Seahawks Draft: What’s 'Safest' Option at Pick No. 5?
With the 2023 NFL Draft only 25 days away, the Seattle Seahawks continue to put finishing touches on the pre-draft evaluation process by visiting college pro days and bringing in prospects for top-30 visits.
Holding a top-five pick for the first time in the Pete Carroll/John Schneider era along with four picks in the top 52 selections, this may be one of the most important drafts in franchise history. Armed with immense draft capital, Seattle has a chance to push back into championship contention in quick order if it can capitalize on the opportunity.
Selecting fifth overall thanks to a pick acquired from the Broncos in last March's blockbuster Russell Wilson trade, the Seahawks have been linked to numerous prospects with a rare top-five draft choice over the past few months. This includes quarterback, where Schneider and Carroll have spent extensive time digging in on each of the top four prospects, including Florida's Anthony Richardson.
Historically speaking, what position would be the safest bet for Schneider and company? Revisiting each of the past 13 drafts dating back to 2010, I broke down numerous position groups investigating the number of players drafted, the "hit rate" based on awards, production, and overall impact, and best/worst prospects selected searching for that answer.
Quarterback
Number of Players Drafted: 18
Hit Rate: 35 percent (Tua Tagovailoa omitted)
Best Pick: Joe Burrow
Worst Pick: Sam Darnold
Every team wants an elite quarterback and given the importance of the position, there's a reason why signal callers hear their name called more often in the top five than any other position. But that number also is the largest for another reason, as the hit rate is well below 50 percent and a few teams have found themselves back in the hunt for a quarterback only a few years after drafting one.
On the plus side, the Bengals transformed from a cellar dweller into a perennial contender in the AFC by drafting Burrow first overall in 2019. Cam Newton also had a similar impact on the Panthers, helping them reach a Super Bowl and winning NFL MVP honors in 2015, while Trevor Lawrence looks ready to take a such a step with the Jaguars in coming seasons. When teams hit on quarterbacks early in the draft, they tend to be franchise altering additions.
But away from those rare success stories, more teams have swung and missed on quarterbacks in the top five. Most recently, Zach Wilson has already flamed out for the Jets, who also missed on Sam Darnold only two years earlier. Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston didn't earn second contracts with the Titans and Buccaneers respectively and now find themselves as backups in the league. The same can be said for former Bears top five pick Mitch Trubisky, who now sits behind Kenny Pickett in Pittsburgh.
Even a handful of quarterbacks such as Carson Wentz, Blake Bortles, and Robert Griffin III who found brief success couldn't sustain it due to inconsistent play and/or injuries, bouncing around with multiple teams. While Wentz remains in the league, the other two haven't played any snaps since 2019 and have moved on from football. It's safe to say quarterback is the riskiest roll of the dice this early in the draft, but Seattle does have a bit more flexibility to properly develop one behind veteran starter Geno Smith before throwing the player into the fire.
Defensive Tackle
Number of Players Drafted: 4
Hit Rate: 100 percent
Best Pick: Ndamukong Suh
Worst Pick: Marcell Dareus
Unlike quarterbacks, defensive tackles have been automatic as top-five picks over the previous 13 years. The best of the bunch, Suh immediately became a dominant disruptor in the middle of the Lions defensive line, earning five All-Pro nods in his first seven seasons and positioning himself to be a possible Hall of Famer after a long, successful career with 71.5 sacks and 214 quarterback hits from the interior. Gerald McCoy also enjoyed a stellar career earning three All-Pro selections and six Pro Bowl nods in an 11-year career with three teams.
The most recent defensive tackle selected in the top five, Quinnen Williams of the Jets, has ascended to superstar status after four seasons. In 2022, he earned First-Team All-Pro recognition with a career-best 12.0 sacks and two forced fumbles. Only 25 years old, his best football may yet still be in front of him. Evan Dareus, whose career sputtered after a strong start in Buffalo, still made two Pro Bowls and earned All-Pro honors once while posting 37.5 sacks.
Keeping that track record in consideration, despite red flags waiving everywhere after being arrested in March and struggling during his pro day workout, Georgia's Jalen Carter could very much remain in play for the Seahawks.
