Why Seahawks Should Extend RB Chris Carson
The NFL is currently in the midst of an analytics revolution almost 20 years after MLB made analytics more mainstream when the book "Moneyball" moved the phrase "sabermetrics" into the lexicon of average sports fans. The Seahawks, like every other NFL team, are trying to implement much of what the data has told them is important.
However, the problem with analytics in sports is that it attempts to remove any nuance from the conversation. The world is becoming more data-driven and viewed as more black and white than ever before, producing empty platitudes or overtaking real conversations about what matters in the world of team building.
Nowhere in the game of football is this more evident than the philosophy sweeping NFL circles that is simply boiled down to the statement "running backs don't matter."
Now, let's get something correct right from the get-go: that is an extremely dumbed down argument of what is actually being said. There are certainly times where running the football is important and even hardcore analytically minded pundits will admit that running the ball in the red zone is critical.
So running the football has value, but most running backs aren't worth investing in long-term. After all, the Seahawks invested a seventh round pick in Chris Carson and a first round pick in Rashaad Penny and it is inarguable that Carson is the better player.
But let's take a step back and acknowledge a few things here. The running back position is important, at least if you have a player who is above the "replacement" level runners.
And once again, you need not look any further than the Seahawks in 2019 as evidence. Carson was churning out yards and Penny was in the midst of a breakout when both suffered serious injuries, knocking them out for the rest of the season.
By the standard of "running backs don't matter," the next man up, Travis Homer, should have had no problem filling in for the injured Carson and Penny, right? Well, in his first attempt against the 49ers, aided by Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, Seattle managed 125 yards on 30 attempts, a 4.2 yards per carry average.
Pretty good right? Well, actually, it was the lowest yards per carry average for Seattle since Week 7 and was tied for the fifth lowest of the season. The Seahawks lost that game. The following week in the wild card round, Seattle rushed for just 64 yards on 26 attempts, a 2.6 yards per carry average. And in the final game of the season in Green Bay, Seattle rushed for 110 yards on 24 carries, a 4.6 yards per carry average.
However, considering that Wilson accounted for 64 yards on seven attempts, the running backs in Seattle actually ran for 46 yards on 17 attempts, a paltry 2.7 yards per carry average. There is no question and no debate that the run game got significantly worse when Carson and Penny went down.
Which brings me to my point: the Seahawks should be placing a high priority on locking up their star running back, with a caveat. Even I, a massive fan of the running back position, have to admit there are limits to what you can pay the position. Would I give Carson the $16 million a year that Carolina just gave to their star running back Christian McCaffery? No. Will the Seahawks have to? Also, no.
In fact, the biggest knock against Carson is also one of the reasons you'll be able to land him for below market value. Carson has the label of being "injury-prone," which can be a death knell to a free agent running back.
Carson has missed 15 regular-season games in three seasons, but he has missed just three games combined the past two seasons. In addition, it is worth noting that there is a difference between a player constantly missing games with hamstring strains and groin pulls and one who has missed games with a broken ankle and cracked hip. Carson isn't missing games like C.J. Prosise, which should be noted.
But if Carson should be re-signed, what is the right price to pay for him? Mark Ingram signed a three-year, $15 million deal with the Ravens last off-season. Ingram is older but more durable and had a longer track record of success than Carson. The Chargers just gave Austin Eckler a four-year deal worth $24.5 million, or just over $6 million AAV.
Melvin Gordon, a Pro Bowler at the position, received a two-year deal worth $16 million. These three comps would seem to indicate a deal for Carson somewhere in the 3-4 years range worth between $20-$30 million range. Is that feasible?
Let's consider that the Seahawks have roughly $80 million in cap space next season (based off a $215 million cap projection). They have three major free agents in addition to Carson. They are Quinton Dunbar, Shaquill Griffin, and Bradley McDougald. Seattle will have enough to sign all four players if they so choose.
But what is Carson actually worth? Last season, Carson accounted for 1,496 yards of out of nearly 6,000 total yards on offense. This comes out to just a shade under 25 percent of the total offensive prodcution. He also scored nine touchdowns, accounting for 13 percent of the points scored on the season.
Those aren't numbers that should be ignored and aren't numbers that are easily replaced. Carson is one of the best running backs in the league and even when taking his injury history into account, paying him an average of $8 million would account for just 3.7 percent of the salary cap for a player responsible for a fourth of the yards gained and an eighth of the points scored for Seattle.
If Carson can stay relatively healthy and productive in 2020, a four-year extension worth $25-$32 million is not only a reasonable expectation for Carson but a fine bargain for the Seahawks.
If you want to run the football as much as the Seahawks do, the running back position is more valuable to you than he is anywhere else. And if Seahawks fans think finding a back to replace top-shelf talent is easy, just remember the years after Marshawn Lynch left and what the run game looked like in January.
Chris Carson is a great running back and a critical member of the Seahawks and there is nothing wrong with sinking less than 4 percent of the salary cap into a Top 10 running back to keep him in town for the rest of his prime.
