Surviving Disaster: What Would Seahawks Do if Russell Wilson Opted Out?
There is no player more valuable to his team than Russell Wilson is to the Seahawks. The entire season revolves around the health of Wilson. So long as he plays, the Seahawks are Super Bowl contenders. If disaster strikes, they may be one of the 10 worst teams in the league.
Now, Wilson is arguably the most durable player in the league and hasn't missed a start since he entered the league in 2012. But 2020 brings a new set of challenges to his durability in the form of the greatest health crisis in our lifetimes in the form of COVID-19. In an effort to protect teams and players, the latest NFL proposal calls for a minimum of three weeks missed after testing positive for the virus.
Players who are concerned about contracting the virus can opt-out of the 2020 season by August 1. Which leads me to the question of the day: what if Wilson decided not to play in 2020?
It is worth noting that there is no indication that Wilson plans to do this. The fact he's been seen working out with other players such as Antonio Brown despite the NFLPA advising players not to conduct group workouts until training camp indicates he's all in on playing this year.
However, Wilson's wife Ciara is pregnant, which classifies the star quarterback as a high-risk player and regardless of what he chooses to do, it will be a decision everyone will respect.
In the unlikely does happen, what could the Seahawks do five weeks before kickoff? What are the options available to them? Which options are the most likely to happen? Let's take a look at these five options.
1. Start Geno Smith
With 31 career starts under his belt, Smith is quite familiar with the Seahawks offense and the weapons that surround him. He would be the most likely replacement on such short notice after being Wilson's backup a year ago.
Seattle's coaching staff is well aware of the strengths of Smith and can pretty easily tailor a game plan before Week 1 to help get the most out of his tools. But there is a major issue with starting Smith and it is his limited ceiling. As he showed starting for the Jets, he isn't getting an NFL team to the playoffs, especially not the Seahawks in the vaunted NFC West.
2. Start Anthony Gordon
This option is probably amongst the least likely options. Gordon lost all meaningful reps in the canceled rookie minicamp and OTAs and hasn't been seen by the coaching staff at all since he signed as a priority undrafted free agent. With the possibility of zero preseason games and just five weeks of practice to unseat Smith, Gordon is at a distinct disadvantage.
However, starting Gordon could actually be in the best interest of Seattle. Unlike Smith, Gordon has an unknown ceiling and has some traits that could see him with the team for the foreseeable future. In addition, Seattle can simultaneously raise the trade value of Gordon while learning valuable information about a potential long-term backup plan to Wilson.
The Panthers got a fifth round pick for Kyle Allen, so if Gordon is serviceable, teams will come calling. In addition, since neither Gordon nor Smith is likely to get their team to the playoffs, the difference between winning four games or six games is negligible and could actually hurt Seattle in the long run for draft capital.
3. Sign Colin Kaepernick
The Seahawks decided not to get involved in the quarterback market in free agency, passing on experienced starting quarterbacks like Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, and Jameis Winston. And as a result, the list of street free agents at the position is as dry as you'd expect. Kaepernick is, without question, the best option available in free agency.
Kaepernick hasn't played in four years, but the Seahawks are the only team that has at least publicly entertained signing him. His strong arm and athletic ability fit the build of a quarterback who can take deep shots and extend plays for a subpar offensive line. Pete Carroll has publicly said he thinks Kaepernick is a starter in this league, and if Seattle is suddenly in the market for a said starter, they will be out of excuses for not signing him.
4. Trade for Jacoby Brissett
Remember that rumor a few years ago that reported the Seahawks offered a second-round pick for then Colts backup Jacoby Brissett? While that was largely disproven, the Seahawks having an interest in Brissett isn't that surprising. He's mobile, familiar with a run-heavy/play action passing attack, and takes care of the football.
Brisset is the ideal game manager who could effectively distribute the ball to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Protecting the football and making plays with your legs are two traits that have to be appealing as a Wilson bandaid. Brissett was replaced this offseason by Phillip Rivers and the Colts doubled down by selecting quarterback Jacob Eason in the fourth round. He could be available in a trade, but he would earn $6 million if traded. Acquiring Brissett for anything more than a fourth-round pick would be problematic.
5. Trade for Josh Rosen
This is similar to the idea of starting Anthony Gordon, though Rosen has more experience than Gordon. But the former first-round pick has been nothing short of a bust and would be playing for his third team in his first three seasons for a reason. In his 16 career starts, Rosen has posted a 3-13 record while completing just 54.8 percent of his passes and throwing seven more interceptions (19) than touchdowns (12).
Rosen doesn't move all that well. He isn't smart with the football. And two franchises have already given up on him. He is going to be cheap and there is still some interesting tools from which to build something, but Rosen is the antithesis of what Carroll wants from his quarterback, so this isn't an appealing option.
The quarterback market is bare. The Seahawks may have missed a huge opportunity by not selecting a quarterback in the draft or spending a little money on Dalton, Newton, Winston, or Marcus Marriota. If pressed, I'd rank these options as:
1. Kaepernick
2. Brissett
3. Gordon.
4. Smith
5. Rosen
Thankfully, there are no indicators that Wilson is planning on sitting out this season and if he can avoid injury or illness, this discussion will be a moot point. But it's worth considering these types of scenarios with players weighing whether or not they would be willing to play a contact sport during a global health crisis.
