Capitalizing on Market, Seahawks Make Shrewd Move Re-Upping Chris Carson

When the Seahawks bowed out of the postseason with a disappointing 30-20 loss to the Rams in the wild card round, all signs suggested Chris Carson had played in his final game for the team.

After all, Seattle entered the offseason with limited salary cap space, more than 20 unrestricted free agents set to test the market, and a number of key positions to fill. On the priority list, running back paled in importance compared to finding upgrades at left guard and center on the offensive line along with pursuing pass rushers and cornerbacks defensively.

Carson also carries with him a lengthy injury history dating back to high school. While starring at Parkview High School in Lilburn, Georgia, he tore his ACL, which cost him a shot at playing for the Georgia Bulldogs. He battled ankle and thumb injuries at Oklahoma State and after missing most of his rookie season in Seattle with a broken ankle, he has missed seven games over the past three years due to a cracked hip and a foot sprain.

Considering Seattle's roster needs, Carson's durability red flags, and the veteran's standing as one of the top backs set to test free agency, the odds of him coming back in 2021 seemed slim.

However, while paying running backs on a second contract has proven to be a slippery slope, a depressed market created by a lowered salary cap league-wide helped open the door for Carson to fit into the Seahawks tight budget. Without any other teams presenting superior offers, general manager John Schneider and cap guru Matt Thomas worked swiftly to take advantage of the situation, re-signing the bulldozing back to a two-year deal worth up to $14.6 million.

Initially, fans who subscribe to the idea teams shouldn't overpay for veteran running backs weren't keen on the deal, especially considering the team was already up against the cap with minimal spending room.

But combing through the contract details more closely at actual payout terms, Seattle struck a bargain retaining one of the NFL's most productive ball carriers. In 2021, Carson will earn $1 million in guaranteed money and can make up to an additional $1.4 million in incentives, carrying a cap hit of just $2.5 million. This accounts for less than 1.5 percent of the team's current cap.

In 2022, Carson's cap hit jumps up to $6.425 million due to a base salary of $4.5 million along with a prorated bonus of $1.5 million. Still, that only accounts for 3.2 percent of the team's cap and if he has a strong 2021 season, that's an affordable rate for a top-10 running back of his caliber. If he struggles with injuries again or isn't as effective as prior seasons, the team can cut him and absorb a $3 million dead cap hit.

By adding a third "void" year - something Schneider and Thomas hadn't done previously on a contract - the Seahawks were able to push some of Carson's cap hit to 2023, creating financial flexibility for the present. They will have to pay a small dead cap charge that year, but with the NFL's new television deal kicking in and the cap expected to skyrocket as a result, that shouldn't be a concern for the organization.

Ultimately, the Seahawks were able to re-sign Carson at under $6 million per year, which currently would rank 15th among NFL running backs. Even when accounting for his injury track record, such a cost represents fantastic value when considering he is one of only three running backs with 3,000-plus rushing yards, 75 or more receptions, and 25 or more combined touchdowns since 2018.

From Carson's perspective, while he certainly would have made more money with the pandemic causing the salary cap to plummet, he's still set to earn $5.5 million in guaranteed money through the life of the contract and made out well given circumstances. Ready to carry the load for Seattle once again, as long as he can stay healthy, he will have the opportunity to eclipse $7 million per year, which would put him in the top 10 among running backs.

If there's a downside to the decision to bring back Carson, the move confirms the Seahawks lack of confidence in former first rounder Rashaad Penny's ability to emerge as a feature back. Injuries have also been a problem for the ex-San Diego State star, who has missed 21 games in three seasons and has yet to hit 1,000 rushing yards for his career.

Entering the last year of his rookie deal, Penny will make north of $3 million while once again being utilized as a complimentary back. That's not an ideal development and would cement his status as a first-round bust for Schneider and the front office.

But at the end of the day, smart teams don't compound errors. If the Seahawks have come to the realization Penny isn't a bell cow back as they envisioned he would be when they drafted him, there's no point in continuing to force the issue. Carson has proven to be one of the most productive backs in the sport and a key cog in the team's offensive identity over the past three years, so paying him at a $5.5 million per year rate is an appropriate move for both the team and player.