Seahawks Extension Candidate: Rashaad Penny
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One of the few bright spots on the Seahawks' offense during the second half of the 2021 campaign, Rashaad Penny has taken over as the No. 1 running back—three-and-a-half years after Seattle selected him in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. Penny has recorded double-digit carries for four consecutive weeks—a new career-high—and the results have been great.
In these four games, Penny has rushed 54 times for 346 yards, good for 6.41 yards per carry, as well as three touchdowns. Over a 17-game season, these numbers pace for 1,470 yards and 13 touchdowns. Statistically speaking, Penny has been a top-flight running back for the past month.
But what may matter more than the raw numbers is the style we are seeing from Penny since he claimed the starting running back job. Penny has always flashed big-play potential, and his career 5.2 YPC rate is a testament to that ability. But over the past month, Penny has shown ability, and willingness, to get down and dirty to keep the Seahawks in more manageable situations. We're seeing him take the four-yard run, while simultaneously retaining his big-play abilities. To put it another way: Penny has stopped swinging for the fences on every play and is now perfectly content to take his opposite-field single.
The fact still remains that Penny is a rather untrustworthy running back from a health standpoint. As he begins to wrap up his fourth season in the NFL, Penny has never amassed more than 85 rushing attempts in any season and has only been active for 11 or more games once. Seattle declined the fifth-year option on Penny last offseason, so unless an extension is agreed upon, Penny will become an unrestricted free agent in March.
Pete Carroll has voiced his support for the return of Penny this offseason, but Carroll's own job security creates a possibility that Penny will not be seen as a fit by a new head coach. In addition, the free-agent waters haven't been kind to non-elite running backs in recent offseasons. Last spring, no running back eclipsed the $5.5 million APY clip, including the more productive Chris Carson and the more reliable Kenyan Drake. James White, Jamaal Williams, and Phillip Lindsey all settled between $2.46 and $3.25 million and no running back got more than two years.
In reality, unless he is blown away by a ridiculous overpay offer, Penny should be looking for a one-year contract. This would allow him to hit the market again in 2023 with the cap set boom once again. In theory, if Penny can stay healthy and accumulate 200 or more touches in 2022, he could be in line for a three-year deal worth somewhere in the $16-20 million range. But right now, the fairest market comp is likely Marlon Mack, who signed a one-year, $2 million contract with the Colts last offseason. Like Penny, Mack has had a difficult time staying on the field the past two seasons, though Mack does have a 1,000-yard season under his belt.
Either way, Penny is highly unlikely to get a second guaranteed year, and familiarity with Seattle and its scheme, as well as the injury concerns surrounding Carson, makes the Seahawks the best landing spot for him. A one-year deal, worth between $1.5-2.5 million should be seen as a win-win for team and player, making Penny a cheap, yet exciting, talent for the Seahawks to build their run game around in 2022.
