Analyzing Alex Highsmith's Contract Extension With Steelers
Coming off a career year where he garnered Pro-Bowl consideration, Alex Highsmith and the Pittsburgh Steelers organization are quickly approaching a crossroads.
Back in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft, Pittsburgh selected Highsmith with the 102nd overall pick, a compensatory selection that they were awarded via the NFL for the loss of star running back Le'Veon Bell. Highsmith's 4-year, roughly $4.5M dollar rookie scale contract expires after 2023, begging the question of whether the Steelers will pony up the funds to keep the rising pass rush phenom around.
The selection of Highsmith is one of the best overall value picks of Kevin Colbert's tenure as the team's general manager. It's glaringly obvious that the former Charlotte product has vastly outplayed his rookie contract and is coming due for a significant raise involving life-changing money. To predict the range of potential outcomes for this scenario, we begin by looking at Highsmith's production numbers before comparing them against his peers around the league.
The Breakout
Highsmith's 2021 season was technically his breakout campaign, taking over as a full-time starter once Bud Dupree took his talents to Tennessee after signing a lucrative deal. In 2021, Highsmith had 38 pressures and nine sacks. Year three in 2022 brought even more good fortune for the Steelers and their breakout edge rusher, as he took his game to yet another level, notching 55 total pressures and 15 sacks.
Both numbers were career highs, but Highsmith wasn't just rushing the passer at an impressive rate, he was also causing chaos when he got to the quarterback, forcing five fumbles after only forcing one his first two seasons combined.
Here is where Highsmith ranked among NFL edge rushers in 2022:
- Sacks (5th)
- Pressures (21st)
- Pass rush productivity (25th)
If you aren't familiar with Pro Football Focus' signature PRP stat, it essentially weighs how productive a pass rusher is on a snap basis.
Having watched every snap on film, combining that with the underlying production numbers, it's pretty reasonable to conclude that Highsmith was a borderline top-10 edge rusher in the entire league this past season. At just 25 years old, likely just now entering the prime of his career, that's a pretty impressive feat to already have on his resume especially given his backstory.
The 'Hometown Discount'
To be completely honest, what most NFL fans refer to as a hometown discount doesn't actually exist in today's landscape. NFL players are employees, and just like the rest of us, they are setting out to maximize their earnings in their prime years.
Now that's not to say that players always sign to the highest bidder, the situation certainly plays a sizable role in those decisions, but money is king. Just for fun, what would a Highsmith contract look like if he did choose to take a bit of a hometown discount in order to stay in the city of Pittsburgh?
A contract similar to what Trey Hendrickson received from Cincinnati is likely the bare minimum threshold to even consider conversations serious. Hendrick was a late bloomer in New Orleans who truly didn't break out until year four, hitting free agency and opting to sign with the Bengals, inking a four-year, $60M deal with $16M in contract guarantees. Hendrickson was just 27 years old during the first year of his deal and is currently the 18th highest-paid edge rusher in the league, according to overthecap.
Another close example would be Bud Dupree, former Steelers first-round pick who signed with the Titans back in 2021. His situation was a bit tricky, as he was coming off an ACL injury, but he landed a monster contract early in free agent anyways.
Prior to signing his 5-year, $82.5M ($35M guaranteed) deal with the Titans, Dupree registered a 13.6% pressure rate, the highest of his career to date before suffering a season-ending injury.
The Realistic Scenario
While not exactly a 1-1 comparison, arguably the closest comparison to Highsmith's situation might be Harold Landry's in Tennessee. Just prior to free agency last year, Landry signed a 5-year, $87.5M deal with a shade over $35M of guaranteed money at signing, making him one of the ten highest-paid players at the position. In 2021, Landry racked up career highs across the board in pressures (70) and sacks (16), comparable figures to what Highsmith accumulated just this past season.
Landry is a little bit different of a player than Highsmith, however. Landry is also a speed guy, but he gets a lot of his production off of stunts and twists, as he's one of the best loopers in the entire league. He's a great fit for what the Titans like to do up front, but in terms of straight pass-rushing production in one-on-one situations, Highsmith certainly has the edge. Landry unfortunately also suffered a season-ending injury prior to the 2022 season and is currently trying to work his way back on the field.
