What Can Texans Learn From Jaylon Johnson Signing Extension?
Jaylon Johnson was always headed back to the Chicago Bears in 2024, especially after the NFC North club slapped a nonexclusive franchise tag on him just before the deadline.
Now, he's sticking around in the Windy City for the better part of his career.
Chicago and Johnson, who had been in extension talks for over a year, agreed to terms on a four-year, $76 million deal that includes $54 million in guaranteed money Thursday afternoon. He'll now serve as the backbone of Chicago's secondary in what hopes to be a brighter future moving into 2024.
But what does Johnson's contract have to do with the Houston Texans?
That's likely the new starting price for Derek Stingley Jr. entering 2025 should he continue to blossom under second-year coach DeMeco Ryans.
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Cornerback has become a necessity for franchises over the past decade. As more teams commit to elevating the passing attack, they also must invest in No. 1 receivers.
Defenses have to counteract, none so more than at cornerback. It's why teams like Chicago and Kansas City weren't willing to let Johnson or L'Jarius Sneed walk into free agency without receiving some high-value compensation in return.
Stingley, the No. 3 pick in the 2022 draft, made waves in Year 2 as Houston clinched its first division title in four years. While he did miss six games due to a hamstring injury, few corners were as potent in coverage when on the field.
Stingley finished with an 81.4 coverage grade, per Pro Football Focus, allowing 21 catches on 39 targets for 361 total yards. The former LSU standout also recorded five interceptions in forced an incompletion on 20.4 percent of his targets.
While under contract for at least two more seasons — three if Houston decides to pick up the fifth-year option — Stingley's success will raise the asking price. So will the market, depending on what Sneed and others make this offseason.
Johnson, who graded out as PFF's No. 1 corner in 2023, will earn $19 million annually. That won't reset the market — Green Bay’s Jaire Alexander ($21 million) and Cleveland's Denzel Ward ($100.5 million) hold those titles — but Johnson's $43.8 million marks the second-highest amount of money guaranteed at signing at the position.
Texans general manager Nick Caserio would be wise to get ahead of the market before it expands. Should Stingley stay healthy and prove his success in 11 games can translate to a full season, that might warrant talks of an extension following the 2024 campaign.
Teams like to maintain draft picks that succeed, showing there's proof in their drafting methods. One would have to imagine Stingley would likely love to be one of the building blocks of a regime ready to contend for an AFC title.
But as the value of cornerback rises in the league, so does the asking price.
Houston, which currently enters the 2025 offseason with over $205 million in cap space, has time before it has to pay other premium players like quarterback C.J. Stroud, defensive end Will Anderson Jr. and linebacker Christian Harris. The Texans first must secure a long-term deal with receiver Nico Collins, but Stingley likely is the next in-house candidate worthy of extension talks.
Bears general manager Ryan Poles said earlier this offseason he wouldn't part ways with Johnson unless he could draft someone with a similar skill set. Basically, Chicago would have to use one of its first-round picks on a cornerback to replace the second-team All-Pro and believe the prospect has a higher ceiling.
That wasn't going to happen after a 7-10 finish with needs elsewhere. Perhaps that's how Caserio views Stingley moving into Year 3; why try to duplicate a talent when paying top-dollar might benefit all parties in the long run?
Houston has time to determine what's Stingley's value. With Steven Nelson likely headed toward free agency, Stingley also has the opportunity to prove his upside as a bonafide prestige corner in the league.
The version of Stingley that took the field in 2023 could become one of the league's top shutdown corners in due time. The asking price and annual salary will expand with each pass breakup, interception, or game-saving touchdown play.
Johnson's deal could be the baseline for conversations with Stingley moving forward, and it could be a bargain price depending on how the market pans out in several years.
