Lacking Draft Capital and Cap Space, Seahawks Must Be Open to Trading Proven Veterans
Now entering his 12th offseason calling the shots for the franchise, Seahawks general manager John Schneider isn't a stranger when it comes to dealing with diminished draft capital and/or a lack of salary cap flexibility.
From a drafting standpoint, only two short years ago, Schneider had just four picks at his disposal heading into the 2019 NFL Draft. He turned around and traded Frank Clark to the Chiefs for a first-round pick and a future second-round pick to improve that situation substantially. On two different occasions in his tenure, Seattle didn't have a first-round pick after trading for receiver Percy Harvin and tight end Jimmy Graham in separate blockbuster deals.
As for dealing with a cap crunch, the Seahawks haven't had much room to operate financially for the better part of a decade. Along with locking up quarterback Russell Wilson with his first mega deal, the organization has also rewarded numerous defensive stars such as Bobby Wagner and Earl Thomas with record-setting contracts, leaving little wiggle room to add outside free agents over the years.
But this offseason, with the COVID-19 pandemic still impacting the NFL landscape, Schneider may face his most daunting challenge yet.
Like two years ago, the Seahawks only have four draft picks after sending a first and third-round pick to the Jets in exchange for safety Jamal Adams and sending a seventh-round pick to the Bengals for defensive end Carlos Dunlap. They have only one pick in the first three rounds - No. 56 overall in the second round - leaving Schneider further hamstrung when it comes to trying to recoup additional picks via trading down.
In addition, with the NFL salary cap expected to plummet to $175-$180 million for 2021, Seattle currently has anywhere from $1.8 to $6.8 million in cap space available per OverTheCap.com. At the lowest estimate, that's not enough money to pay the incoming rookie class, let alone re-sign players or add outside free agents.
As noted in an earlier article this offseason, Schneider could correct the second issue to an extent by extending several players one year early. Making such moves would lower cap hits for 2021 and keep keep key contributors under contract for the foreseeable future.
But even if Schneider manages to extend players such as Dunlap and Jarran Reed who currently carry cap hits north of $13 million, such moves only provide short-term relief and wouldn't improve the team's lack of draft capital. The savings generated by these extensions would be consumed quickly by Seattle simply re-signing a few of its own free agents.
While the Seahawks don't want to make any moves that will negatively impact their chances at making a Super Bowl run next year, the franchise currently doesn't have the assets in place to improve the roster right now. In order to execute their offseason plan of making up ground on the NFC's elite this offseason, Schneider may have to consider parting ways with a proven asset or two to acquire draft picks and create cap relief, knocking out two birds with one stone.
The problem? In terms of return value, Schneider doesn't have many moveable assets that will net more than a third or fourth rounder in compensation, especially with other teams battling the same salary cap limitations.
As far as trade value is concerned, Adams may be Seattle's greatest trade chip and most closely resemble Clark's situation two years ago. He's only 25 years old, just earned his third All-Pro selection in three years, and offers a unique skill set unlike any other safety in the game. There were plenty of other teams sniffing around when New York started fielding offers to trade him last summer and if he became available again, suitors would emerge looking to strike a deal.
However, unlike Clark, Adams is coming off multiple surgeries and needs a new contract, so the Seahawks wouldn't net anything close to the package sent to the Jets back in July, which included two first-round picks. Schneider would be lucky to recoup a first-round selection and maybe an early day three pick if he opted to trade him.
Coming off his sixth straight First-Team All-Pro selection, moving linebacker Bobby Wagner could also be considered given his substantial $17.15 million cap hit. But trying to move a contract of that size for a soon-to-be 31-year old defender wouldn't generate much interest and at best, another team might be willing to trade a second-round pick for the future Hall of Famer. That's simply not a good enough return on investment for a player who is still playing at an elite level.
With Adams and Wagner unlikely to be traded, for the Seahawks to add draft picks and receive a reasonable return on investment amid tough circumstances, Schneider may have to shop receiver Tyler Lockett, Reed, and Dunlap instead. All three will be entering the final year of their respective contracts and each carries a cap hit of at least $13.9 million in 2021.
Since arriving as a third round pick in 2015, Lockett has grown into one of the best receivers in the NFL catching passes from Wilson. He's only 29 years old, has produced back-to-back seasons with 1,000-plus receiving yards, and has scored at least eight touchdowns in each of the past three seasons.
Despite being a fan favorite, however, Lockett's impressive production and age may make him the most appealing trade chip Schneider has that he may be willing to part with. He's still young enough to believe he has several outstanding seasons left in him and may be able to fetch a third-round pick from a receiver-needy team. His departure would create another major area of need behind DK Metcalf on the outside, but that may be the best draft compensation Schneider can realistically get his hands on.
As for Dunlap and Reed, though both are quality starters, Seattle may have a tougher time getting much value in return for a variety of reasons. Dunlap will turn 32 later this month and entering his 12th NFL season, teams won't be in a hurry to give up much more than a fifth or sixth-round pick in exchange for his $14 million cap hit.
While Reed is significantly younger, he also plays a less prioritized position as a defensive tackle and has a $13.975 million cap hit that other teams could be scared off by. To absorb such a contract, the Seahawks may have to settle for a sixth or even a seventh-round pick to move his contract off the books.
In either case, the Seahawks could work with the trade partner to sign an extension for the player to help facilitate the deal and receive slightly better compensation in return. But again, given the climate in the NFL right now, pulling off such a trade won't be easy with most other teams also trying to work their way out of salary cap hell.
Ultimately, Schneider would love to be able to conduct offseason business without having to move any of his top players. In a perfect scenario, many of the aforementioned players such as Lockett, Reed, and Dunlap would be extended to help ease the financial burden on the franchise rather than trade them for pennies on the dollar.
Nonetheless, sometimes a team has to take a step backward to eventually take two steps forward. That may very well be the case for Schneider and the Seahawks, who will likely have to make some agonizing business decisions in coming months to help the team get closer to their goal of returning to the Super Bowl.
