Analysis: What Would DK Metcalf Extension With Seahawks Look Like?

With Metcalf not being dealt before the 2022 NFL Draft, Seattle plans to keep him around as a building block for its next contender. How much will the front office have to pony up to lock him up long-term?

Over the past three months, the NFL has seen an astounding number of star players change teams in one of the most active offseasons in league history. Hitting the reset button, the Seahawks were at the forefront of the chaos, shockingly trading quarterback Russell Wilson to the Broncos and releasing All-Pro linebacker Bobby Wagner in March.

But while Wilson's move to the Mile High City may stand out as the most important addition made by any team this spring, this offseason has truly been defined by unprecedented movement coupled with skyrocketing contracts for superstar receivers.

The madness began when the Packers couldn't come to terms with Davante Adams on a new contract, forcing them to trade him to the Raiders in a rare sign-and-trade deal. Shortly thereafter, the Chiefs shipped Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins, who gave him a record-setting extension that surpassed Adams' deal. Then, during the 2022 NFL Draft, the Titans stunned the football world by sending A.J. Brown to the Eagles, who promptly signed him to a monster extension.

On the heels of the Adams and Hill trades, considering the soaring cost of elite receivers and the team's rebuilding state minus Wilson and Wagner, speculation about DK Metcalf's future in Seattle ensued. With the young star entering the last year of his rookie deal, many wondered if a trade like the one Tennessee ultimately made with Brown would materialize on draft weekend.

However, the Seahawks never entertained the idea of trading away Metcalf, who reported for the start of the team's offseason program on April 18 despite his contract situation. Oddly enough, he then turned around and didn't report for mandatory minicamp, choosing to stay back in California to continue his rehab and send a message to the front office.

While coach Pete Carroll didn't offer much insight on talks with Metcalf after the draft wrapped up, he made it clear Seattle planned to accelerate negotiations in coming weeks to work towards a multi-year extension with hopes of getting something done in the near future.

"We'll kick it into John [Schneider]'s court here in the weeks to come and all, but we're really communicating great," Carroll said. "And DK, we've been a great wavelength to move forward and hopefully it will all work out. We don't plan on him going anywhere else, we want him to be with us."

With the Seahawks opting to build around Metcalf as a foundational building block for their next playoff contender and reportedly "laying the groundwork" for an extension according to NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport, Schneider and the front office will have to back up the Brinks truck to the VMAC to pay the star wideout market value, especially after he decided not to report for minicamp. Investigating other contracts signed by players such as Adams and Hill this offseason, what may such an extension look like?

The first domino to fall at the receiver position this offseason, Adams told the Packers he wouldn't sign a new deal to stay in Green Bay, preferring to re-join former Fresno State teammate Derek Carr with the Raiders. The two sides were able to swing a deal with the Packers receiving first and second-round picks in exchange for the two-time All-Pro, who agreed to a five-year, $140 million contract as part of the trade agreement.

Under the terms of the deal, Adams received $22.75 million in full guarantees and $65.67 million in guarantees for injury along with a $19.25 million signing bonus. Immediately upon signing, his 2022 base salary became guaranteed and if he's on the roster in March 2023, his 2023 and 2024 base salaries and 2023 roster bonus of $20 million will all become guaranteed. To sweeten the pot, the Raiders added annual per game bonuses, workout bonuses, and $1.25 million in Pro Bowl incentives.

While Hill didn't force his way out of Kansas City, the cap-strapped Chiefs couldn't afford to retain him and worked with multiple teams on a potential trade, ultimately dealing him to the Dolphins, who parted with a first, second, and fourth-round pick to acquire the three-time First-Team All-Pro. As part of the agreement, he inked a four-year, $120 million extension, making him the highest-paid receiver in the NFL.

Analyzing Hill's record deal, the speedy receiver didn't simply net the highest annual salary for his position. Desperate for a weapon on the outside, Miami gave him $53.535 million fully guaranteed - his 2022 and 2023 salaries - and $72.2 million in guarantees for injury. If he's on the roster on the fifth day of the new league year, his 2024 salary will become fully guaranteed.

What makes Hill's contract a bit different, however, is that the Dolphins added a final year to the contract that functions like a void year with a $43.9 million base and a modest $5.1 million dead cap hit. At that point, he will be 32 years old, so the team could move on or sign him to a new contract to lower his cap hit.

