Analysis: What's Behind Seahawks' Chronic Third Down Troubles?
With seven games left to play, the Seahawks could easily pack it in looking towards 2022. They have lost five of their past six games. At 3-7, they are in the cellar in the NFC West. Only the winless Lions currently have a worse record within the conference.
But as the calendar approaches December, players and coaches alike haven't stopped believing Seattle can still turn things around. When asked following Sunday's 23-13 loss to Arizona why he remained hopeful about the team's chances, Pete Carroll cited the talent and leaders in the locker room and those on his staff who he maintains the utmost confidence in.
"It's the guys that we're coaching. It's the way we operate. It's the attitude they've had on a regular basis. It's the coaches that work to keep pushing and attacking the issues and, I mean, everything about it. Everything about it, because I don't feel any different," Carroll responded. "I feel like we're going to win next week, and we're going to go play a great game on the East Coast and come on back here and get ready for the next one, and I don't have any other thought in my mind."
Despite how bleak the situation looks at the moment, the Seahawks do have a favorable remaining schedule, including home games against the Lions and Bears as well as a road date with the lowly Texans in Week 14. Only five teams in the conference sit above the .500 mark as well, keeping the door slightly cracked open for teams with losing records to still make a run down the stretch.
Of course, for such a miraculous turnaround to come to fruition, Seattle will likely have to win out or go 6-1 in the final seven games. This means sweeping the aforementioned three below .500 teams while winning all but one of four games against Washington, Arizona, San Francisco, and the Los Angeles Rams.
That's far from an easy path, especially considering the Seahawks haven't won back-to-back games since last December. Nothing suggests a lengthy winning streak is in the cards, but if it is going to happen, the team must find a way to solve the biggest mystery that has derailed its season thus far: converting third downs offensively.
For the season, Seattle ranks 30th in the league in third down conversion percentage, moving the chains on only 32.4 percent of their opportunities. Only Detroit and Jacksonville, who have won a combined two games, have been worse, which isn't exactly the type of company a team with sights on contending wants to keep.
A prolonged issue since the season opener, the Seahawks haven't had a single game with better than a 46 percent conversion rate, and in that loss to the Packers in Week 10, they picked up a first down on only one of their first seven third downs. In five of their 10 games, they failed to exceed a 30 percent conversion rate, including dismal 2-for-10 performances against the 49ers in Week 4 and on Sunday against the Cardinals.
Clearly aggravated by having to address the same issue week after week after week, Carroll bailed his post-game press conference on Sunday early before eventually returning to apologize and answer additional questions. At this point, he doesn't seem to have an answer for why third downs have been such tough sledding for his team.
"It's just been the same throughout the season," a bewildered Carroll said. "When we were chunking plays and going first down, second downs, and having fast drives and moving the ball quickly, you know, we weren't aware of the issue. But even then when we did have our third down opportunities, we were erratic with our ability to move the football, and it's just been amplified now when we're not hitting the bigger plays, and so we're working on it."
Why have the Seahawks been so awful converting third downs? Diving deeper into the numbers and revisiting film, these four issues have been at the center of the chronic struggles moving the chains in 2021. All statistics are provided by Pro Football Reference un
1. Russell Wilson has been abysmal on third down regardless of distance.
Historically, Wilson hasn't been elite on third down, but he has put up a quality stat line compared to most of his peers since entering the league in 2012. During that span, he ranks eighth in passing yards, eighth in first downs, and seventh in touchdown passes. On the flip side, among passers with at least 650 attempts, he ranks just 15th in completion percentage (59.2), 13th in yards per attempt (7.4), and 11th in passer rating (91.9).
But all of those numbers look fantastic compared to how poorly Wilson has performed this year on third down. Out of all quarterbacks with at least 30 pass attempts in such situations, Wilson ranks dead last with a 35.1 percent completion rate, nearly 10 percent behind the next lowest with Jaguars rookie Trevor Lawrence completing 44 percent. He ranks 30th in yards per attempt (5.9), 35th in first downs (10), and 29th in passer rating (62.7).
While some may point to Wilson's injured right middle finger that cost him three games as the culprit for these struggles, the eight-time Pro Bowl signal caller was arguably worse before undergoing surgery. He still ranked dead-last among quarterbacks with at least 20 third down attempts with a 34.8 completion rate, and if not for a 68-yard touchdown to Freddie Swain against severely busted coverage in Week 2 versus the Titans, his yardage totals would be have been dramatically worse.
There's not a quarterback controversy in Seattle, but it is worth noting that backup Geno Smith performed much more efficiently on third down in four games played, including three starts replacing Wilson. Along with posting a completion rate nearly 30 points higher, he completed eight passes for first downs, only two less than his counterpart on 15 less attempts. He also threw for a slightly higher 6.3 yards per attempt and a passer rating close to 23 points better.
