Geno Smith & Coach Dave Canales: Package Move From Seahawks to Bucs?
Following a series of interviews with multiple teams, the Seahawks lost a key assistant with quarterback coach Dave Canales announcing his departure to become offensive coordinator for the Buccaneers on Wednesday.
Interestingly, Canales will be joining a Tampa Bay squad now facing major questions at quarterback after Tom Brady recently announced retirement... again. With this exit seemingly a legitimate one after he quickly changed his mind last spring and fellow veteran Blaine Gabbert also unsigned, the team currently has only former second-round pick Kyle Trask on the roster at the position.
Naturally, this has led to rampant speculation about the Buccaneers making a potential run at signing impending free agent Geno Smith, who garnered Pro Bowl honors and won Comeback Player of the Year last season. Under the tutelage of Canales, who also enjoyed great success previously coaching Russell Wilson, the veteran signal-caller threw 30 touchdown passes and led the NFL with a 69.8-percent completion rate while setting a new single-season franchise passing yards record.
Considering Smith has a strong relationship with Canales, it would make sense for Tampa Bay to look into the possibility while seeking a successor for Brady. But before Seattle fans start to give themselves panic attacks, the chances of such an arrangement actually happening seems slim to none for multiple reasons.
For one, all signs point to the Seahawks doing whatever needs to be done to ensure Smith returns in 2023, as Carroll and general manager John Schneider have both publicly stated they want to re-sign him. Right now, the two sides are in the midst of negotiating a new contract and while participating in the Pro Bowl games two weeks ago, the veteran signal caller said talks were "looking very good."
Even if Seattle isn't able to strike a multi-year agreement with Smith before the start of the new league year on March 15, Schneider could place a non-exclusive franchise tag on him at a fully-guaranteed value of $34.2 million to extend the negotiation window and prevent him from hitting the market. The organization reportedly would have no issue making that move if necessary.
Secondly, the Buccaneers aren't exactly plum with cap space to add another expensive quarterback contract to the books. Per OverTheCap.com, they currently are $55 million in the red and will need to orchestrate a series of contract extensions, restructures, and cuts to simply draw even, let alone open up enough space to absorb Smith's contract, which likely will exceed $30 million per year.
Of course, as New Orleans proves on an annual basis, the salary cap can always be manipulated to create additional space and if Tampa Bay went all in trying to land Smith, moves could be made to allow the organization to do so. But with Seattle holding all the cards with the franchise tag available, it seems unlikely, if improbable, he reunites with Canales back in his home state of Florida.
While Smith joining the Buccaneers has a near-zero percent chance of coming to fruition, Canales could have his eyes on another former pupil who he coached with the Seahawks last season in Drew Lock. The ex-Missouri star will also be a free agent in March and won't command near as much money as Smith, making him a far better fit financially for the cap-strapped franchise.
On an affordable one-year prove it deal, after working with Canales all of last season, the 26-year old Lock would have a strong chance to earn a starting spot in 2023 competing against Trask and/or a rookie quarterback. Such an opportunity wouldn't be presented staying in Seattle behind Smith and there may not be a better shot for him to start anywhere else in the league with most teams already having a proven starter or set to make a run for Aaron Rodgers or Derek Carr.
With the Buccaneers having a stacked receiving corps headlined by Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Lock would have the personnel around him to potentially flourish after a failed stint as a starter with the Broncos to open his career. Teaming back up with Canales, who likely will run a similar offense to the one Shane Waldron deployed with the Seahawks, would set him up to succeed by hitting the ground running.
This early in the offseason, it remains unclear what Tampa Bay ultimately will do at quarterback entering the post-Brady era and a lot of salary cap juggling will need to happen first regardless of what the front office decides to do. But acquiring Smith doesn't seem like a realistic option at all, as Seattle isn't going to simply let him walk after performing as a top-10 quarterback in 2022 and trading for him isn't on the table either.
Instead, if Canales prioritizes familiarity under center and wants to hitch a ride to a quarterback he has previously coached with the Seahawks, Lock should be viewed as the top candidate to compete for Brady's former stead.
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