Before the Titans shook up the first round of the draft by jettisoning Brown, Bills receiver Stefon Diggs took full advantage of the spending spree for top receivers by signing an extension of his own for four years and $96 million. While he didn't net as high of an annual salary as Hill and Adams, his contract paid out $70 million in guarantees, including $47.985 million guaranteed at signing. He also tacked on a $16 million guaranteed option bonus in 2023 with void years in 2027 and 2028 to lower cap hits.

As for Brown, while the Titans reportedly weren't willing to eclipse $20 million per year to extend him, the Eagles were more than happy to pay him top dollar. After trading a first and third-round pick to acquire him, they signed him to a four-year, $100 million extension with $40 million guaranteed at signing and $57.22 million in total guarantees. His salary for the first two years of the extension is guaranteed along with $3.779 million of his 2024 salary.

If Brown remains on the roster on the third day of the 2023 league year, the remainder of his 2024 salary becomes guaranteed, including workout and roster bonuses. To help mitigate salary cap charges throughout the duration of his contract, Philadelphia tacked on two void years in 2027 and 2018.

Looking for commonalities between these contracts, the Raiders, Dolphins, Bills, and Eagles all shelled out huge guaranteed salaries, including fully guaranteed salaries for multiple seasons. Each player also received a signing bonus of at least $19.5 million. As illustrated by Hill and Brown's deals, void years also remain in vogue to an extent.

In recent weeks, two other notable star receivers - Rams wideout Cooper Kupp and Commanders wideout Terry McLaurin - struck three-year agreements with their respective teams, potentially making an extension for Metcalf even more expensive.

Kupp, who pulled off the triple crown last season leading the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns, will earn $80.1 million over three years on the extension. Close to $27 million annually, the contract deservedly puts him in the top-five highest-paid at the position with Adams, Hill, and Hopkins.

As for McLaurin, despite playing with subpar quarterbacks throughout his career thus far, the ex-Ohio State standout eclipsed 1,000 yards for the second consecutive season to pace Washington's passing attack. He signed the dotted line on a three-year, $71 million extension worth north of $23 million per year, making him the seventh highest-paid receiver in the sport.

What do these deals mean for Metcalf and the Seahawks as they try to hammer out an extension of their own? Comparing contracts can be like comparing apples to oranges, especially in this instance.

With only one season of more than 1,000 receiving yards on his resume and a lone All-Pro selection, Metcalf hasn't posted as gaudy of overall numbers as Hill, Adams, or Diggs. From a production standpoint, Seattle could potentially argue he hasn't quite earned $28 million per year as one of the three highest-paid at his position.

But at the same time, the 6-foot-3, 228-pound Metcalf just turned 24 years old in December and remains an ascending superstar. According to Pro Football Reference, he's one of only five players in NFL history to produce 3,100 receiving yards, 200 receptions, and 29 receiving touchdowns in his first three seasons. With that achievement, he's in exclusive company with the likes of Hall of Famers Randy Moss and Jerry Rice.

Metcalf has also already made history in Seattle, breaking Steve Largent's single-season receiving yardage record in 2020. He also ranks first in the franchise record books for receiving yards and receptions in his first three seasons while only trailing Daryl Turner in receiving touchdowns.

Considering his youth, rare physical talents, and impressive numbers to start his career, Metcalf and his agent should be pushing for a four-year pact worth between $100 and $110 million and north of $70 million in guarantees. In other words, a deal in the range between what the Eagles paid Brown annually and the top three contracts signed by Adams, Hill, and Kupp should be perfect for both parties.

Based on how Seattle typically conducts business, one may expect Metcalf's contract to more closely resemble Brown's deal in terms of structure with backloaded salary. But with Wilson's contract coming off the books next year, Schneider may be more willing to offer more guaranteed money up front.

Regardless of how guaranteed money, signing bonuses, and roster bonuses shake out when pen meets paper, the Seahawks shouldn't have any hesitations in paying Metcalf. While he earned such a lucrative deal with his sensational play over the past three years, even with a downgrade at quarterback, he projects to only get better in coming seasons as a focal point in their offense and anticipated future production makes him well worth the investment.