Do Steelers Have Enough Offensive Star Power to Compete?
After winning seven of the final nine games and just narrowly missing the postseason in 2022, the Pittsburgh Steelers' goals should be set higher in the Fall.
New general manager Omar Khan has received rave reviews in his first full offseason as general manager. Prior to the NFL Draft, he signed Isaac Seumalo and traded for Allen Robinson, both of whom are upgrades over who the Steelers were playing in those positions a year ago.
The NFL Draft weekend came and went, with Khan once again seemingly striking gold by adding a potential franchise left tackle in Broderick Jones while also having tight end Darnell Washington fall into their laps at the end of Day 2. Optimism is pretty high right now surrounding this team, and it's hard to disagree with that premise.
Pittsburgh has very clearly accomplished their number one goal this offseason: provide a strong foundation for Kenny Pickett to help him take a leap in his first full season as a starter.
Pickett would be the first to explain how fortunate he feels to be drafted to his "hometown" team, a proven, successful organization that has shown to be capable of surrounding its quarterback with valuable commodities, which is much more than you can say about some other landing spots. In the Steel City, there's always the main objective, which is a Super Bowl, but what are some realistic goals for this franchise in 2023?
Is it a wild card spot? Is it advancing to the conference championship game? Those answers would vary depending on who you'd ask.
One fair question that is worth dissecting is whether or not the Steelers have enough star power on offense to compete with the loaded AFC conference, which is spearheaded by most of the league's top signal callers. As mentioned above, the foundational groundwork has been laid for Pickett, but the NFL is a matchup league where scheme and play calling will only get you so far. It's no secret that the league has transitioned to being offensive-oriented over the past decade-plus, and you need true difference-makers on offense to bring home a trophy in February.
The word "elite" gets insanely overused on social media, but in this case, we'll say that it represents the top eight players at their respective positions. When you look around at other AFC teams with championship aspirations, there's a common theme: star power on offense.
Kansas City has the best player in the game in Patrick Mahomes, who needs no further introduction beyond that. They also just so happen to have the best receiving tight end in Travis Kelce, who is still successfully fending off father time.
Cincinnati is reaping the benefits of being terrible in consecutive seasons and nailing their top picks in the NFL Draft. Joe Burrow has become one of the best anticipatory and accurate throwers in the sport. Ja'Marr Chase is a dominant force with freakish athleticism on the outside, capable of taking games over by himself.
Buffalo has Josh Allen, one of the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks that the NFL has ever seen. Stefon Diggs is approaching 30 but is still rightfully regarded as one of, if not the best, route runner in the entire NFL.
If you asked a dozen people who cover the NFL to give you the AFC's best three teams, there's a good chance that most of them would land on these three in some order or another.
While it's completely fair to expect those three teams to return to the divisional round once again, how many people expected Jacksonville to join them in 2022?
The Jaguars went from having the number one overall pick to playing in Kansas City with a shot to go to the AFC championship game just a handful of months later. How did that happen? Well, over the course of the second half of the season, Trevor Lawrence started to play like the number one overall pick and vaulted his name into the "elite" conversation in his second season.
So where does that leave Pittsburgh?
Pickett wasn't nearly as highly regarded as a prospect as Lawrence was, and for as rough as Pickett's rookie season was during stretches, Lawrence struggled during his rookie campaign as well. Expecting Pickett to reach these heights in 2023 are quite lofty expectations but make no mistake about it, there's nothing that will turn the Steelers into contenders again quicker than him becoming one of the few quarterbacks in the league that you win because of.
If it's not at quarterback, where does the star power come from?
When you take a running back in the first round, you're expecting a true workhorse type of player and one that is a game-changing type of talent. Najee Harris hasn't been able to show that type of impact just yet for various reasons. It's no secret that he hasn't been blessed with the greatest of offensive line play thus far, and only four running backs saw more 8+ man boxes than Harris last season, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Having said that, back-to-back sub-4.0 yards per carry seasons doesn't exactly scream "elite," either. That doesn't mean he can't develop into that player in 2023, it's just that we don't have evidence of it just yet.
Then we head to the receiver room which is spearheaded by veteran Diontae Johnson. Opinions on Johnson are all over the place. Having said that, all you have to do is turn on the film to see that he's one of the best in the world at beating press coverage and then, in turn, separating down the field as one of the better route-running X receivers in the game.
Like Harris, he's also dealt with some difficult circumstances beyond his control, playing most of his career with shaky quarterback play in a bland system that requires a lot of him individually. On the flip side, Johnson can be a bit maddening with some head-scratching decisions and lapses in concentration that lead to drops and penalties. Johnson will win the majority of his one on one matchups, but he's not necessarily the game changer that dictates the way that defenses play either, something the Davante Adams' of the world have done for a while now. At 27 years old, he's a WR1, but can he take that next leap to the "elite" category? We shall see.
George Pickens had a monstrous rookie season as one of the league's best deep threats down the field. It's difficult to place a ceiling on such a young, talented phenom who's been impactful since he stepped foot onto an SEC campus. In 2023, Pickens's usage should expand to being deployed as more than just a vertical threat, but he needs to fine-tune his route running if he wants to become a better separator underneath.
As a rookie, he hauled in an astounding 68% of his contested catch opportunities, according to PFF. But to take that leap into superstardom, he'll need to succeed in other ways. His development is going to be fascinating to watch because there are essentially zero questions about his talent level.
Then there's Pat Freiermuth, the third-year tight end from Penn State who's been a rock-solid and steady contributor in his first two seasons.
He actually led the Steelers in yards after the catch, producing the Steelers' longest play from scrimmage with his catch and run against the Falcons in Week 13. If you compare Freiermuth's production against other tight ends, he's probably the closest thing to the "elite" category already.
In 2022, Freiermuth was fifth in first downs produced through the air and sixth in receiving yards. There is one caveat, however. He's a below-average run blocker, and with so much of his production coming out of the slot, it almost feels disingenuous to stack him to a guy like George Kittle, who's a key cog in the San Francisco 49ers run game. Still, Freiermuth deserves to get paid, and it's not crazy to think that he could stamp his name alongside the game's best as he continues to round out his game.
So do the Steelers have enough star power on offense to compete next season?
On paper, it might not look that way right now. But the NFL landscape changes very quickly; just ask Trevor Lawrence. With so much youth littered throughout the offensive side of the ball, it will be interesting to see which, if any, of these players can develop into star-level players. In the event that happens in 2023, Pittsburgh will be in a real position to make some noise in the postseason.
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