What If... the Seahawks Never Traded for Jimmy Graham?
Barely a month after dropping a 28-24 decision to the Patriots in Super Bowl XLIX, and thus missing out on a chance to repeat as NFL champions, the Seahawks were still licking their wounds after coming up yards short of victory.
Everyone knows what happened in the closing moments in Glendale. Trailing by four points, Seattle gained possession with 2:06 left to play in the fourth quarter. Russell Wilson connected on three first down passes on the ensuing drive, including a miraculous play in which Jermaine Kearse tipped the ball to himself for an acrobatic 33-yard reception to the New England five-yard line.
Two plays later, in a play that will forever live in infamy in Seahawks' lore, Wilson dropped back and tried to hit Ricardo Lockette on a slant at the goal line. Getting a great read on the throw, rookie cornerback Malcolm Butler jumped the pattern and picked the pass off, leading to the most heart-breaking defeat in franchise history.
With Wilson entering the prime of his career and most of its dominant defense under contract at the time, Seattle looked poised to make another run for a Lombardi Trophy in 2015. But to stay atop of the NFC, general manager John Schneider felt the organization needed to add another weapon for his young quarterback.
In the midst of a title window, Schneider pulled off a stunner at the start of free agency, acquiring star tight end Jimmy Graham in a blockbuster trade. As part of the deal, long-time starting center Max Unger and a first-round pick were shipped to the Saints in exchange for the All-Pro talent and a fourth-round pick.
At the time, the decision to acquire Graham was equally intriguing and perplexing. Wilson had never had a weapon like him in the passing game - in fact, the Seahawks had never had such a dynamic receiving force at the tight end position - and his presence had the potential to take their passing game to the next level.
But under coach Pete Carroll, Seattle had emerged as a consistent contender backed by a strong ground game and an elite defense. From a schematic standpoint, Graham had never been viewed as a reliable run blocker during his time in New Orleans and it seemed like Schneider was trying to fit a square peg into a circular hole.
By trading Unger without a surefire replacement, the move presented significant risk, but good organizations know when to roll the dice. Carroll and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell felt they could mesh Graham into their offense without a hitch.
In three seasons with the Seahawks, from a statistical lens, Graham's tenure with the team was a successful one. He caught 170 passes for 2,048 yards and scored 18 touchdowns, including 10 in his final season in 2017, while earning two Pro Bowl selections.
He also showed off tremendous toughness and grit by returning from a devastating torn patellar tendon suffered midway through the 2015 campaign, returning to post 923 receiving yards and six touchdowns while playing in all 16 games the next season.
But statistics only paint part of the picture, and while Graham now stands as the franchise's all-time leader for tight ends in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns, not everything went according to plan following his arrival.
As many feared, Graham wasn't able or willing to embrace blocking as a true in-line tight end. Yet, for most of his three seasons with the team, the coaching staff continually tried to use him in such a capacity, failing to best utilize his strengths.
This became more visible during his final season with the team, as Graham seemed even less keen on the idea of blocking and at times, his effort running routes was questionable. Though he put up big touchdown numbers, he registered just 520 receiving yards and became a relative non-factor between the 20s.
Meanwhile, with Unger thriving in New Orleans, Seattle struggled to find a competent replacement at center in 2015 and consequently, protection for Wilson was abysmal early in the season. Drew Nowak struggled mightily starting the first five games before being supplanted by Patrick Lewis, a former undrafted free agent out of Texas A&M.
Lewis brought much-needed stability after a 2-4 start, helping the Seahawks finish the season on a strong note to get to 10-6 and earn a wild card berth. Eventually, Justin Britt transitioned to center and finally found a home, starting 54 games over the next four seasons.
Now five years removed from the blockbuster deal, it's worth wondering how differently things would have played out if Schneider decided not to pull the trigger.
Though he may have done his best to make things work, Graham wasn't an ideal fit for Seattle's offense and Unger's loss proved detrimental to the team. With better line play, the Seahawks may have avoided such a slow start in 2015 and had a better chance at winning the NFC West, earning home field advantage in the process.
After making two straight Super Bowl runs through CenturyLink Field, such a development may have yielded a third consecutive trip and a true chance for redemption.
However, when examining trades such as this one in retrospect, it's also critical to consider how both teams used draft picks acquired as part of the deal. Looking at the trade as a whole, the Seahawks may have gotten the upper hand in the long run.
New Orleans used the first-round pick acquired from Seattle to draft linebacker Stephone Anthony, who enjoyed a strong rookie season with 112 tackles. But since then, he has amassed just 40 tackles in 46 games and spent time with three teams, including re-signing with the Saints last year.
If Seattle would have held onto the No. 31 overall pick, Schneider probably would have tried to trade down. But he also could have considered receiver Devin Funchess, tackle Donovan Smith, or linebacker Erik Kendricks as possibilities if he stayed put.
As for the fourth-round pick the Seahawks acquired in the trade, Schneider packaged the pick to move up into the third round to draft receiver Tyler Lockett. The ex-Kansas State star has produced over 2,000 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns over the past two seasons, emerging as Wilson's No. 1 target.
This wasn't like the failed trade for Percy Harvin back in 2013 in which Schneider traded a first-round pick to the Vikings in exchange for a Super Bowl kickoff returned for a touchdown and a black eye for Golden Tate.
Even if Graham wasn't as effective as some fans hoped and didn't help the team get back to a Super Bowl before departing, the Seahawks landed one of the NFL's most productive receiving tight ends for three seasons and drafted a dynamic play maker in Lockett.
As for the Saints, Unger made a Pro Bowl in his final season in 2018 before announcing his retirement, but they didn't get back to the Super Bowl either. The selection of Anthony wound up being a poor one, as he remains unsigned after five mostly unproductive NFL seasons.
It's easy to point to the Graham trade as a move that ultimately prevented the Seahawks from getting back to the big game, especially if you consider the downfall of the offensive line as the biggest reason they couldn't advance in the playoffs. There may be some substance to such an argument.
But when it's all said and done, Graham still put up gaudy numbers in a run-centric offense that didn't fit his skill set well and Lockett evolved from a special teams star to one of the NFL's best receivers. Calling this trade a failure for Seattle is far from reality and Schneider probably would do it again if he given the chance.
