5 Guidelines for Seahawks GM John Schneider as Free Agency Opens

With free agency still scheduled to begin later this week, the legal tampering period set to kick off the festivities on Monday. But despite example after example of how spending big bucks doesn't necessarily work, teams just can’t help themselves and will inevitably hand out bad contracts over the next several days.

The Seahawks don’t typically make catastrophic errors in free agency. Or at least, they haven’t yet. But the Seahawks also haven’t been big players on the “wave 1” type of free agents. General manager John Schneider usually prefers to wait until the second or third wave, which is very much in the style of his Green Bay Packers’ upbringing.

But this could finally change this week, as the Seahawks have plenty of cap space to tinker with and several holes to fill to improve their odds of winning another Super Bowl. But just because you have money to spend, doesn’t mean you should blow your money on any free agent just to say you spent it.

In order to help the Seahawks steer clear of these massive mistakes, here are a few general rules to just avoid altogether in free agency.

Rule 1: Never pay a running back “big money.”

The Seahawks are going to need to add a running back or two this off-season and there are some interesting names about to hit the market. Now, I am not in the “running backs don’t matter” camp. I’m even okay with drafting a running back in the Top 32 if he is a transcendent talent. But one thing no team should ever do is pay for a free agent running back. At least, don’t pay top of the market for one.

Last year gives us two good examples to look at. The Jets handed Le'Veon Bell a four-year, $52.5 million contracts with $35 million in guaranteed money. That bought the Jets 789 rushing yards, 461 receiving yards, and four touchdowns, which is a good but not great season, especially for the money.

Meanwhile, the Ravens paid Mark Ingram a three-year, $15 million deal with $6.5 million in guarantees. This purchased the Ravens 1,018 rushing yards, 247 receiving yards, and 15 touchdowns. Tell me which side you’d rather be on.

Seattle should simply draft a running back, but if they do want to fish in the free agency pond, it'd make more sense to go for a cheaper alternative like Carlos Hyde than Melvin Gordon.

Exceptions:

There are exceptions to all rules, but this one is pretty cut and dry. The only exception is if you are paying one of your own running backs. Re-signing a running back to big money is less of a risk, as his familiarity with the offensive scheme and culture mitigates the risk of bad scheme fit and friction with the offensive game plan.

Rule 2: When it comes to offensive tackle, either go big or go cheap.

The Seahawks are going to have holes to fill up and down their offensive line. Germain Ifedi, Mike Iupati, and George Fant are free agents. Justin Britt and D.J. Fluker are cap casualty candidates. Even Duane Brown is coming off an injury-filled season and is knocking on the door of retirement, and there is no viable replacement on the roster. But the Seahawks do have a few interior linemen that can hold the point well enough, making the tackle positions a bit more pressing.

But here is something Seattle should keep in mind: there aren’t 64 good tackles in this league. They are rare and hard to find. Rarely do good tackles find their way into free agency and when they do, they get paid. Ifedi is likely to make between $13-$15 million per year. Would you pay Ifedi that much? No. But that is what it would take to re-sign him.

Paying for tackles is a big investment that you need to be right about. There aren’t viable replacements in-season if your big tackle investment flops, meaning you have to feel so confident that you’re going to get your money back on the investment before you write the check. And if you aren’t 100 percent sold, then you’d be better off looking to the draft or later in free agency, because the difference between an $8 million tackle and a $4 million tackle is negligible.

Exception:

If you have a quarterback on his rookie deal who you believe to be a franchise guy, working a deal for a tackle that will see his guarantees expires before you have to pay your young quarterback is fine. But in Seattle's case with Russell Wilson's huge contract, you should still go big or go cheap, not middle of the road.

Rule 3: Don’t expect starters in Wave 3 of free agency

The Seahawks are big-time players in the third wave of free agency. And to their credit, they’ve found some solid contributors in this phase. What they haven’t really found are impactful players or even every week starters. Players like Ziggy Ansah, Eddie Lacy, and Luke Joeckel have been massive flops. Don’t forget about Matt Tobin and Brandon Marshall either. Wave three is a good time to get depth pieces who you hope don’t account for more than 25 percent of the total snaps, not projected starters. That's why they cost minimal money to sign.

The Seahawks need to get aggressive in wave 1 and wave 2 this year and not rely on their coaches to get more out of a player than he has ever shown or hope to turn back the clock on expired milk. Putting so many eggs in one basket as they did with Ansah last May is a ridiculous error the Seahawks no longer have to risk.

Exceptions:

Wave 3 is subjective, that is true. Very little separates players in Wave 2 and Wave 3 and the difference is almost always just a million dollars here or there. There is no problem in signing a Wave 3 guy to be the primary backup at a crucial spot, if you’re up against the salary cap, as the Seahawks have been for the past few years. But with money to spend and draft picks to use, teams like Seattle shouldn’t be scrounging around for Week 1 starters this late in free agency.

Rule 4: Invest in weaponry, just not at running back.

Like a great many of you, I think the Seahawks’ primary focus should be on the defensive side of the ball, particularly the defensive line. But there are other needs that still need to be addressed and a decent player pool to fill those holes.

This is particularly true at the receiver position, where the Seahawks will employ DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and a lot of undrafted free agents and late-round picks. Now thankfully, the NFL draft is loaded at the position this year, but this doesn’t mean Schneider should completely ignore free agency. Rookie receivers are famously unreliable. For every DK Metcalf, there are two Gary Jennings.

But this draft class is good enough that the Seahawks don’t need to trade for Stefon Diggs or Odell Beckham Jr. Instead, they may find value in players like Randall Cobb, Nelson Agholor, or Taylor Gabriel, who should be affordable in free agency.

Exception:

I say to stay away from pricey vets like Amari Cooper and Emmanuel Sanders, but on a one-year prove it deal, the situation becomes much different. Of course, that won’t happen, but if Stefon Diggs is all of a sudden available for a third-round pick, Schneider would be foolish not to engage at that point.

Rule 5: Don’t confuse familiarity with value.

It goes without saying for most people, but just because you know a player, doesn’t mean he is a good fit. Bruce Irvin and Michael Bennett have both expressed interest in returning to Seattle and both could make a little bit of sense at the right number and role. But the Seahawks cannot move them up the board just because they know them.

Sure, familiarity can be nice and help with negotiations and understanding how a player ticks, but it doesn’t mean that the player you once knew is the same guy he was all those years ago. Let me put it this way: assume you can get Irvin or Bennett for $5 million or you can hand it over to Quinton Jefferson. Who are you giving the money to? Probably Jefferson, who is younger, more versatile, and is a fit in the new locker room dynamic. Just be smart about these choices and remember, familiar isn’t always better.

Exception:

If you are deciding between two players who will slide somewhere between 40-53 on your roster, familiarity is a good tie-breaker.

Thankfully, the Seahawks have a skilled general manager, a popular head coach, and an elite quarterback to sell free agents this spring. And, for the first time in a while, they have cold hard cash to offer up, though not as much as some projected. The Seahawks are typically quiet in the first few days of free agency. But this year could be different and things could get exciting early in the Pacific Northwest.

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