Seahawks vs. Rams: Geno Smith to Reveal 'Situational Showcase' of Improvements
RENTON, Wash. - Led by a resurgent Geno Smith under center and a bevy of talented skill players at receiver, tight end, and running back, the Seattle Seahawks surprised many by sneaking into the playoffs last season in large part due to a top-10 scoring offense.
Ranking fourth in the NFL, Smith finished with 30 touchdown passes, earning himself Comeback Player of the Year honors. On the outside, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett each eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards, while rookie running back Ken Walker III came up just short in Offensive Rookie of the Year balloting with a 1,000 yard campaign, spearheading one of the league's most explosive attacks.
But as good as the Seahawks were in 2022 at putting points on the board via big plays, including Smith's league-high 14 touchdown passes that traveled at least 20 yards, they struggled mightily as an offense executing in key situations on third down and in the red zone. Finishing in the bottom third of the NFL in both categories, they ranked 20th in third down conversion rate (38.3 percent) and a dreadful 27th in red zone touchdown rate (48.3 percent), leaving plenty of points off the board inside the 20.
Understandably, coach Pete Carroll and his staff made shoring up these two important areas a top priority for Seattle this offseason. With the regular season set to tip off against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, though time will tell whether or not results from the practice field translate to game day, Smith feels confident he and the offense will be far better extending and finishing drives.
"That was a major emphasis for us, like third downs, red zone, being better in those specific areas. And so we got a bunch of reps at that," Smith told reporters prior to Thursday's practice. "Pete [Carroll] put us in competition over and over, third down competition, red zone competition, a lot of back and forth between the offense and the defense. We'll be able to see throughout the season if we actually got better, but I think we did."
While not all of the blame falls on his shoulders and others contributed to the woes, as the orchestrator of the offense, Smith factored into the Seahawks struggles on third down as well as in the red zone last season.
Accuracy-wise, Smith remained borderline elite on third downs, connecting on 65.6 percent of his pass attempts and ranking seventh among quarterbacks. But according to data from RBSDM.com, his success rate dipped to 38.8 percent on those money downs, which ranked 23rd out of 32 qualified signal callers. His EPA per play also took a nose dive to 17th with players such as Jacoby Brissett and Kenny Pickett ahead of him.
In part due to factors out of Smith's control, including injuries to receiver Marquise Goodwin and a banged up offensive line that struggled to open up run lanes on early downs or keep him upright, these issues became a far bigger issue in the second half of the season. The veteran quarterback ranked 30th in success rate, 28th in EPA per play, and barely completed 60 percent of his passes in the final eight games.
Considering those clear struggles from a year ago, what gives Smith faith that the Seahawks will be far better sustaining drives? For one, a new weapon on the outside in first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba complementing DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and the rest of the team's offensive arsenal as a savvy slot receiver should be a "tremendous factor" moving the chains getting open and creating after the catch.
“He’s another guy who can win one-on-ones. He’s got a great skill set. We’ve got three dynamic receivers, three dynamic tight ends, running backs who run the ball and catch out of the backfield, and quarterbacks who are mobile and who can throw and pass. We’ve got to use all of those things in order to help us succeed on third down. Jaxon brings so much to the table and we look forward to seeing what he does out there.”
Additionally, Seattle hopes to send out a much improved offensive line. Tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas, who started 16 regular season games together as rookie in 2022, will be a year older and wiser, which should mean significant growth in their respective games. In the interior, Evan Brown should be an upgrade over retired Austin Blythe both as a run blocker and pass protector and guard Phil Haynes will look to build off encouraging play in a rotational role a year ago as a full-time starter.
While Geno Smith's accuracy on third down remained among the NFL's best, he was uncharacteristically off target in the red zone, barely eclipsing 50 percent completion rate.
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Along with better protection and hopefully more favorable third downs due to better effectiveness running the ball on early downs, Smith hopes to demonstrate notable improvements of his own scanning the field to make the right read, unloading the football to open targets in a timely manner, and letting his playmakers do damage with the ball in their hands.
As for the red zone, Smith will have to be far sharper than he was inside the opposing 20-yard line a year ago. Throwing in tighter windows due to condensed space, per Pro Football Reference, he completed just 52.8 percent of his red zone pass attempts, ranking 22nd among qualified quarterbacks.
But on the bright side, Smith threw 17 touchdowns without any interceptions, making him one of only three quarterbacks along with Tom Brady and Tua Tagovailoa with at least 15 red zone scoring tosses and no picks. Adding Smith-Njigba to the mix to go with Metcalf, Lockett, and an underrated tight end group with capable receiving threats such as Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson, his red zone productivity should only improve with the supporting cast around him.
"In the red zone, the field shortens, and you have to be quicker with your decision-making as a quarterback," Smith said. "You’ve got to be accurate and know where you’re going with the ball and get it out on time and with precision."
When it comes to clear areas of improvement in the red zone, the Seahawks will be banking on their fortified offensive line and the arrival of powerful rookie back Zach Charbonnet to increase their efficiency punctuating touchdown drives, especially inside the 10-yard line. Last year, Walker rushed for just seven yards on 16 carries and scored only two touchdowns from 10 yards or closer.
Inside the five, to the vexation of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, Seattle struggled even more, as Walker netted negative three yards on nine carries with a single touchdown, the only rushing score the team had from five yards or closer all season long. From the play caller's perspective, eliminating negative plays that take the offense off schedule and maintaining balance between the run and pass will be crucial to turning field goals into touchdowns.
"It was kind of a strange thing because in the run game, we had a couple where Ken did a nice job on some runs at the 10, 11, 12-yard line, which typically you're not expecting that explosive play," Waldron said, citing a red zone touchdown run by Walker in a win over the Giants. "Being more consistent and not taking those negative plays once you get down in the low red zone I think will be critical. It all starts with the communication, making sure our targets are right and making sure we're giving the back the best chance."
As is always the case in the season opener, the Seahawks don't necessarily know what to expect from the Rams, who will be coming to town with a much different roster than the one that won the Super Bowl two years ago. Though much of the coaching staff remains intact, uncertainty about what to expect has been taken up a notch or two preparing for a familiar opponent.
With that said, Smith's approach isn't any different than it would be in a typical Week 1 matchup, bracing for whatever McVay and defensive coordinator Raheem Morris throw at him. Prepared to execute against what he's seen on film or adapt as necessary early, he's looking forward to facilitating the offense, putting his playmakers in position to succeed, and demonstrating major strides in the situational aspect of the game.
"When I’m looking at film, obviously we have preseason tape on them and things from last year, you kind of just prepare for things you’ve seen, and expect anything. They could call any defense they want, put anybody at any position, and it’s our job to counter that. I’m just preparing for everything and if they give us what we’ve seen on tape, then we’ll be ready for it. If it’s something different and we have to adjust, then we will.”
