Examining Seahawks Strength of Schedule Numbers

When it comes to predicting future results in the NFL, strength of schedule percentages are far from the perfect measuring stick. As much as any professional team sport, rosters experience tremendous turnover through free agency and the draft each year, which renders records from the previous season somewhat meaningless.

But there isn't a more concrete way to evaluate an NFL team's schedule statistically and by digging a bit deeper, we can have a better understanding of what these strength of schedule percentages really mean.

As is the case each year, the Seahawks will play six NFC West divisional games against the Cardinals, 49ers, and Rams. They will also play all four teams from the AFC East and NFC East along with two non-common conference games against the Falcons and Vikings based on divisional finish in 2019.

Based on last year's standings, Seattle enters the 2020 season with the 13th-highest overall strength of schedule. Divisional strength carries much of this weight, as all four NFC West squads rank in the top 12 for in-division strength. This shouldn't be surprising, as the division had three teams finish with at least nine wins and those teams combined to record 33 victories last year.

Even with the Cardinals added to the equation with a 5-10-1 season, Seahawks' divisional opponents won nearly 60 percent of their games last season, the sixth-best overall percentage in the league.

So what explains Seattle's middle-of-the-road overall strength of schedule? It comes down to the fact the NFC East was one of the worst divisions in recent memory with the Cowboys, Redskins, Eagles, and Giants combining to win just 24 games last year. If not for a late-season surge by Philadelphia, the division winner would have been .500 or had a losing record.

The AFC East was a bit more respectable with New England and Buffalo combining to win 22 games and each reaching the postseason. The division went 34-30 overall, posting a 53.1 percent win rate.

The Seahawks rank 23rd overall in strength of schedule for out of division games, with the Rams and Cardinals even lower due to games against teams that finished third and fourth in the NFC North and NFC South last year. The 49ers come in at 10th overall due to far tougher games against the division-winning Saints and Packers on their schedule.

If the NFC East remains an average division - three of the teams will be breaking in new coaches this year - the NFC West should be able to feast. With an extra playoff spot in each conference, it's not impossible three or even four teams in the division could make a run for the postseason.

But to win arguably the deepest division in the sport, the Seahawks will have to have a strong season against their rivals after going just 3-3 in the division last year. Getting above .500 in the NFC West could be the difference between a home playoff game and a wild card.

Here are the strength of schedules for all 32 teams broken down above. Each of the NFC West teams are in bold.

IN-DIVISION - Winning percentage of three division rivals in 2019.

1. Arizona .688

2. Detroit .646

3. L.A. Rams .615

4. Miami .604

5. Cincinnati .583

6. Seattle .573

7. Carolina .563

N.Y. Jets .563

9. Chicago .552

10. Jacksonville .542

L.A. Chargers .542

12. San Francisco .531

13. Atlanta .521

Indianapolis .521

Tampa Bay .521

16. Minnesota .510

17. Buffalo .500

Cleveland .500

Denver .500

Las Vegas .500

21. Tennessee .479

22. Houston .458

New England .458

Pittsburgh .458

25. Green Bay .448

26. Washington .438

27. N.Y. Giants .417

28. Kansas City .396

New Orleans .396

30. Baltimore .333

31. Dallas .333

32. Philadelphia .313

OUT OF DIVISION - Winning percentage of out of conference, out of division opponents in 2019.

1. Philadelphia .591

2. New England .584

3. Kansas City .563

4. Houston .553

5. New Orleans .547

6. Buffalo .541

7. Green Bay .538

8. Dallas .534

9. Atlanta .528

10. San Francisco .525

11. N.Y. Giants .522

12. Denver .519

Minnesota .519

14. N.Y. Jets .516

15. Tennessee .509

16. Baltimore .500

17. Las Vegas .494

18. Indianapolis .491

Tampa Bay .491

20. Miami .484

21. Chicago .481

Washington .481

23. Seattle .469

24. Jacksonville .466

25. Carolina .463

L.A. Chargers .463

27. L.A. Rams .456

Pittsburgh .456

29. Detroit .453

30. Cleveland .438

31. Arizona .416

32. Cincinnati .413

OVERALL - Combined winning percentage for all 16 upcoming opponents in 2019.

1. New England .537

2. N.Y. Jets .533

3. Miami .529

4. San Francisco .527

5. Atlanta .525

Buffalo .525

Detroit .525

8. Arizona .518

Houston .518

10. L.A. Rams .516

Minnesota .516

12. Denver .512

13. Chicago .508

Seattle .508

15. Green Bay .504

16. Indianapolis .502

Tampa Bay .502

18. Carolina .500

Kansas City .500

20. Tennessee .498

21. Las Vegas .496

22. Jacksonville .494

23. L.A. Chargers .492

24. New Orleans .490

25. Philadelphia .486

26. N.Y. Giants .482

27. Cincinnati .477

28. Washington .465

29. Cleveland .461

30. Dallas .459

31. Pittsburgh .457

32. Baltimore .438