Analysis: Best Case Playoff Scenarios For Seahawks in Week 15
There's no sugarcoating it. While coach Pete Carroll accurately stated that they "aren't dead yet," if the Seahawks want to remain on playoff life support for another week, they must defeat the Rams at SoFi Stadium in Sunday's Week 15 rematch.
Losing to their division rivals wouldn't mathematically eliminate the Seahawks, but per Five Thirty Eight, their playoff chances would plummet to 0.3 percent by default without even considering what happens in other games. In the event the Saints, Washington Football Team, Vikings, and 49ers all won their respective games, those odds would drop even further to less than 0.1 percent. Even if all four of those teams lose, their odds sit at 0.5 percent.
As Carroll loves to quote regularly in press conferences, that's entering Lloyd Christmas and Dumb and Dumber territory.
However, if Seattle can beat Los Angeles on Sunday, a victory would boost postseason odds to 10 percent. While those still aren't great odds by any means, at 6-8 overall, the team would be in a much better position with three games left on the schedule and depending how other games play out, that number could improve even more.
Assuming they take care of their own business against the Rams, what would be the best case scenario for the Seahawks in Week 15? Using projections from Five Thirty Eight, here's a breakdown of what would be a picture perfect weekend for Carroll's squad and how each result would impact the team's playoff probability leverage.
1. Cowboys defeat Giants
Okay, in the scheme of things, this result wouldn't do anything to help the Seahawks chances of earning a postseason spot and the Giants aren't really a threat to make a run anyway But it would eliminate another team from the playoff discussion entirely, which would be welcome news for all of the teams vying for the final two wild card spots.
Playoff probability leverage: 0%
2. Bills defeat Panthers
After starting the season 3-0, Carolina has been in a tailspin losing eight of its past 10 games. Desperate after losing back-to-back games, the Bills can stay in the mix for an AFC East title and also put the Panthers on the brink of elimination with a bounce back victory, so this would be another outcome that simply favors the other remaining contenders more than anything.
Playoff probability leverage: 0%
3. Falcons defeat 49ers
While this outcome wouldn't impact Seattle's playoff odds at all in Week 15, this would be the kind of demoralizing loss that could come back to bite San Francisco at the end of the season. Dropping to 7-7, the 49ers would only have to lose one more game to finish 9-8, and if the Seahawks win out, they would have the same record and earn a playoff spot via tiebreaker after sweeping the season series against their rivals.
Playoff probability leverage: 0%
4. Eagles defeat Washington Football Team
Another game with more long-term ramifications than short-term ones, Seattle should be rooting for Philadelphia to win even though such a result would push them to 7-7 on the season and into a wild card spot. The reason why? Washington beat the Seahawks in Week 12 on Monday Night Football and holds the tiebreaker. Losing this one would drop them to 6-8 and put them in a perilous position with three games remaining. Regardless, either team winning wouldn't alter the Seahawks overall playoff odds at all in the present, but this is another game that could matter a whole lot more in a few weeks.
Playoff probability leverage: 0%
5. Buccaneers defeat Saints
This is the first game that presents a bit of a leverage scenario for the Seahawks. Since they lost to the Saints back in Week 7, they would lose the tiebreaker if both teams finish with identical records. If New Orleans upsets Tampa Bay, Seattle's playoff chances drop to just seven percent. On the other hand, losing to the defending champs would give Seattle a slight bump up to 11 percent. While Seahawk fans won't like the idea of cheering for Tom Brady, they absolutely should be in this instance.
Playoff probability leverage: 4%
6. Bears defeat Vikings
In terms of likelihood, hoping for Chicago to beat Minnesota probably falls under the category of wishful thinking. But the Vikings have choked away a few wins against bad teams this year, including losing to the Lions, so it's not impossible they could do it again against another division rival. Like Washington and New Orleans, Minnesota beat Seattle and holds the tiebreaker. As a result, if the Vikings win this game, the Seahawks' playoff odds fall to nine percent. With a loss? That number jumps up to 15 percent. In other words, there's not another game on the docket this weekend that could potentially help or hurt Seattle's playoff hopes more than this one.
Playoff probability leverage: 6%
