Igniting Seattle Seahawks' Vertical Passing Game Next Step For Geno Smith, Offense
Through five weeks of the NFL season, Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks have picked up where they left off a year ago boasting a top-10 offense, averaging north of 27 points per game for a sixth overall ranking out of 32 teams.
Staying poised and efficient under center, Smith has completed nearly 70 percent of his passes so far with just one interception, hooking up on at least eight pass attempts to five different players. Continuing to be key cogs in the machine, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have each scored a pair of touchdowns in the air, while the tight end trio of Noah Fant, Will Dissly, and Colby Parkinson are once again on pace to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards as a group.
But while there have been some parallels to 2022, Seattle hasn't put points on the board in the same fashion, demonstrating similar potency with a different blueprint. After Smith put the offense on his trusty right sidearm a year ago leading one of the most prolific passing attacks in the NFL to win Comeback Player of the Year, the team hasn't been winning with downfield explosives, instead leaning more heavily on the ground and quick passing games to finish drives.
Racing out to a 3-1 start, the Seahawks have taken a massive step forward executing in short yardage situations in the red zone. Benefiting from an improved offensive line that has continued to exceed expectations despite functioning like a Rolodex with constant shuffling in the lineup due to injuries, Walker III has already scored four rushing touchdowns inside the opposing five-yard line after only scoring one such touchdown as a rookie last season.
Although he has only completed 50 percent of his red zone throws, Smith has been money inside the opposing 10-yard line, stacking up favorably against the league's biggest stars at the position. Even playing in one less game than the players ahead of him, he ranks fifth overall with five touchdown passes in such situations, turning all five of his completions on seven attempts into six points.
Comparatively speaking, it's been quite the contrast for the Seahawks, who relied heavily on big plays through the air to fuel their offense last season and finished near the bottom of the league in red zone efficiency. While these improvements are welcomed and should make the offense tougher to stop in the long run, however, rediscovering the explosive element remains crucial to the team achieving their goals of making a deep playoff run.
Turning heads in his first season as a starter in Seattle, Smith led all quarterbacks with 14 passing touchdowns traveling at least 20 yards through the air in 2022. Mastering the art of the deep ball in Russell Wilson's former stead, per Pro Football Focus, he finished first in big time throws (31), second in completion rate (47.6 percent), and second in passer rating (120.2) on such throws, torching opponents while making the most of his 68 deep ball attempts.
On the receiving end, the trio of Metcalf, Lockett, and Marquise Goodwin struck fear in opposing secondaries. Metcalf and Lockett each ranked in the top 20 in the NFL in 20-plus yard receptions, finishing with 23 and 19 respectively. Taking the top off defenses on a consistent basis, Lockett finished third in the league with six receiving touchdowns traveling 20 or more yards, while Metcalf and Goodwin each finished in the top 20 with three apiece.
One of the premier deep ball throwers in the NFL a year ago, Smith hasn't attempted near as many 20-plus yard attempts for the Seahawks in 2023 and hasn't been overly effective with those opportunities.
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Fast forwarding to the present, even with returning stars Metcalf and Lockett joining forces with first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Smith hasn't been able to come close to replicating such success attacking downfield in the first four games.
Landing on the opposite end of the spectrum in comparison to his breakout campaign, Smith has only completed four passes traveling 20-plus yards for a dismal 28.6 percent completion rate, which ranks 19th out of 21 qualified quarterbacks. None of those attempts have resulted in a touchdown and according to PFF's charting, he has only connected on three big time throws while posting a mediocre 65.5 passer rating.
With Smith being near the bottom of the league in deep completions, his stable of receivers haven't been in the same zip code production-wise. While Metcalf has made two grabs of 20 or more yards, Lockett and Smith-Njigba have been shutout through five games, with Fant and Walker being the only other players on the team who have hauled in a deep ball thus far.
But while it is always easy to point the finger at the quarterback and Smith would take the sword for some missed throws in the early stages of the season, context matters and circumstances outside of his control have contributed to the statistical regression.
For one, losing starting tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas to injuries in the season opener created significant schematic obstacles for offensive coordinator Shane Waldron to work around. Even with backups Stone Forsythe and Jake Curhan performing admirably in their absence, the play caller has been hesitant to dial up near as many deep balls as a year ago looking out for the health of his quarterback.
This issue only became further magnified in the past several weeks as offensive linemen continued to drop like flies. For most of the second half of the Seahawks 24-3 win over the Giants on Monday Night Football in Week 4, Evan Brown was the only projected starter on the field and he played the entire second half at left guard with rookie Olu Oluwatimi checking in at center.
Given all of the turnover and musical chairs being played in the trenches, it shouldn't come as a surprise Smith ranks dead last among qualified signal callers with only 14 pass attempts traveling 20 or more yards.
Secondly, Seattle's improved run game has taken some of the pressure off of Smith and the receiving corps to constantly try to elevate the offense with big plays as they did last season. Walker already has found the end zone five times and rushed for 283 yards as the team's workhorse back, while rookie Zach Charbonnet has made an immediate impact in a complementary role powering his way to 104 yards and a healthy five yards per carry average.
With all things considered, the fact the Seahawks have managed to score as many points as they have in the first four games with all of the injuries and uncertainty along the offensive line should be applauded. It's not as if Smith's play has fallen off a cliff or anything either, as he has still been a top-12 quarterback in many important metrics, including completion rate and passer rating.
In the short-term, Smith's performance should also improve by default with Cross, Phil Haynes, and Damien Lewis all closing in on their respective returns, with all three potentially available against Cincinnati this weekend. Improved offensive line play will open up the playbook for Waldron, hopefully allowing more opportunities for shot plays downfield as Seattle's offense heading towards the midway point of the season, particularly off play action with a quality run game to keep defenses honest.
But thinking big picture, until the Seahawks find a way to get the most out of Metcalf and Lockett stressing defenses by stretching the field and Smith-Njigba finds his footing as a dynamic third target, it's hard to envision them stacking up with the 49ers, Eagles, or even the Cowboys as a legitimate contender in the NFC. To fulfill their potential, they need to maximize on the talent they have at the skill positions and start generating some fireworks to take the offense to the next level.
