Fact or Fiction: How Will 2022 NFL Draft Play Out For Seahawks?

When it comes to predictability, trying to speculate what the Seahawks will do during draft weekend can be an exercise of futility. Few general managers know to how to throw a curveball better than John Schneider, who has made plenty of unexpected picks over the years that have left draft pundits scratching their collective heads.

Back in 2011, Schneider's second draft in Seattle, the team surprised many by investing a first-round pick in Alabama tackle James Carpenter. Only a year later, in a selection panned by most experts at the time, he "reached" to pick West Virginia defensive end Bruce Irvin. In a few other examples that worked out to varying degrees, he stunningly selected running back Rashaad Penny and linebacker Jordyn Brooks in the first round of the 2018 and 2020 drafts respectively.

Aside from his penchant for making early picks from left field, forecasting what Schneider will do during the draft can also be extremely difficult due to his eagerness to conduct trades to move up and down the board. Since 2011, only Patriots coach/general manager Bill Belichick has executed more draft weekend trades than him, and it's not out of the realm of possibility he could do it again while holding the No. 9 pick in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft.

Considering Schneider and coach Pete Carroll's track record for orchestrating the unexpected in 12 seasons calling the shots, it's anyone's guess what will unfold in Las Vegas starting next Thursday. Taking a stab at predicting the unpredictable, reporters Corbin Smith and Ty Gonzalez pulled out their crystal balls and played "Fact or Fiction," projecting what will become reality for the Seahawks next weekend.

The Seahawks will pick a quarterback in the first 32 selections.

Corbin Smith: Fiction. With this year's quarterback class being average at best, it seems unlikely Seattle will force the issue picking one at No. 9 overall. Even if Schneider trades down, selecting a signal caller would be risky with other significant needs to fill. This could be viewed as a 50/50 proposition because if the right player remains available in the first round, including Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder, Schneider has the ammo to trade back into the first of he wants and benefit from the fifth-year option. But if they pick one, I'm leaning towards it happening in round two with one of their two second-round picks.

Ty Dane Gonzalez: Fact. While I'd be stunned if the Seahawks took a quarterback with pick No. 9 or after a subsequent trade down, I would venture to say that anything is on the table in the back half of the round. With two second-round picks this year and next, as well as two firsts in 2023, Schneider is stocked with more than enough firepower to make such a move from Pick No. 40 happen with relative ease, should the right prospect fall in their trade range. I think it happens, whether Desmond Ridder drops into the early-to-mid 20s or Seattle has eyes for Sam Howell, Kenny Pickett, or Matt Corral.

Seattle will draft a player at No. 9 overall who isn't a quarterback, tackle, or edge rusher.

Corbin Smith: Fact. If Seattle has a shot at drafting one of the top two tackles (Evan Neal, Ickey Ekwonu) or one of the top pass rushers (Kayvon Thibodeaux, Travon Walker, Jermaine Johnson), then it would be a stunner if Schneider didn't go with one of those blue chip prospects. But there's a good chance all six of those players could be picked in the first eight selections and they're unlikely to pick a quarterback. Unless they want to reach for Mississippi State tackle Charles Cross or Northern Iowa's Trevor Penning, if the Seahawks want to pick best player available, Cincinnati cornerback Ahmad Gardner, Utah linebacker Devin Lloyd, and Georgia defensive tackle Jordan Davis could all make sense at that spot.

Ty Dane Gonzalez: Fact. Seahawks fans should know by now that anything is possible with this team on draft week, and picking purely for need would feel like a missed opportunity with their first top-10 selection in over a decade. There's a good chance the best players available when pick No. 9 comes around won't be quarterbacks, tackles, or edges, but rather a mix of defensive backs, interior defensive linemen, linebackers, and receivers. Barring a trade back, odds are they end up going the route of one of those positions.

The Seahawks won’t select a cornerback until the fifth round or later.

Corbin Smith: Fiction. Historically, Seattle has never picked a cornerback earlier than the third round (Shaquill Griffin in 2017) with Schneider and Carroll at the helm and they usually pick players at the position on day three. Even Richard Sherman came to town as an unheralded fifth-round pick in 2011. But with Gardner and LSU's Derek Stingley potentially being in play in the first round and a deep class at the position overall to help compensate for D.J. Reed's departure, it would be quite surprising if the Seahawks don't draft one with their four picks in the first three rounds.

Ty Dane Gonzalez: Fiction. Yes, there is plenty of evidence that suggests the Seahawks don't value the cornerback position very highly, hence their lack of spending there both in money and draft picks. But circumstances and feelings change year-to-year, and this class of cornerbacks in particular is very much top-heavy. With D.J. Reed now in New York and Tre Brown recovering from a patellar tendon injury, it would behoove Seattle to bolster its corner group and the only way to truly do that may be via the first two—perhaps three—rounds.

John Schneider will make at least four draft weekend trades.

