Did Seahawks Overpay for Familiarity with Jarran Reed?

The Seahawks signed Reed to a two-year deal that was universally liked by the fan base. However, it can be argued the team lost the value game with this contract.

The Seahawks have spent much of the legal tampering period trying desperately to keep their own players from leaving. While most of these signings have been to lock up role players, they did spend sizable money on long-time starting defensive tackle Jarran Reed.

Reed and the Seahawks settled on a two-year deal worth $23 million, including a $10 million signing bonus and $4.1 million in other guarantees. The two-year deal would allow Reed to hit free agency again as a 29-year old at a time when the salary cap would increase significantly.

For Seattle, coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider are hoping they'll get the 2018 version of Reed for the next two years at what they believe is a sizable discount for their sizable defensive tackle. And if Reed can provide anywhere near the 10.5 sacks he did in 2018 for the next few years, this will be a good contract.

But it is fair to question whether the Seahawks got maximum value in this deal. After all, prior to his breakout 2018, Reed had just 1.5 sacks in each of his first two seasons, and after missing the first six games serving a suspension, Reed only managed 2.0 sacks in 2019. 

So of Reed's 15.5 sacks, 10.5 of them came in one season. Hmm. As a "baseball guy," one of the things I'm trained to do is to look for an outlier and in this case, there isn't a bigger statistical outlier than what I just laid out to you.

The simple truth is - we don't know if Reed is a good pass rusher or not. The Seahawks must believe he is. If they didn't, they couldn't possibly give Reed this kind of contract. Run stuffing tackles are the relief pitchers on the NFL and Seattle has a knack for finding good players to fill that role late in free agency.

Consider the tandem Seattle used early in 2019. Poona Ford, an undrafted free agent, and Al Woods, a 32-year-old free agent who signed for $2.5 million, held up well in Reed's absence. In fact, both Ford and Woods earned PFF grades in the 70s, well above Reed's mark in 2019.

Now, neither Ford nor Woods has the pass rush upside of Reed, but unless you are willing to bank on his 2018 season is the "real" Reed, neither is the man to whom the Seahawks just gave $23 million.

Like Carroll, I believe Reed is closer to the 2018 player than he was last year. But is he an 8-plus sack performer or closer to 4 or 5 range? And when you take into account that Gerald McCoy, who has recorded five or more sacks every year since 2012, just signed a three-year deal with the Cowboys at an Average Annual Value (AAV) at $6.5 million, there is a reason for concern that Seattle may have overpaid for familiarity.

It really comes down to this: in 2020, a very good run-stopping defensive tackle is less valuable than it ever has been. You need to be able to impact the passing game as well. If Reed does that, Seattle will get value in this deal. If Reed is the player he was in 2016, 2017, or 2019, they likely won't and he could be gone this time next year.