set. Against the Rams, Gibbs had 11 carries for 40 yards and four catches for another 34 to go along with David Montgomery's 91 yards rushing. Just last week, Barkley decimated the Rams with 255 yards on the ground and added another four receptions for 47 yards.

Taysom Hill will undoubtedly be a big part of today's game plan for the Saints, especially after his 188 scrimmage yards and three scores against Cleveland. The Derek Carr to Marquez Valdes-Scantling connection could also be big against an LA defense prone to big plays. A productive day from Alvin Kamara will still be the key to success and open up other opportunities for Hill, Valdes-Scantling, and the New Orleans attack.

Key Unit: Saints Defensive Line

New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94) pressures the quarterback against the Los Angeles Rams | Matthew Emmons-Imagn Images

New Orleans comes into Week 13 with 25 sacks, 53 QB pressures, and 50 tackles for loss. Just 18 of those sacks and 25 negative tackles have come from a talented but disappointing defensive line. Additionally, the Saints rank just 24th against the run and last in average per rush.

Those struggles against the run have not been because of linebackers Demario Davis or Pete Werner, each of whom remain tremendously effective. However, their effectiveness has been limited by a front that too often has lost their battles in the trenches. An often invisible pass rush has also allowed opposing quarterbacks plenty of time to dissect Saints coverage.

Ends Carl Granderson, Chase Young, Cam Jordan, Payton Turner, and tackles Bryan Bresee, Nathan Shepherd, and Khalen Saunders were a highly touted group coming into the year. On the field, it's been an ineffective and underachieving unit.

The Saints have been ripped apart by unheard of Buccaneers RB Sean Tucker and a mediocre Denver running game, among other average (or worse) offenses. They'll now face a 26th-ranked LA rushing attack that is 29th in average per carry, but with a talented back capable of production.

When these teams met last year, Rams RB Kyren Williams rushed for 104 yards as Los Angeles raced to a 30-7 lead in an easy wins. Additionally, QB Matthew Stafford was sacked just once and hurried little on his way to 324 yards passing. This 31st ranked New Orleans defense is not a fraction as good as even last year's version on any level.

The Saints defensive line must get penetration, close off rushing lanes, and pressure Stafford to have any chance of winning today. Forcing Stafford into rushed throws will also give a big assist to the day's biggest position matchup.

Key Position Battle: Saints Secondary vs. Rams Receivers

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (17) catches a pass against New Orleans Saints safety Ugo Amadi (0) | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

New Orleans ranks 30th against the pass, allowing an average of 256.7 yards per game through the air and 63.6% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks. The Saints have intercepted 12 passes, among the best in the league, but have given up completions and yards in bunches.

Los Angeles counters with the league's ninth-ranked passing attack. Stafford is still one of the best passers in the game when he gets hot and has four highly productive wideouts in Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, DeMarcus Robinson, and Tutu Atwell along with underrated TE Colby Parkinson.

The Saints will be without corners Paulson Adebo (injured) and Marshon Lattimore (traded). Alontae Taylor and Kool-Aid McKinstry have each had good seasons and a promising future, but haven't been lock-down corners. Rico Payton, Shemar Jean-Charles, and Ugo Amadi have also taken on bigger roles at corner or slot. Safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Will Harris have caused big plays, but have been responsible for giving up nearly as many.

Of Stafford's 24 completions against the Saints last year, 21 went to Nacua, Kupp, and Robinson. New Orleans had no answer for Nacua, who caught 9 passes for 164 yards and a score. Kupp and Robinson added in a combined 12 receptions for 134 yards and a touchdown of their own.

The Rams use a lot of crossing routes and combination patterns that give man schemes like New Orleans fits. However, they are also long-developing routes that require protection up front.

As mentioned above, the Saints can combat this with consistent pressure. On the back end, New Orleans must remain disciplined in coverage while also disrupting the routes of the Los Angeles receivers. Doing so will prevent Stafford from getting into a rhythm, something that spelled doom for New Orleans last year.