Seahawks QB Carousel: 3 Options for Seattle if Geno Smith Doesn't Re-Sign
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After turning in a storybook 2022 season and setting several franchise records, the Seattle Seahawks appear to be all-in on re-signing quarterback Geno Smith, who is slated to become an unrestricted free agent in March.
But following a 30-touchdown campaign that culminated with leading Seattle to a surprise playoff berth and his first Pro Bowl selection, Smith will likely command north of $30 million per year on a multi-year contract or the non-exclusive franchise tag. Agreeing to such a pricy contract after one season of quality production presents plenty of risk for the franchise, and yet at the same time, it's far easier to get worse at quarterback than get better.
Keeping that in mind, while coach Pete Carroll indicated Smith remains a "big part" of their future plans and all signs point to him returning next season, general manager John Schneider and the Seahawks won't leave a stone unturned exploring different alternatives for the quarterback position this offseason. With building a championship-caliber roster the only goal and real salary cap issues to work through in the process, all options must be kept on the table.
Here's a look at three distinct scenarios that could play out if Seattle throws a curve ball and decides to go a different direction under center in 2023:
1. Re-sign Drew Lock, roll the dice on a cheap starter for a second straight season.
Considering Lock never made the quarterback competition against Smith much of a battle last fall, rolling the dice on him as a starter in 2023 seems improbable. But at the same time, Carroll has done nothing but offer effusive praise of the former Missouri standout's work habits and improvement in recent weeks, suggesting the organization still holds him in high regard and think he has the talent to be a starter.
“Drew was as positive as you could hope a guy would be that didn’t get a chance to play. He had a really good experience," Carroll told reporters on Monday. "He worked great with the coaches, we really appreciated his talent, his work ethic, and even more so, his mentality and support of Geno [Smith]. He and Geno were buddies through the whole thing. They helped each other, and Sean Mannion was part of that as well. He doesn’t know what is coming up, so we have to wait and see, but we would love to have him back and keep growing with him.”
Like Smith, Lock's physical tools have never been questioned as a potential starting quarterback in the NFL. He has a cannon for an arm and underrated athleticism as a runner when he needs to use his legs. But he struggled with multiple play callers in Denver and turnovers have been a major problem throughout his time in the league, including getting picked off three times in Seattle's preseason finale at Dallas.
Now that he's had a full year in coordinator Shane Waldron's system, however, if they believe he has the goods to enjoy a renaissance season similar to Smith's, Carroll and Schneider could take the gamble of moving forward with Lock at a significantly cheaper cost. Likely signing for less than $10 million for 2023, the Seahawks could then redistribute as much as $20 million in cap space allocated for Smith to address other needs on the roster, potentially adding a pass rusher and/or linebacker help to offset Jordyn Brooks' ACL injury.
2. Use one of their two first-round picks on a quarterback to play right away or learn behind a placeholder veteran.
Since Carroll and Schneider arrived in 2010, Seattle has had a top 10 pick only twice, limiting the opportunity to snag an elite quarterback prospect. The franchise hasn't drafted a quarterback in the first round since way back in 1993 when Rick Mirer was selected out of Notre Dame with the second overall pick and they have only picked two quarterbacks in the opening round in the entire existence of their franchise.
For that reason, with the Seahawks holding the No. 5 overall pick courtesy of the Russell Wilson blockbuster trade with the Broncos last March, the team's brain trust absolutely must do their due diligence digging into potential franchise quarterbacks. Rookie contracts at the quarterback position pay major dividends by creating cap space to bolster the rest of the roster and if the pick pans out, such flexibility can create a four or five-year title window before the player cashes in with a massive extension.
Among those expected to be picked early in April's draft, Alabama star and former Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young, Ohio State star C.J. Stroud, and Kentucky standout Will Levis have been receiving top 10 hype for months. Even if they don't pick Young, Stroud, or Levis at No. 5 overall, Schneider may consider a high-ceiling prospect such as Florida's Anthony Richardson with the team's second first round pick at No. 20 overall. Tennessee's Hendon Hook, another dual threat signal caller with a strong arm and plus-athletic ability, could also be an option in the second round, though he turned 25 years old in January and is coming off of a torn ACL suffered late last season.
"The quarterbacks in this draft are extraordinary players," Carroll said on Monday. "You don’t get opportunities like this. We are really tuned in to all of those options.”
If Carroll and Schneider fall in love with a prospect, regardless of whether Smith returns or another veteran is added to the fold, it would behoove the Seahawks to take advantage of a rare chance to pick a quarterback of the future with two first rounders and a top five selection in tow. But with holes littered throughout the roster, other positions may be of greater importance with an abundance of draft capital to fill those voids and build around an established quarterback.
3. Swing for the fences signing another proven veteran in free agency or trading for a star quarterback.
Nobody knows how Schneider feels about the crop of quarterbacks in the 2023 NFL Draft except for the man himself and as he's shown in the past, he's not going to force the issue picking a signal caller earlier than he values the prospect. If he's not sold on Stroud or Levis as a top 10 pick and doesn't want to take a flier on Richardson or Hooker later in the draft, he may decide to stick with the veteran route and that doesn't necessarily mean Smith or Lock.
Looking at the potential free agent market, a 46-year old Tom Brady may be looking for a new home, while former 49ers starter Jimmy Garoppolo and former Raiders star Derek Carr will also be available seeking new teams. While Brady coming to the Pacific Northwest has less than a zero percent chance of happening for numerous reasons, Garoppolo and Carr could be worth a look as viable alternatives if Smith's asking price exceeds what the Seahawks are willing to pay him. Ultimately, it's hard to see either player being better than Smith was in 2022.
What creates real intrigue, however, are potential trade options. Most notably, the Ravens may be looking to shop former MVP Lamar Jackson after the two sides have failed to reach a long-term deal over the past two offseasons. Former Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman recently floated the idea of a Smith for Jackson swap on his The Richard Sherman Podcast and while such a deal coming to fruition seems improbable, if not impossible, Schneider has never been afraid to orchestrate bold moves.
Only 26 years old, Jackson would present the only clear and obvious upgrade over Smith available and teaming the explosive quarterback with running back Ken Walker III in the backfield and DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the outside would be a sight to behold. But facilitating a trade for him would require additional draft capital and he would still need a new contract likely pushing for $50 million per year. If Smith is deemed too expensive, it's hard to see the front office going for paying that kind of dough for an incredibly talented player who has battled through some injury issues.
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