Evaluating Javon Hargrave's Market Value, Chances of Staying in Pittsburgh
It's not a question of if the Pittsburgh Steelers wish to retain defensive tackle Javon Hargrave. Since joining the team in 2016, Hargrave has continually progressed into what Pittsburgh believes to be a invaluable piece of their defense.
While Hargrave may not produce with company such as Aaron Donald and Chris Jones, he sure knows how to make his presence felt on the field.
“This is what I love,” Hargrave told ESPN's Jeremy Fowler on potentially leaving Pittsburgh. “This is where my friends are. It’s all I know. I hope that we can work that out and we can make that happen.”
It's not a question of if Hargave wants to return to Pittsburgh in 2020 and potentially further. It's a question of if the Steelers are willing to pay Hargrave a significant amount of money for his services.
In an offseason where the Steelers are working with limited cap space and have other priorities such as outside linebacker Bud Dupree, many think the team will defer to keeping Dupree over Hargrave, should it come down to deciding between the two.
"He is a priority for us,” Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said of Dupree during his closing press conference. “But we haven’t had meetings yet to define that. But make no mistake, Bud Dupree is a priority for us.”
Would Dupree be willing to take a hometown discount? What Hargrave entertain that same thought? While we already dissected Dupree's market value earlier in the season, we still need to see what potential money Hargrave is looking at on the open market.
Dissecting Hargrave's Numbers
2019 was the third straight season where Hargrave played all sixteen games for the Steelers, while just missing one game in his rookie season due to injury. There are many traits to a football player, but the number one ability is availability. As previously stated, Hargrave's job in Pittsburgh's 3-4 defense is to disrupt the interior of the line and (hopefully) free up other defensive players to make plays.
Despite doing the dirty work of the defense, Hargrave hit a career high 60 tackles, along with four sacks and one forced fumble. As previously stated, Hargrave's box score numbers don't jump off the page. For what it's worth, Hargave finished ahead of players such as Minkah Fitzpatick, Vince Williams and T.J. Watt in terms of total tackles.
2019 saw Hargrave reel in nearly $2.2 million, with a base salary of a little over $2 million. Hargrave's $2.198 million cap hit in 2019 ranked 47th among defensive tackles,
With Hargrave rushing the passer more efficiently than any interior defender in 2019 and only turning 27 this February, he's expected to command quite the dollar in free agency.
Previous Defensive Tackle Contracts
How many dollars will Hargrave see? Unfortunately, our crystal ball is out for repair and won't be back for awhile. However, we can still compare recent defensive tackles to hit the market and compare their contracts.
2019's DT Free Agent Class:
Grady Jarrett- 4 year, $68 million ($17 million annually)
Marcell Dareus- 2 year, $28.08 million ($14.04 million annually)
Sheldon Richardson- 3 year, $37 million ($12.3 million annually)
Damon Harrison- 1 year, $11.25 million
Malik Jackson- 3 year, $30 million ($10 million annually)
2019 average annual value: $16.9 million
Jarrett is the most recent defensive tackle to be paid handsomely, earning a cool $17 million per year. Prior to securing the bag, Here's how Jarrett's 2018 numbers compared to Hargrave's 2019 stats:
Hargrave: 60 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 2 run stuffs
Jarrett: 52 tackles, 6 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 6 run stuffs
While you can make an argument that Jarrett's overall numbers are better, Hargrave is right behind Jarrett in overall production. Will Hargrave see serious money like Jarrett did? To see more of a wider sample size, I also wanted to take a look at 2018's free agency group.
2018's DT Free Agent Class:
*Aaron Donald earned a six year, $135 million contract in 2018. Donald is excluded from the below list*
Geno Atkins- 4 year, $65.2 million ($16.3 million annually)
Star Lotulelei- 5 year, $50 million ($10 million annually)
Eddie Goldman- 4 year, $42.04 million ($10.51 annually)
Dontari Poe- 3 year, $28 million ($9.3 million annually)
Beau Allen- 3 year, $15 million ($5 million annually)
2018 average annual value: $10.22 million
With no surprise, 2019 defensive tackles are higher earners than their 2018 counterparts. With the league's salary cap expanding after each season, this is to be expected. *Note, when including Donald's $22.5 million annual salary, 2018's average jumps to $13.7 million*
So what does 2020's free agency group look like?
2020 Possibilities
The NFL's salary cap is expected to jump anywhere between $196.8 million to $201.2 million, per multiple reports earlier in December. The salary cap has jumped over $10 million per year for the last six seasons, and a seventh consecutive year is expected when free agency opens in March.
Hargrave will not be the only defensive tackle searching for a new paycheck after the conclusion of this season. The following defensive tackles are just a handful of interior linemen who will be unrestricted free agents in 2020: Michael Brockers, Danny Shelton, Jordan Phillips, Shelby Harris, Michael Pierce, Andrew Billings, D.J. Reader and Maliek Collins.
While we are still unsure on who will rank as the top earner out of this group, we do know the following: Hargrave will be among the youngest heading into free agency (teams more willing to give longer+more lucrative deals) and is top three in tackles/sacks out of the aforementioned group.
Spotrac.com did a similar comparison to the numbers above in an attempt to find Hargrave's market value, which included finding players recent defensive tackles around Hargrave's age (Fletcher Cox, Grady Jarrett, Jurrell Casey and Sheldon Richardson) and comparing their contract status/statistics to find an estimate of what Hargrave could potentially be looking at.
His market value per Spotrac? A five year, $73.63 million deal with $14.5 million annually. That would put Hargrave as the 6th-highest paid defensive tackle in the league, and just outside of the top-50 earners in the league as well.
While that figure is significantly higher than his current paycheck, are those numbers conservative? If we suspect Hargrave to be paid like a top-five tackle in this group of players (which all the data suggests he will), he may be looking at another significant bump in pay. From 2018 to 2019, the average salary of the top five newly signed defensive tackles (we're including Donald's mega-deal to remain conservative) jumped from $13.7 to $16.9 million, an average of $3.2 million.
If you were to apply that increase from 2019 to 2020, the top five average salary would be $20.1 million. Spotrac's estimate of $14.5 million annually may even be a tad on the lower side, should recent trends continue (with a $200 million salary cap, there's a pretty swell chance).
Hargrave's Future in Pittsburgh
So we've ran the numbers, evaluated them and applied trends to try to determine a reasonable figure for Hargrave. The big question remains: Will the Steelers shell out this kind of dough to Hargrave?
Given their current cap predicament ($2.5 million in cap space to work with per OverTheCap, $1.5 million per Spotrac), they probably couldn't pay for a team fast-food trip. However, the Steelers can make a number of moves to free roughly $20 million in cap space for 2020.
The bad news for those wishing Hargrave to stay in Pittsburgh: The Steelers are undoubtedly focused on securing Dupree's future over Hargrave. Unfortunately, it's a stretch both Dupree and Hargrave are able to successfully be retained in the same offseason.
As of now, unless Hargrave really values playing in Pittsburgh over making lottery-type cash, the Steelers may not see Hargrave play another snap in black and gold. Perhaps Hargrave takes a small one or two year deal, or Dupree agrees to a lower number. We've seen crazier things in the ultimate reality show that is the National Football League.
However, players have a short window the make the money of their lifetime. You can't fault Hargrave for wanting better financial security, and as we've seen in the above text, all signs are pointing towards a major pay day for Hargrave.