Defensive End/EDGE
Number of Players Drafted: 16
Hit Rate: 58 percent (Chase Young, Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Travon Walker omitted)
Best Pick: Von Miller
Worst Pick: Dion Jordan
Teetering closer to quarterbacks than defensive tackles in terms of success rates, pass rushers have also been difficult to gauge coming into the NFL. On one hand, first ballot Hall of Famer-caliber talents such as Miller, Khalil Mack, and Myles Garrett have been home run selections early and instantly started wreaking havoc on opposing quarterbacks. Others such as Nick Bosa, who captured 2022 NFL Defensive Player of the Year honors, may soon be in that territory as well, while the jury remains out on several players such as Hutchinson and Walker after only one season.
But there have also been plenty of misses pursuing pass rushers with top five picks, headlined by Jordan's suspension-riddled career that ended with just 13.5 sacks. While still in the league, Solomon Thomas never became the game wreaker the 49ers envisioned he would become coming out of Stanford and he's spent time with three teams, while Clelin Ferrell has produced only 10.0 sacks in four seasons and lost his starting job the past two years with the Raiders.
Much like quarterbacks, when teams connect on pass rushers early in the draft, they typically strike gold and find elite franchise-changing talents. Many believe Alabama's Will Anderson Jr. will fit that category. But based on extensive evidence, there's also a strong likelihood that the player won't live up to the hype at the next level and there doesn't seem to be as much of a correlation between college production rushing the passer and doing the same in the league, so proceed with caution.
Cornerback
Number of Players Drafted: 6
Hit Rate: 80 percent (Derek Stingley Jr. omitted)
Best Pick: Jalen Ramsey (2016)
Worst Pick: Jeff Okudah (2020)
Another position that has enjoyed a very high success rate in the top five, teams have fared extremely well picking cornerbacks early over the past 13 years.
Last year, the Jets landed an immediate superstar in Sauce Gardner fourth overall, as the ex-Cincinnati standout won NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year honors and also earned First-Team All-Pro recognition as a rookie. Now joining the Dolphins, Ramsey has been one of the best shutdown corners in the league for nearly a decade with three First-Team All-Pro nods on his resume, while Patrick Peterson remains in the league and has three of his own All-Pro honors in a long, heralded career.
Time will tell if Stingley can stack up with Gardner in Houston, as injuries hindered his rookie year a bit. But aside from Okudah, who has dealt with injuries and cooled off after a hot start to the 2022 season, teams have hit the jackpot in the few instances where corners have been selected in the first five picks. That recent trend may lead to more teams considering players at that position early in the future, though the Seahawks don't appear to be in need of one at the moment.
Offensive Tackle
Number of Players Drafted: 7
Hit Rate: 33 percent (Andrew Thomas omitted)
Best Pick: Trent Williams (2010)
Worst Pick: Luke Joeckel (2013)
Tasked with trying to slow down pass rushers and protect opposing quarterbacks, tackles carry one of the most challenging, difficult jobs in all of football. For that reason, it shouldn't be a surprise that teams have struck out more often than not when selecting a player at the position early.
One of the best to ever play the position, Williams' greatness has been more evident since relocating to San Francisco, where he has been a First-Team All-Pro each of the past two seasons and made three straight Pro Bowls. A cornerstone of two Super Bowl teams, Lane Johnson has also had a borderline Hall of Fame caliber career so far in Philadelphia, earning three All-Pro nods and six Pro Bowl selections in 10 seasons.
With Williams and Johnson as exceptions to the rule, however, teams haven't gotten good bang for their buck picking tackles early. While Eric Fisher made two Pro Bowls in Kansas City, he never emerged as a top-tier tackle and that's not good enough as the No. 1 overall pick. Greg Robinson started 70 games over six seasons with three teams, but he surrendered 27 sacks and 181 quarterback pressures. Joeckel was even worse, sliding into guard after two seasons and washing out of the league after just five years in the league.
If you're looking for a blind side protector in the top five picks, buyer beware. Thankfully, the Seahawks aren't in that position after nailing picks on Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas last spring.
Other Positions
Despite continuing to be devalued league-wide, four running backs have been selected in the first five picks since 2010 with a 50 percent hit rate, as Ezekiel Elliott has been the cream of the crop and Trent Richardson proved to be one of the biggest draft busts at the position... Receivers have also been hit and miss dating back to 2010 with a 50 percent hit rate, with clear stars in A.J. Green and Jamarr Chase headlining the group and a major bust in Justin Blackmon taking up the cellar... Only one guard, one safety, and one off-ball linebacker has been picked in the first five selections over the previous 13 drafts, but interestingly, all three players have had strong careers, with Eric Berry being a multi-time All-Pro, Brandon Scherff earning five Pro Bowl selections, and Devin White earning All-Pro honors and winning a Super Bowl in four NFL seasons.
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