Fact or Fiction: Does Seahawks QB Geno Smith Lack 'Clutch Gene?'
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Moments after his team came up short in overtime in a 40-34 loss to the Raiders, Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith took the blame for the defeat at the podium while referencing a lesson he learned when starring at West Virginia.
"When I was in college, a coach told me about the difference between a finger pointer and a thumb pointer," Smith told reporters. "I've always vowed to be a thumb pointer. I'm going to look at myself hard in the mirror, watch this film, see where I can get better and help this team win games."
Holding himself accountable for Seattle's inability to finish the job at Lumen Field on Sunday, Smith indeed failed to lead his team to victory on each of their final two drives, which each resulted in Michael Dickson punts. But looking closer at those two possessions, it's hard to fault the quarterback on those missed opportunities.
After the Raiders tied up the game on a touchdown pass from Derek Carr to Foster Moreau after the two minute warning, the Seahawks appeared poised to snatch victory from defeat. Making a diving grab along the sidelines, DK Metcalf moved the chains on 2nd and 10 to advance the football near midfield with a little over a minute left to play and the team had two timeouts left at their disposal.
Unfortunately, officials in New York decided to take a second look and reached the verdict that Metcalf didn't control the football through the process, questionably overturning the 12-yard catch to turn 1st and 10 into 3rd and 10. On the very next play, star pass rusher Maxx Crosby abused rookie tackle Abraham Lucas with a bull rush and sacked Smith, bringing up 4th and 15 to thwart the drive.
Following a missed field goal by Daniel Carlson in overtime, Smith and his teammates had another chance to win the game. But poor pass protection once again doomed Seattle, as Crosby shot off the line of scrimmage like a cannon ball and exploded past Lucas for immediate pressure on the quarterback on 3rd and 5, leading to an errant incompletion intended for running back Travis Homer.
While Smith said all the right things after the game about being a thumb pointer and he made his share of costly mistakes during Sunday's game, including throwing an interception that led to a Raiders touchdown and botching a handoff near the red zone that resulted in a turnover, the loss shouldn't be pinned on him. And quite frankly, the notion he hasn't been able to deliver in the clutch doesn't hold much water based on his play this year.
Why hasn't Smith been able to shed the label of lacking a "clutch gene?" After failing to close out games against the Rams, Saints, and Steelers last season replacing an injured Russell Wilson, the Seahawks haven't scored a single point this season inside the final two minutes of play, which signals he hasn't been able to get the job done with games on the line.
But digging deeper, that narrative still somehow clinging to Smith after Sunday's loss rings hollow for numerous reasons.
For one, few quarterbacks in the NFL have been better at bouncing back from adversity and delivering for their team than Smith has for the Seahawks in 2022. Every time the resilient veteran makes a crucial mistake, he seems to come back with a counter punch of his own and he has been especially unflappable over the past three games.
In Arizona in Week 9, Smith threw an ugly pick six to Cardinals linebacker Zaven Collins early in the third quarter, turning a three-point lead into a 14-10 deficit. Immediately rebounding from the pick, he completed six of seven passes and threw a touchdown to Tyler Lockett on the next drive to retake the lead and Seattle wound up scoring touchdowns on three consecutive possessions to seal the win.
Before the bye in a Week 10 loss to the Buccaneers in Munich, Smith coughed up a fumble in the red zone after a Tariq Woolen interception, leading to a Tampa Bay touchdown that extended the lead to 21-3 in the third quarter. Unphased, he came back to orchestrate back-to-back touchdown drives with scoring tosses to Lockett and Marquise Goodwin, giving the Seahawks a chance to pull off a miraculous comeback. But the defense unfortunately couldn't grant him one last shot.
Even in Sunday's frustrating defeat, Smith led touchdown drives immediately after his interception, which wasn't necessarily his fault due to two receivers running into each other at the top of their route, and his fumbled mesh point with Ken Walker III that resulted in a lost fumble. The second touchdown, an 18-yard dump off to Travis Homer, gave the Seahawks a 34-27 lead inside five minutes left to play. If the defense did their job, that should have been enough to win the game.
Looking at the season holistically so far, even considering Seattle's lack of points inside two minutes to play, Smith hasn't had many opportunities to win games in such situations and he's been snake bit by bad luck. Against the Falcons in Week 3, he threw a game-ending interception on a desperation heave on 4th and 18, but that came moments after a screen to Rashaad Penny that advanced the ball the opposing nine-yard line came back due to a holding penalty.
As already pointed out, Smith led a touchdown drive inside five minutes to play last Sunday and the combination of an overturned first down pass to Metcalf and abysmal pass protection didn't give him a chance to orchestrate another scoring drive. Under constant duress, it's surprising he found a way to even get the football out of his hands when Crosby hit him on third down in overtime seemingly as he finished yelling "Hike."
Rather than dwell on those two losses to make an argument against Smith's ability to close out games, other important, noteworthy evidence suggests the opposite.
The Seahawks currently rank second in the NFL averaging 8.0 points per game in the fourth quarter, a tell tale sign of Smith's success closing out games. During their four-game winning streak from Week 6 to Week 9, they won each game by at least 10 points in large part due to him leading back-breaking drives to put the nail in the opponent's coffin. He led two touchdown drives in the fourth quarter of wins over the Giants and Cardinals in consecutive weeks to seal double-digit victories, eliminating the need for a comeback drive late.
Back in Week 4, even as the Lions scored three touchdowns in the final 15 minutes to stay within striking distance, Smith led two scoring drives to ensure the Seahawks escaped with a 48-45 win on the road.
In fourth quarters this season, Smith is one of just three quarterbacks along with Aaron Rodgers and Joe Burrow with at least five touchdown passes and one or fewer interceptions. He's also the only signal caller of that select group to complete north of 70 percent of his passes and ranks third in passer rating among qualified passers. If anything has gone wrong for him in closing quarters, it has been taking big sacks, as his nine sacks taken have gone for 80 yards lost, the second-highest total behind only Davis Mills.
In some instances, the blame can fall on Smith for holding onto the ball too long and taking unnecessary sacks. That was undoubtedly a huge issue in his spot starts a year ago, but as evidenced last weekend, that hasn't been the case most of the time late in games this year. Pass protection breakdowns have put him in near-impossible situations, whether fleeing the pocket to make a desperation fourth and long throw against Atlanta or having Crosby punish him half a second off the snap.
Until Smith proves he can lead a scoring drive inside two minutes to play to win a game, critics will continue to spout off. He doesn't have a comeback win on his resume in 14 starts with the Seahawks and that stat alone provides ammunition for those still waiting for his play to regress back to pre-2022 form. From that perspective, it's not hard to see why the narrative about his lack of killer instinct still exists.
With that said, film and stats paint a vastly different picture. Smith hasn't had many chances to orchestrate comeback drives late in games for Seattle because he has prevented them from needing to occur more times than not. Believe it or not, but that's a good thing. When he has had a chance to check off the box for a comeback victory, while his play hasn't been perfect, his supporting cast has let him down either with dropped passes, missed blocking assignments, or penalties.
Most importantly, in the case of the Falcons, Raiders, and Saints losses this year, he led scoring drives late in the fourth quarter each time and the Seahawks defense couldn't hold the lead in all three instances. If anyone deserves to have the lack of a clutch gene label, put it on all 11 players on that side of the football, not the quarterback who positioned his team to win all three contests.
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