Corbin Smith: Fact. Aside from Bill Belichick of the Patriots, nobody has made more trades on draft weekend than Schneider dating back to 2011. With four picks inside the top-75 and a bevy of draft capital in 2023, expect "Trader John" to be extremely active moving up and down the draft. He might not quite replicate 2019 when he made a whopping six trades during draft weekend, but he will come close and the picks the Seahawks actually make may look dramatically different than the eight picks they are slotted for heading towards Thursday.

Ty Dane Gonzalez: Fact. In 2019, the last time Schneider had a similar arsenal of picks, he made a whopping six trades, moving both up and down the draft board. Considering the abundance of picks he has at his disposal this year and next, it shouldn't come as a surprise if Seattle fills the transaction wire itself. As ridiculous as it may sound, there's a non-zero chance the Seahawks don't make a single selection with the picks they're currently slotted in.

The Seahawks will make a trade that includes a star player either being traded away or being acquired from another team.

Corbin Smith: Fiction. While rumors have circulated about the future of receiver DK Metcalf heading into the final year of his rookie contract, and teams have undoubtedly called after Bobby Wagner and Russell Wilson were sent packing, he's too important to Seattle's future to trade away and wants to be in the Pacific Northwest long-term. Expect the team to pony up a lucrative extension to make him one of the highest-paid receivers in the league. Tyler Lockett wouldn't be a tradeable asset either, as he just signed a three-year extension last year and would incur a $28 million dead cap hit. As giddy as Schneider and Carroll are about having four picks in the top 72 selections, with limited cap space at their disposal, it seems improbable they would trade assets away for a star player from another team.

Ty Dane Gonzalez: Fiction. There were obvious reasons for the sudden exits of Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner. So while the rest of the NFL saw a big, bright neon sign advertising a fire sale, those moves appear to be the extent of Seattle's major personnel changes. Of course, if a team is willing to knock Schneider and company's collective socks off with a return matching or exceeding the packages Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill netted for their respective former clubs, then that could change things on the Metcalf situation. But that doesn't seem very likely at the moment, with the Seahawks sounding more than prepared to make the one-time All-Pro one of the highest-paid receivers in the sport.

Seattle will use multiple picks to address the tackle position.

Corbin Smith: Fact. While it remains to be seen if Seattle will pick a tackle in the first round, the position may be the team's biggest immediate need. With Duane Brown and Brandon Shell still unsigned, the team has only three tackles on the roster with a combined five starts. Even if Stone Forsythe or Jake Curhan is viewed as a long-term starter, they need to add competition at both tackle spots, so picking two with eight-plus picks seems probable. If the team plans to bring back Brown, of course, they might not feel the need to pick two. But given his age, it would behoove them to consider doing so at a critical position.

Ty Dane Gonzalez: Fiction. Honestly, this one could go either way. But with the door still open for Brown to return, it's possible the Seahawks don't view their tackle situation as dire as it does to the outside eye. Eight picks may seem like a lot at face value, but Seattle has an abundance of needs throughout its roster. I'd be fairly surprised if Schneider and crew managed to walk away from this draft without two new offensive linemen in tow, but I'd guess that one of them is an interior player, particularly a center.

Going against past precedent, Seattle will pick an FCS prospect in the first three rounds.

Corbin Smith: Fact. Schneider and Carroll have never drafted an FCS prospect earlier than the fifth round in their previous 12 drafts and haven't picked a non-FBS Division I player since receiver David Moore in 2017. Both of those streaks have an excellent chance of coming to an end with a number of intriguing FCS talents who performed well at the Senior Bowl, including Penning as a first-round possibility. In addition, Seattle has met with North Dakota State receiver Christian Watson and Chattanooga center Cole Strange at least once during the pre-draft process. Athletic Montana State linebacker Troy Andersen could also be on the radar on day two after starring in Mobile, so there's no shortage of options that check off boxes for the Seahawks.

Ty Dane Gonzalez: Fact. There are quite a few FCS prospects I like for the Seahawks near the top of this draft. Heck, I'll even make a prediction for this one, because why not? Despite having two All-Pros and a recent second-round pick in its receiving corps, Seattle will select dynamic North Dakota State receiver Christian Watson with one of its day two picks.

John Schneider will end the draft with 10 or more selections.

Corbin Smith: Fiction. While Schneider has become known for his proclivity to trade down in the first round, he's also been one of the most aggressive general managers in the NFL when it comes to trading up, particularly on day two. In the past, he's moved up to select Lockett, Metcalf, defensive tackle Jarran Reed, and most recently Darrell Taylor, with all four of those players drafted in the second or third round. Considering the draft capital he has to work with in the next two drafts, it seems guaranteed he will move up at least once, if not more. For this exercise, I project the Seahawks will select nine new players, including six in the first three rounds.

Ty Dane Gonzalez: Fiction. Although it's certainly appealing to take as many shots as possible, especially in a draft as seemingly deep as this one, the name of the game is ultimately quality over quantity. In the end, I would guess Seattle ends up making seven-to-nine selections, depending on how aggressive it winds up getting in the trade market.

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