2. Targets haven't been well-distributed to Seattle's best playmakers.
Few teams have a duo of receivers better than DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who both eclipsed 1,000 yards in 2020. But for whatever reason, Wilson and the Seahawks haven't been able to get the football to either of them consistently on third down and targets have shockingly been limited in these situations.
This has especially been the case for the Lockett, who has only been targeted three times by Wilson on 37 pass attempts, with his lone reception being a 23-yard touchdown reception against the Colts in the season opener. While Metcalf has four times as many targets, he's only caught three of those passes for 63 yards, a pair of first downs, and no touchdowns.
To further put these numbers into perspective, Wilson has targeted Swain nine times, more than Lockett and tight end Gerald Everett have been targeted combined. The second-year wideout hasn't been any better efficiency-wise, with 68 of his 87 yards coming on the touchdown versus Tennessee. Excluding that explosive, he's caught just two out of eight targets for 19 yards. The only other player on Seattle's roster with more than a single third down target? That would be running back Travis Homer, who has caught all three passes thrown his direction for 20 yards and two first downs.
There's a number of factors at play when it comes to this unideal distribution and lack of overall touches for Metcalf, Lockett, and Everett. Wilson's poor accuracy has played a part, particularly given his low 25 percent hit rate to Metcalf, and long-developing route concepts dialed up by offensive coordinator Shane Waldron - or audibled to by Wilson himself - have hindered his ability to get the football to them.
3. Pass protection hasn't held up well, particularly on 3rd and medium or longer.
Protecting Wilson has long been an Achilles heel for the Seahawks. No quarterback has been sacked more over the past 10 seasons, as opposing defenders have gotten to him a whopping 167 times on third down. That's 15 more than Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan, who sits a distant second behind him.
This year, even with three games missed due to injury, Wilson has been sacked 20 times, tied for the seventh-most in the NFL. More than half of those sacks have come on third down on just 53 combined drop backs, meaning he hit the turf on nearly 21 percent of those plays. The majority of those sacks (8) came in third and long scenarios where Seattle needed seven or more yards to get a first down.
Along the offensive line, typically reliable veteran Duane Brown has endured a challenging 14th season. After orchestrating a "hold in" seeking a new contract in August, he already has allowed seven sacks, the second-most by any tackle in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus. Centers Ethan Pocic and Kyle Fuller have combined to allow four, while tackle Brandon Shell already has matched his total from a year ago allowing a trio of sacks.
Of course, as has been the case throughout his career, Wilson deserves a share of the blame for the amount of punishment he takes based on his playing style. He has always had a propensity for holding onto the football too long, desiring the deep ball while passing up opportunities to take underneath throws presented to him. Although his ability to extend plays outside the pocket often pays off for the Seahawks, it also puts strain on the line and has frequently led to huge losses on sacks over the years.
4. Miscues on early downs continue to put the 'Hawks in "third-and-catastrophe" situations and they aren't succeeding enough in third-and-medium situations.
From Carroll's perspective, the Seahawks have had too many third downs where they needed to get at least seven yards. Statistics bear that out, as 66 percent of their third downs have been at that distance or further. In 2020, only 53 percent of their third downs fit that criteria and in 2019, they were at 58 percent.
Though that may not seem like a big deal, a 13 percent increase in third and long situations is a striking difference that has most definitely had an impact on Seattle's poor conversion percentage. Whether its been due to sacks on Wilson and Smith or botched toss plays to running backs or blown up flea flicker screens, the team has continued to find ways to lose big chunks of yardage to set up what Carroll called "third-and-catastrophe" scenarios and consequently destroyed drives in the process.
But while Carroll wants to see more favorable third downs more frequently by avoiding negative plays on early downs, what has frustrated him the most has been been the team's dreadful performance third and medium situations where they need to pick up four to six yards to convert. These are far more manageable third downs and yet, the Seahawks have posted an ugly 21.4 percent conversion rate when Wilson is on field and a 28.6 percent overall conversion rate in such scenarios this season. That's just not going to cut it.
Comparatively, Seattle converted third downs with four to six yards to gain at a 46.8 percent clip in 2020. The two years prior, they converted 42.2 percent in 2019 and 48.1 percent in 2018, meaning all three seasons with Brian Schottenheimer calling the plays were around 20 percent more efficient than this season has been thus far.
“The third-and-medium is really the area where we’ve got to convert. Short yardage, we’ve done pretty well," Carroll said on Monday. "It’s just a matter of staying out of the real long ones and continue to convert on the short ones. The area of focus is really in the middle, from four to 10, right in there. They are the ones where we’ve got to create more of them, but that’s where we’ve got to win.”
