Even If Cut, Seahawks Would Be Wise to Resist Temptation of Acquiring Baker Mayfield
Where will Baker Mayfield play in 2022? It’s been a constant story in the NFL since the Browns pursuit of Deshaun Watson was made public and the former Oklahoma star requested a trade, and yet, there hasn't been any significant movement finding a new team for the 2018 No. 1 overall pick.
As the NFL heads towards training camp, there has been some clarity added to quarterback situations around the league. The Colts, thought of as a potential suitor for Mayfield, traded for Matt Ryan instead. The Steelers drafted Kenny Pickett in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft at No. 20 overall. Another possible landing spot, the Falcons, signed Marcus Mariota in free agency and drafted Desmond Ridder to help replace Ryan.
As things stand, the Browns have almost no leverage in this situation. They already traded a bounty of picks for Watson despite his ongoing legal woes and gave him an absurd $230 million fully guaranteed contract. Mayfield understandably doesn’t want to be there. While the franchise doesn’t have to get rid of Baker, they probably will because of the fractured relationship and presence of Watson.
With most teams set at quarterback, two teams consistently still speculated as his next destination are the Panthers and the Seahawks. Carolina reportedly considered trading for Mayfield during the draft, but ultimately did not and drafted Matt Corral. A move there could still happen, but it seems less likely, leaving Seattle as perhaps the last opportunity for him to be a starting quarterback in 2022.
To be honest, I actually like Mayfield and it’s not just because of his commercials. When the Browns drafted him in 2018, I thought it was a great pick. He’s got moxie and has talent to go along with that confidence. Mayfield played below expectations in 2021 statistically, but he showed toughness gutting it out through a bad shoulder injury. When he was healthy in 2020, he led the Browns to an 11-5 record while throwing 26 touchdowns and only eight interceptions.
In reality, Mayfield is likely a better option for the Seahawks in 2022 than either Geno Smith or Drew Lock. And yet, acquiring him would be the wrong move for the Seahawks.
The Browns want something in return and could possibly accept a late round pick if the team acquiring Mayfield takes on a large chunk of the $18.9 million fifth year option due next season. Don’t fret Seahawks fans – general manager John Schneider ain’t down with that. They would have made the deal already if they were interested at that price to give Mayfield the best opportunity to succeed with a full offseason in Seattle.
In fact, I don’t even think the Seahawks would trade for Mayfield if Cleveland picked up most of that hefty chunk of that salary. The only way it might make sense for Schneider to entertain acquiring Mayfield would be if the Browns cut him and he can be signed to a veteran's minimum deal. But even then, that decision is not necessarily in the best interest of the team’s future.
If Mayfield does end up as the starting quarterback for the Seahawks, there's a strong likelihood the team finishes with a better record than they would have with either Geno Smith or Drew Lock as the starter. How much better? It’s not out of the question that the Seahawks could reach double digit wins and challenge for the playoffs with a healthy Mayfield. Sounds great, right? On the surface, sure, but what does that do the quarterback decision for 2023?
Mayfield already considers himself a top quarterback and leading this Seahawks roster to the playoffs in 2022 would give him more ammo in contract negotiations. Would Schneider really want to pay Mayfield an exorbitant amount of money one offseason after trading away Russell Wilson - at least partially - because they didn’t want to pay top dollar at the position? The team would finally have significant salary cap space to work with when Wilson’s deal comes off the books in 2023 and could focus on strengthening the roster through free agency with a cheaper quarterback contract as they did back in 2012.
Even if the Seahawks could sign Mayfield to a mid-level contract next spring, it's debatable whether it would be worth it. In 2020 – his best season – he finished 10th in QBR and 15th in passer rating while guiding the Browns to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. In his other three seasons combined, Mayfield posted 18 wins to go along with 66 touchdowns and 48 interceptions.
Shouldn’t the aim be higher, so Seattle doesn’t get stuck in purgatory with a quarterback who’s good, but not good enough? The goal should be to get at least a top-10 quarterback and Mayfield simply hasn’t performed consistently like that thus far. Based on how he's played, it's unlikely he will become that guy either.
If the Seahawks decided not to pay Mayfield, they would have to replace him with either another high-priced option via trade or free agency or a 2023 draft pick – which would be later in the first round because of the additional wins he helped provide. The 2023 NFL Draft is supposed to feature a very strong quarterback class, but the best prospects such as Ohio State's C.J. Stroud and Alabama's Bryce Young will go in the top 10. Seattle would have a tougher time trying to trade up to acquire one of those prospects unless Wilson underperforms with the Broncos, and that's wishful thinking for 12s.
Don't get me wrong - the Seahawks should try to win as many games as possible. There's no way they avoid Mayfield for the purpose of “tanking” and there’s zero chance Pete Carroll or Schneider are thinking that way. The reality is, however, that only one in 32 teams will win the Super Bowl in 2022. The odds that the Seahawks are that team right now are incredibly low. Adding Mayfield to the mix would maybe move the needle, but only slightly. Those added wins might make fans feel better, but it would eventually leave the franchise with a much more difficult path to secure their quarterback of the future.
