New Stat Shows Seahawks Have Potentially Elite Backfield Tandem
Running backs don't matter. They are interchangeable. In fact, running the football is pointless. You should throw almost every down. Do not pay these players. These are the things people say who think they understand the new wave of analytics in the NFL. They are especially prominent in the Seahawks "Let Russ Cook" fan camp and their sentiment is impossible to escape from on social media.
And yet, there is a grain of truth to these calls. The simple fact is, most running backs are pretty interchangeable. There isn't a big difference between an average back and a good back and it is the easiest position to find help at in the NFL. But what these calls tend to ignore is the very real fact that there is a big difference between average backs and great backs and there are some at the position worth paying.
It has been argued by yours truly that the Seahawks should aggressively pursue a contract extension with starting running back Chris Carson, a point from which I have never wavered. If you are going to run the ball as much as Pete Carroll is going to, you can't have "some guy off the street" as your primary runner. You don't have to look any further than the 2019 Seahawks playoff run to prove that point.
We know Carroll isn't getting fired anytime soon, despite the calls of a handful of sophomoric fans, and we know he will never fully abandon his balanced offensive approach. Seattle will run the ball. And if that's the case, they'll need a great running back or a great offensive line.
Obviously, you would prefer to have a great offensive line. But that is much more expensive and difficult to build. So having a great running back is your other option, which leads to the question: do the Seahawks have a great running back?
Well, according to NFL.com's Next Gen Stat Analytics Team, the answer is yes. They have created a new statistic called expected rushing yards. There is a full breakdown available by clicking here, but to make a long story short, here is how they describe it:
"Expected Rushing Yards (xRY): How many rushing yards is a ball carrier expected to gain on a given carry based on the relative location, speed, and direction of blockers and defenders?"
In a sense, this is a bit like the baseball statistic WAR (wins above replacement) but instead leads to yards above average. In short, xRY is the total number of yards an average NFL RB would get under the same circumstances. As you might expect, there aren't a ton of surprises inside the top five runners to gain more RYOE (rushing yards over expectation) than their peers. Those top five are Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, Christian McCaffery, and Saquon Barkley.
But coming in at number six is none other than Carson. That's right, Carson is amongst the best backs in the league at gaining more yards than what is blocked for him. The analytics team wrote, in part:
"Carson joined McCaffrey on our list of most explosive runners with the last but definitely not least position, so it shouldn't be a huge surprise to see him in this group, as well. Anyone who watched Seattle perform down the stretch without him also won't be stunned to see the numbers tell us what we also saw with our own eyes: Carson achieved above expectation in 2019..."
But the fun doesn't end there for Seahawks fans because another Seahawk actually landed himself inside the Top 10 for his 2019 performance. Carlos Hyde, who recently signed on as the number two back, ranks eighth in RYOE, giving Seattle two of the top 10, the only team to have such a tandem.
Most of the Seahawks offseason moves have been built around the passing game. While these moves aren't going to excite any fans, the signings of Brandon Shell, B.J. Finney, Greg Olsen, and Phillip Dorsett appear to be signs that the Seahawks may be ready to open up their offense slightly as both of the lineman are better in pass protection than their predecessors and Olsen isn't a great run blocking tight end.
But Seattle has two running backs who are among the best in the league at creating extra yards that aren't blocked for them and that isn't an accident. The Seahawks are building an exciting offense that should mesh well to play to the strengths of each position group.
Whether you think the Seahawks should pay Carson long term or not, he is, without question, not "just another guy." In fact, the numbers show that he is anything but that.
