Should Seahawks Extend RB Chris Carson?

Since arriving as an unheralded seventh-round pick out of Oklahoma State in the 2017 NFL Draft, Chris Carson has been close to the perfect Seahawks running back.

If coach Pete Carroll could engineer a ball carrier in a laboratory, he'd have a tough time creating a better physical prototype than Carson. The chiseled 5-foot-11, 222-pound back looks like he was carved from stone by Greek gods with the sole purpose of demoralizing would-be tacklers on the gridiron.

But when it comes to deciding whether or not to re-sign Carson, who will become an unrestricted free agent next spring, the Seahawks face quite the predicament.

On one hand, few players have been more productive for Seattle over the past two years than Carson. When he went down with a season-ending hip injury in late December, the team missed his presence as a backfield battering ram badly in the postseason.

Now 25 years old and in the prime of his career, Carson has eclipsed 1,100 rushing yards in each of the past two seasons and scored 16 rushing touchdowns as Seattle's workhorse back. Whether trucking through defenders or making them miss in space, he's ranked among the NFL's best in shrugging off tacklers in both seasons as well, finishing with 51 total broken tackles during that span.

Carson has also shown himself to be a reliable receiver, setting career-bests with 37 receptions for 266 yards and two touchdowns in 2019. Along with being steady in pass protection, he's never posted a catch rate below 78 percent and has caught 64 out of 79 career targets.

In the locker room, Carson commands the respect of his teammates for his workmanlike approach and willingness to put his body on the line each week. He's a quiet leader whose actions are best exhibited while wearing a helmet and pads.

However, like other running backs in this era, Carson's future in Seattle, or with another franchise for that matter, remains clouded in large part due to the recent failures of star backs granted a lucrative second contract.

Just in the past few years, the Cardinals extended David Johnson on a three-year, $39 million deal, the Rams gave Todd Gurley a four-year, $57.5 million deal, and the Cowboys handed Ezekiel Elliott a six-year, $90 million deal. The Jets also got in on the act, signing free agent Le'Veon Bell to a four-year, $52.5 million deal last March.

The players don't deserve all of the blame - that wouldn't be close to fair - but none of those four teams made the playoffs last year.

While Elliott rushed for over 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns, the other three aforementioned backs struggled in 2019. Johnson lost his starting job to Kenyan Drake and finished with 345 rushing yards, Gurley took on a diminished role with 857 rushing yards, and Bell managed just 789 rushing yards, the second-lowest total of his career.

All four of those backs have at least two years remaining on their contracts, hamstringing their respective teams with massive cap hits. Aside from maybe the Cowboys, none of those organizations can feel good about their investment. And given his struggles trying to extend quarterback Dak Prescott, owner Jerry Jones might be feeling some regret about his decision too.

The Seahawks value running the football as much as any team in the NFL and they haven't been afraid to invest at the position. Marshawn Lynch signed a two-year, $24 million extension prior to the 2015 season and two years ago, the team used a first-round pick on Rashaad Penny.

But looking back, neither of those decisions worked out favorably for Seattle. While "Beast Mode" may eventually be in the Hall of Fame, he only played one more injury-riddled season with the team before his first retirement. As for Penny, he hasn't even reached 800 rushing yards in his first two seasons and is recovering from a torn ACL.

Ultimately, Carson may be demonized by his own success story. As well as he's played for the Seahawks, he's just one of many recent examples of late-round or undrafted running backs thriving in the NFL. The Broncos found an undrafted gem in Phillip Lindsay, who has rushed for 1,000 yards in two straight seasons, while the Chargers extended do-it-all undrafted back Austin Ekeler on a four-year, $24.5 million deal.

There are arguments to be made for extending Carson. Even considering his fumble issues, he's finished in the top five in rushing yards each of the past two seasons and after making just $645,000 last year, he has more than earned a hefty raise. His physical style suits Seattle's offensive scheme and the organization has the cap flexibility to keep him.

Still, Carson has already suffered a fractured ankle and a cracked hip in his first three seasons. He's battled durability issues throughout his football career dating back to high school. Does that sound like the kind of player a team should give a $10-plus million per year contract to? Especially at a position with such a short shelf life?

General manager John Schneider will keep all doors open. He always does. If Carson is willing to stay for $8 million per year or less on a three-year deal with limited guaranteed salary, then an extension could make sense for the Seahawks. He's certainly earned that and running backs are more valuable than perceived by some.

But Schneider also understands the league landscape is constantly changing and evolving. Spending anything more than that to extend a running back, even one as talented as Carson, might not be a shrewd move in 2020. This will be a story line to monitor in coming months.