Go Get Paid
A tale as old as time, the most recent contracts at your position are often the bar used by agents in order to get their clients paid handsomely. The last big-name edge rusher to get paid? Bradley Chubb, whom the Miami Dolphins traded a first-round pick for just prior to signing him to a lucrative 5-year, $110M deal with over $63M in contract guarantees. When factoring in the picks and money involved here, it's clear that the Dolphins have likely coveted Chubb for a long time and see him as a player that will be a foundational piece for years to come.
The problem here is that the idea of Bradley Chubb has always been very enticing, but he's had a ton of issues staying healthy early on in his career. Any time you hand a player a massive contract extension, you're taking a gamble, but this is a serious roll of the dice given his injury history. On top of that, Chubb has been productive when he's been on the field, but he's never been a dominant player for lengthy stretches, which is sort of what you'd expect to see when making a player the sixth-highest played at his position.
If Alex Highsmith wants to get the bag in free agency, he could likely point to Chubb's contract and compare the numbers between the two players and use that as a bargaining tool. Chubb has the upper hand in that he was a first-round pick, which matters more than it probably should in today's league but he's never put together a season like Highsmith did in 2022.
The Decision at Hand
After viewing the contracts for similar, recently paid edge rushers, you get a sense of the potential range of outcomes in terms of money. But the first of two questions that the Steelers need to ask themselves is whether or not they view Highsmith as a foundational piece of their defense for the long-term future.
Mike Tomlin often talks about the natural progression for players entering years two and three, and Highsmith is the most recent example of a youngster getting better with playing time and experience.
If the answer to the first question is yes then they'll need to decide just how much they value his contributions to this defense and how far they're willing to go in order to keep him.
If $15 million APY is the bare minimum and $22 million is the floor, the middle ground feels like $18 million. Are the Steelers comfortable with their starting edge rushers taking up roughly $45M of their cap space on a yearly basis moving forward? That's a fair question after they decided to let Dupree walk a couple of years ago with a Watt mega-contract looming in the distance.
Draft and Replace?
So what happens if the Steelers don't prioritize keeping Highsmith long-term for whatever reason?
It's likely that they'll be headed right back to the draft pool, which has been insanely deep over the past two classes. The problem with that line of thinking is that it's not easy to find the next Highsmith.
Bleacher Report's Brandon Thorn created his signature stat called "True Sack Score" with the intent of accurately evaluating sacks beyond the box score, as some are not as valuable or impressive as others. Highsmith finished third in the entire NFL this past season in this metric, only behind Myles Garrett and Haason Reddick.
As you'll recall, both Garrett and Reddick were first-round picks in their respective classes. The two names directly behind Highsmith? Micah Parsons and Nick Bosa, a pair of Defensive Player of the Year candidates who were also first-round draft picks.
Over time, research has shown us that the vast majority of impactful pass rushers are former first-round draft picks. Pittsburgh being able to find a player of Highsmith's caliber outside the top 100 was insane value but it's not easily replicated, and it makes the "draft and place" strategy that much more difficult.
It's also worth noting that rookies at this position take a little bit to get going, some more than others. So if this is indeed Highsmith's last hoorah in the Burgh, the Steelers need to make an investment at that position, likely a significant one at that.
With all of their other needs, it would be interesting to see how they would balance where to select a player who would likely be just a rotational piece in year one, similar to how Highsmith was deployed back in his rookie season in 2020.
Decision Time
As Highsmith enters the final year of his rookie contract, it's decision time. Yes, the Steelers could let him play out the final year of his deal with the idea that they could utilize the franchise tag on him in 2024, but with mega-contracts coming due for players like Nick Bosa and Brian Burns, that number is only going to continue to climb. Which is why the Steelers probably need to make a decision on Highsmith's future sooner rather than later.
A 4-year, $72M dollar deal with the first year and a healthy signing bonus fully guaranteed feels like a reasonable starting point between the two parties. Negotiations will require some back and forth, some give and take between both sides but this is a deal that feels like it needs to get done.
He's a perfect, glove-like fit for the Steelers' scheme. Pittsburgh's defensive ideology revolves around getting to the quarterback and letting a young player this young and this productive hit the market seems to go against their team-building philosophy.
Having T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Highsmith locked up on long-term deals would definitely be pretty comforting for the franchise. If you look around the league, it would be difficult to find more than a couple of comparable trios with all three players still in their primes.
Keeping this young nucleus together is what's likely best for business.
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